Guntram B. Wolff

Senior fellow

Guntram Wolff is a Senior fellow at Bruegel. He is also a Professor of Public Policy and Economics at the Willy Brandt School of Public Policy. From 2022-2024, he was the Director and CEO of the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) and from 2013-22 the director of Bruegel. Over his career, he has contributed to research on European political economy, climate policy, geoeconomics, macroeconomics and foreign affairs. His work was published in academic journals such as Nature, Science, Research Policy, Energy Policy, Climate Policy, Journal of European Public Policy, Journal of Banking and Finance. His co-authored book “The macroeconomics of decarbonization” is published in Cambridge University Press.

An experienced public adviser, he has been testifying twice a year since 2013 to the informal European finance ministers’ and central bank governors’ ECOFIN Council meeting on a large variety of topics. He also regularly testifies to the European Parliament, the Bundestag and speaks to corporate boards. In 2020, Business Insider ranked him one of the 28 most influential “power players” in Europe. From 2012-16, he was a member of the French prime minister’s Conseil d’Analyse Economique. In 2018, then IMF managing director Christine Lagarde appointed him to the external advisory group on surveillance to review the Fund’s priorities. In 2021, he was appointed member and co-director to the G20 High level independent panel on pandemic prevention, preparedness and response under the co-chairs Tharman Shanmugaratnam, Lawrence H. Summers and Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala. From 2013-22, he was an advisor to the Mastercard Centre for Inclusive Growth. He is a member of the Bulgarian Council of Economic Analysis, the European Council on Foreign Affairs and  advisory board of Elcano.

Guntram joined Bruegel from the European Commission, where he worked on the macroeconomics of the euro area and the reform of euro area governance. Prior to joining the Commission, he worked in the research department at the Bundesbank, which he joined after completing his PhD in economics at the University of Bonn. He also worked as an external adviser to the International Monetary Fund. He is fluent in German, English, and French. His work is regularly published and cited in leading media. 

Disclaimer of external interests

Declaration of interests 2021

Declaration of interests 2020

Declaration of interests 2019

Declaration of interests 2018

Declaration of interests 2017

Declaration of interests 2016

Declaration of interests 2015

Declaration of interests 2014

Declaration of interests 2013

Declaration of interests 2012

Featured work

Working paper

Greeniums in sovereign bond markets

In this paper, we analyse whether green sovereign bonds are systematically priced differently to conventional sovereign bonds in the secondary markets

Monika De Ridder (Grzegorczyk) and Guntram B. Wolff
Opinion piece

Ukraine needs external financial assistance now

Planning Ukraine’s reconstruction tomorrow is important but meeting its financial needs today is more pressing and requires urgent action.

Arancha González Laya, Gabriel Felbermayr, Moritz Schularick, Shahin Vallée and Guntram B. Wolff
Opinion piece

The EU without Russian oil and gas

The EU and the West need to acknowledge and accept the fact that European liberal democracy is being defended in Ukraine – a clearer message to Putin

Guntram B. Wolff
External publication

The Kremlin’s gas wars

How Europe can protect itself from Russian blackmail.

Georg Zachmann, Guntram B. Wolff, Simone Tagliapietra and Niclas Poitiers
Book

Greening Europe’s post-COVID-19 recovery

This Blueprint includes some of the Group’s most prominent voices on the different aspects of the multidimensional issue of green recovery.

Jean Pisani-Ferry, Georg Zachmann, Guntram B. Wolff, Laurence Boone, Simone Tagliapietra, Ottmar Edenhofer, Thomas Wieser, Ian Parry, Antoine Dechezleprêtre, Klaas Lenaerts, Robert Stavins, Mirjam Kosch, Michael Pahle, Laurence Tubiana, Sabine Mauderer and Tomasz Koźluk
Book

Instruments of a strategic foreign economic policy

Study for the German Federal Foreign Office produced by Bruegel, the Kiel Institute for the World Economy and DIW Berlin.

Georg Zachmann, Guntram B. Wolff, Marcel Fratzscher, Kerstin Bernoth, Gabriel Felbermayr, Niclas Poitiers, Alexander Sandkamp, Mia Hoffmann, Pauline Weil, Katrin Kamin, Malte Rieth, Jacqueline Dombrowski, Sebastian Horn and Karsten Neuhoff
External publication

A Global Deal for Our Pandemic Age

Report of the G20 High Level Independent Panel on Financing the Global Commons for Pandemic Preparedness and Response.

Lucrezia Reichlin, Guntram B. Wolff, Jean-Claude Trichet, Min ZHU, Tharman Shanmugaratnam, Ana Botin, Masood Ahmed, Vera Songwe, Jeremy Farrar, Lawrence H. Summers, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Jacob Frenkel, Rebeca Grynspan, Naoko Ishii, Michael Kremer, Kira Mazumdar-Shaw, Luis Alberto Moreno, John-Arne Røttingen, Mark Suzman, Tidjane Thiam, Ngaire Woods and Victor Dzau
Event

The state strikes back

COVID-19 has caused a resurgence of the role of the state. What role should state owned firms and banks play and how can their management be improved?

External publication

Employment and COVID-19

Testimony before the Economic Affairs Committee at the House of Lords, British Parliament on Employment and COVID-19.

Guntram B. Wolff
Event

Reopening: Brussels

As European borders reopen, we conducted a “temperature reading” of diverse actors about the local impact of the Covid-19 response.

Opinion piece

Disease, like poverty, does not stay at home

To fight the Covid-19 pandemic, best practice responses in Africa need to be implemented around international collaboration. These include the need to

Guntram B. Wolff, Karim El Aynaoui, Yonas Adeto, Thomas Gomart, Paolo Magri, Greg Mills and Karin Von Hippel
Event

Bruegel Annual Meetings 2019

Bruegel's 2019 Annual Meetings will be held on 4-5 September and feature the launch of Bruegel's Memos to the New European Commission.

Opinion piece

Europe should avoid a no-deal Brexit

The UK government finally tabled a serious proposal for the country’s future relationship with the European Union (EU). The White Paper puts the ball

Jean Pisani-Ferry, André Sapir, Guntram B. Wolff, Norbert Röttgen and Paul Tucker
Opinion piece

Making Italy grow again

On March 4th, Italians sent a resounding message in favour of a break with the past. The ultimate test for the new ‘government of change’ will be whet

Guntram B. Wolff, Alessio Terzi and Simone Tagliapietra
Article

Future of EMU

On 8 March 2018, Guntram B. Wolff discussed the opportunity and options to upgrade the European Monetary Union in his Testimony at the Swedish Parliam

Guntram B. Wolff
Opinion piece

Europa sinnvoll gestalten

Die Debatte um die Zukunft Europas sollte gerade in Deutschland konstruktiv geführt werden. Es profitiert von einer stabilen EU und trägt entscheidend

Guntram B. Wolff
Event

The future of the EU budget

What do we want to achieve with the EU budget? Is the current composition of expenditures appropriate? How can we assess the effectiveness of EU spend

Blog post

Brazil can learn from Spain: don't delay adjustment

Brazil’s economic crisis has much in common with Spain’s crisis from 2009 – 2012. The IMF and the global community must work together to ensure a stab

Guntram B. Wolff and Alicia García-Herrero
Opinion piece

The refugee crisis: A European call for action

Open Letter by the conveners of the Vision Europe Summit regarding the refugee
crisis in Europe and the necessity to act now.

Guntram B. Wolff, Aart de Geus, Artur Santos Silva, Mikko Kosonen, Piero Gastaldo, Robin Niblett and Yves Bertoncini
Opinion piece

The economic consequences of Schengen

The president of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, recently warned that “without Schengen and the free movement of workers, of citizens, t

Guntram B. Wolff
Event

Completing the Banking Union

The Five Presidents’ report published in July 2015 argues that completing the banking union should be one of the most immediate steps of the broader p

Event

Bruegel's Annual Dinner

The Annual Dinner is a closed-door session which offers Bruegel members and partners the opportunity to discuss the European economics in a relaxed an

Blog post

Choices after the Greferendum

On Sunday, with a sizeable majority, the Greek people voted down the proposals of the country’s official lenders. What’s next? We see three main optio

Zsolt Darvas and Guntram B. Wolff
Opinion piece

#Greferendum: 3 Questions, 3 Answers

Guntram Wolff replies to three questions in the aftermath of the announced results of the Greek referendum of 5 July 2015.

Guntram B. Wolff
Opinion piece

What is at stake in the referendum?

The decision by the prime minister to call a referendum leaves the Greek citizens with a stark choice. The core of the question is whether Greek citiz

Guntram B. Wolff
Blog post

A tale of floods and dams

A lot of debate has recently focused on the management of the fiscal crisis in Greece and whether or not the speed of adjustment has been too fast or

Guntram B. Wolff
Opinion piece

A new start for Greece

Greece's new government under prime minister Alexis Tsipras – in power for not even two weeks – has had a rollercoaster ride. In the face of crisis, i

Guntram B. Wolff
Blog post

Limits to the Greek bank run

An important question has emerged this week as regards the role of the ECB as a lender of last resort to banks in Greece. The press has widely reporte

Guntram B. Wolff
Blog post

The ECB has fired its bazooka

The ECB announced today an expansion of its asset purchases, to include securities issued by European agencies and institutions, as well as central go

Guntram B. Wolff and Silvia Merler
Opinion piece

Die EZB ist verpflichtet, ihr Mandat zu erfüllen

Die Sorgen über die Auswirkungen und die Effektivität des Programms sind groß. Die EZB muss vorsichtig die Kosten und Risiken – vor allem die Umvertei

Guntram B. Wolff and Marcel Fratzscher
Opinion piece

Sovereign QE and national central banks

Inflation continues to fall. The first outright deflation numbers since 2009 have been recorded and inflation expectations are clearly dis-anchored. I

Guntram B. Wolff
Blog post

Why Grexit would not help Greece

The genie is out of the bottle: Europe is again discussing the possibility of Greece leaving the euro. With it, the debate has re-emerged whether this

Guntram B. Wolff
Opinion piece

France and Germany: a moment of truth

France and Germany, which together account for half of euro-area GDP, are rightly considered the key to the euro area’s exit from the current impasse

Agnès Bénassy-Quéré and Guntram B. Wolff
Opinion piece

Europe's fiscal wormhole

The fulfillment of policy rules appears to be impossible without growth, but growth appears to be impossible without breaking the rules.

Guntram B. Wolff
Opinion piece

In defense of OMT ahead of Karlsruhe

Next week, the German constitutional court will debate and consider the legality of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) and the ECB’s Outright Mone

Guntram B. Wolff
Blog post

Wealth distribution in the eurozone

The eurosystem has worked for a number of years now on a very comprehensive survey, called Household Finance and Consumption Network (HFCN). Data will

Guntram B. Wolff
External publication

Tax harmonization in Europe: Moving forward

The debate on tax competition opposes those who praise its positive effect on government efficiency, and those who accuse it of distorting public choi

Agnès Bénassy-Quéré and Guntram B. Wolff
Blog post

Juncker's first move

One early move that Juncker should make is to do away with the current European Commission college structure of one portfolio for each of the 28 membe

André Sapir and Guntram B. Wolff
External publication

No Industry, no Future?

Can there be a future without industry? Answering this question is not considered as obvious in this Note. Reflection appears to be essential with reg

Guntram B. Wolff
Blog post

Addressing weak inflation: The ECB’s shopping list

In this blogpost, we summarize our recently published paper, in which we discuss in detail the dilemmas for the ECB and the need to act. Inflation for

Zsolt Darvas, Guntram B. Wolff, Silvia Merler and Grégory Claeys
Book

Japan and the EU in the global economy

This report analyses economic issues facing Japan and Europe. It identifies some of the channels through which Europe can learn from Japan, and viceve

André Sapir, Zsolt Darvas, Guntram B. Wolff, Kiyohiko Nishimura, Michael Plummer, Wataru Takahashi and Masahiko Yoshii
Policy brief

The long haul: managing exit from financial assistance

Countries can make a clean exit from financial assistance, or enter a new programme or a precautionary programme, depending on the sustainability of t

André Sapir, Zsolt Darvas and Guntram B. Wolff
Opinion piece

Taking the mandate of the ECB seriously

The ECB must achieve price stability in the euro area and contribute to the general economic objectives of the Union, if its price stability mandate a

Guntram B. Wolff and Marcel Fratzscher
Opinion piece

2014 Financial Odyssey

The European Banking Union matures in 2014, with the ECB assuming its role as single supervisor. This column outlines the transition to the new steady

Guntram B. Wolff and Silvia Merler
Video

Bruegel year in review - 2013

Jean Pisani-Ferry, André Sapir, Zsolt Darvas, Reinhilde Veugelers, Georg Zachmann, Guntram B. Wolff, Karen Wilson, Mario Mariniello and Suparna Karmakar
External publication

Aufbruch in die Euro-Union

Warum ohne mehr Integration weitere Krisen drohen. Elf deutsche Ökonomen, Politologen und Juristen – die Glienicker Gruppe – entwickeln Vorschläge für

Jakob von Weizsäcker and Guntram B. Wolff
Opinion piece

A new way for Germany and Europe

When the new German government takes over, it should not wait for long until it makes the euro area a central topic on its agenda.

Guntram B. Wolff
Opinion piece

The euro area needs a German miracle

Recent sentiment indicators of the euro area are encouraging but return to lasting health of the euro area economy will still require major further st

Guntram B. Wolff
Blog post

More fiscal union, differentiated austerity

This column argues that recent discussions on self-defeating austerity neglect the monetary union dimension of fiscal policy. National auste

Guntram B. Wolff
Opinion piece

Mehr Augen sehen mehr

Soll Deutschland einer gemeinsamen Bankenaufsicht auf EU-Ebene zustimmen, oder gibt Berlin dadurch zu viele Kompetenzen auf?

Guntram B. Wolff
Blog post

Which way for the ECB?

Ahead of the ECB meeting, the debate on the right course for euro area macroeconomic policies has re-emerged. An interesting new feature of the debate

Guntram B. Wolff
Blog post

Inequality and adjustment in Europe

Inequality differs across Europe. Some countries in major economic adjustment have been hit hard by an increase in inequality together with an increas

Guntram B. Wolff
Blog post

Europe’s banks need to be recapitalised – now

Europe’s growth performance was disappointing before the financial crisis. It has been dismal since. Five years into the “great recession”, the r

Jean Pisani-Ferry, Zsolt Darvas and Guntram B. Wolff
Blog post

The multiplier myth

Many international economists have recently claimed that fiscal multipliers are much larger now than in normal times. The economic recession in Europe

Guntram B. Wolff
Blog post

Will Europe pay for Japan?

As the Bank of Japan is rolling out its new programme of quantitative easing, a significant debate about the impact on Europe is emerging. Is Japan en

Guntram B. Wolff
Blog post

Banking union for non-EA countries

In a recent blog entry we estimated the total assets and number of banks in the euro area underdirect ECB supervision according to the agreed criteria

Guntram B. Wolff
Blog post

A banking union of 180 or 91%?

The European finance ministers have agreed on a deal for the banking union. According to the deal, the ECB would be directly responsible for banks wit

Guntram B. Wolff
External publication

Policy Lessons from the Eurozone Crisis

Co-authored by Chiara Angeloni and Silvia Merler.
The current European crisis has shed light on several weaknesses and the institutional incompletenes

Guntram B. Wolff and Silvia Merler
External publication

An Assessment of the European Semester

This study assesses the European Semester’s effectiveness and legitimacy. We provide evidence based on a survey sent to all 27 National Parliaments, w

Benedicta Marzinotto, Guntram B. Wolff and Mark Hallerberg
Policy brief

What kind of European banking union?

This policy contribution discusses in detail how a future banking union could be organised by examining seven fundamental choices that decision makers

Jean Pisani-Ferry, André Sapir, Nicolas Véron and Guntram B. Wolff
Policy brief

Arithmetic is absolute: euro area adjustment

The European Central Bank’s monetary policy targets the euro-area average inflation rate. By setting conditions for the area as a whole it should ensu

Guntram B. Wolff
Policy brief

Propping up Europe?

This Policy Contribution is based on a briefing paper prepared for the European Parliament Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee’s Monetary Dialogue

Jean Pisani-Ferry and Guntram B. Wolff
Policy brief

The messy rebuilding of Europe

The euro crisis and subsequent policy responses have challenged the assumptions underpinning the euro-area's governance, and the relationship bet

Jean Pisani-Ferry, André Sapir and Guntram B. Wolff
Blog post

Spain and the fiscal compact

The announcement by Mariano Rajoy, the Spanish prime minister, not to stick to the fiscal target agreed by the previous government is likely to be a g

Guntram B. Wolff
Blog post

Collateral is key for target debate

In my letter of June 8 2011 to the FT, I had argued that the lack of collateral will limit flows of the eurosystem to the periphery and thereby limi

Guntram B. Wolff
Working paper

The debt challenge in Europe

The euro area faces a double challenge: debt overhang and the need for price adjustment. This paper reviews the debt challenges in the household and c

Alan Ahearne and Guntram B. Wolff
Book

An evaluation of IMF surveillance of the euro area

This report evaluates International Monetary Fund surveillance of the euro area in the years before the financial crisis and during 2008-10.

Jean Pisani-Ferry, André Sapir and Guntram B. Wolff
Working paper

Rules and risk in the euro area

In this working paper, with a unique data set summarising the quality of rules-based fiscal governance in European Union member states, the author

Guntram B. Wolff