Working paper

The effect of COVID certificates on vaccine uptake, public health, and the economy

An analysis of the incentive effects of COVID certificates on vaccine uptake, health outcomes and the economy.

Publishing date
17 January 2022

This preprint is currently under review and is co-published by Bruegel.

doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-1242919/v1

In the COVID-19 pandemic, governments have, among other measures, mandated the use of COVID certificates to prove vaccination, recovery or a recent negative test, and have required individuals to show certificates to access shops, restaurants, and education or workplaces. While arguments for and against COVID certificates have focused on reducing transmission and ethical concerns, the incentive effects of COVID certificates on vaccine uptake, health outcomes and the economy has not yet been investigated. To estimate these effects, we construct counterfactuals based on innovation diffusion theory for France, Germany and Italy. We estimate that the announcement of COVID certificates during summer 2021 led to increased vaccine uptake in France of 13.0 (95% CI 9.7–14.9) percentage points (p.p.) of the total population up to the end of the year, in Germany 6.2 (2.6–6.9) p.p., and in Italy 9.7 (5.4–12.3) p.p. Further, this averted an additional 3,979 (3,453–4,298) deaths in France, 1,133 (-312–1,358) in Germany, and 1,331 (502–1,794) in Italy; and prevented gross domestic product (GDP) losses of €6.0 (5.9–6.1) billion in France, €1.4 (1.3–1.5) billion in Germany, and €2.1 (2.0–2.2) billion in Italy. Notably, the application of COVID certificates substantially reduced the pressure on intensive care units (ICUs) and, in France, prevented occupancy levels being exceeded where prior lockdowns were instated. Varying government communication efforts and restrictions associated with COVID certificates may explain country differences, such as the smaller effect in Germany. Overall, our findings are more sizeable than predicted. This analysis may help inform decisions about when and how to employ COVID certificates to increase vaccine uptake and thus avoid stringent interventions, such as closures, curfews, and lockdowns, with major social and economic consequences.

 

Recommended citation:

Oliu-Barton, M., B.S.R. Pradelski, N. Woloszko, L. Guetta-Jeanrenaud, P. Aghion, P. Artus, A. Fontanet, P. Martin and G.B. Wolff (2022) ‘The effect of COVID certificates on vaccine uptake, health outcomes and the economy’, Working Paper 01/2022, Bruegel

About the authors

  • Philippe Aghion

    Philippe Aghion, a Non-resident Senior Fellow since September 2006 to 2016, was coordinating Bruegel's research project on higher education.

    He is the Robert C. Waggoner Professor of Economics at Harvard University, where he started teaching Economics in 2000. Previously, he held positions at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) and taught at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Nuffield College (Oxford), and University College London.

    Philippe's research spans a broad array of fields including corporate finance, industrial organisation, political economy and macroeconomics. He is managing editor of the journal The Economics of Transition, which he launched in 1992.

  • Guntram B. Wolff

    Guntram Wolff is a Senior fellow at Bruegel. He is also a Professor of Public Policy and Economics at the Willy Brandt School of Public Policy. From 2022-2024, he was the Director and CEO of the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) and from 2013-22 the director of Bruegel. Over his career, he has contributed to research on European political economy, climate policy, geoeconomics, macroeconomics and foreign affairs. His work was published in academic journals such as Nature, Science, Research Policy, Energy Policy, Climate Policy, Journal of European Public Policy, Journal of Banking and Finance. His co-authored book “The macroeconomics of decarbonization” is published in Cambridge University Press.

    An experienced public adviser, he has been testifying twice a year since 2013 to the informal European finance ministers’ and central bank governors’ ECOFIN Council meeting on a large variety of topics. He also regularly testifies to the European Parliament, the Bundestag and speaks to corporate boards. In 2020, Business Insider ranked him one of the 28 most influential “power players” in Europe. From 2012-16, he was a member of the French prime minister’s Conseil d’Analyse Economique. In 2018, then IMF managing director Christine Lagarde appointed him to the external advisory group on surveillance to review the Fund’s priorities. In 2021, he was appointed member and co-director to the G20 High level independent panel on pandemic prevention, preparedness and response under the co-chairs Tharman Shanmugaratnam, Lawrence H. Summers and Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala. From 2013-22, he was an advisor to the Mastercard Centre for Inclusive Growth. He is a member of the Bulgarian Council of Economic Analysis, the European Council on Foreign Affairs and  advisory board of Elcano.

    Guntram joined Bruegel from the European Commission, where he worked on the macroeconomics of the euro area and the reform of euro area governance. Prior to joining the Commission, he worked in the research department at the Bundesbank, which he joined after completing his PhD in economics at the University of Bonn. He also worked as an external adviser to the International Monetary Fund. He is fluent in German, English, and French. His work is regularly published and cited in leading media. 

  • Philippe Martin

    Philippe Martin is Professor of Economics at Sciences Po in Paris. He currently serves as the head of the Department of Economics at Sciences Po and is a research fellow at the London-based CEPR (Centre for Economic Policy Research). He previously taught at the University of Paris 1 Pantheon-Sorbonne and the Paris School of Economics. From 2001 to 2002, he served as an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Martin's research focuses on international trade and macroeconomics, in addition to economic geography. In 2002, he was awarded the Prix du meilleur jeune économiste de France, a prize awarded yearly to a French economist under forty years of age "who has combined recognized expertise with an active participation to the public debate," along with Thomas Piketty.

    He also works as a columnist for the French daily Libération.

  • Lionel Guetta-Jeanrenaud

    Lionel worked at Bruegel as a Research Assistant until August 2022. He studied economics at the Ecole normale supérieure de Lyon, in France. Before joining Bruegel, Lionel worked as a research assistant at the Department of Economics of Harvard University.

    His Master’s thesis investigated the impact of newspaper closures on anti-government sentiment in the United States. In addition to media economics and political economy, his research interests include fiscal policy and the digital economy.

    Lionel is a dual French and American citizen.

  • Bary Pradelski

  • Miquel Oliu-Barton

    Miquel Oliu-Barton is a non-resident fellow at Bruegel. He is also an associate professor of economics at Paris-Dauphine University. 

    Game theorist by training, Miquel has led numerous policy and scientific publications (Lancet, Lancet Global Health, Nature Communications, BMJ) that were cited in leading international media including CNN, Financial Times, New York Times and Le Monde. His work builds on multidisciplinary collaborations between scientists and policy-makers from different countries. At Bruegel, he is part of Europe’s governance team.

    Miquel graduated from the Ecole normale supérieure in mathematics, holds a Ph.D. from Sorbonne University, and was recently a visiting Professor at Yale University. He is fluent in English, French, Spanish and Italian.

    https://sites.google.com/site/oliubarton/

    Disclosure of external interests

    Declaration of interest 2023

    Declaration of interest 2022

  • Nicolas Woloszko

  • Patrick Artus

  • Arnaud Fontanet

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