Bruegel Annual Meetings, 6-7 September 2023

A symphony in progress: shaping a new agenda for Europe

Time and location: 6–7 September 2023 Bozar, Rue Ravenstein 23, 1000 Brussels
Format: Public, Hybrid, On the record, Livestreamed
Contact: Matilda Sevón Katja Knezević Anastasiia Zaitseva

The Annual Meetings is Bruegel's flagship event, where we host high-level speakers to discuss the most pressing economic issues of our time. The Annual Meetings is one of the first big policy events in Brussels after the summer break and helps shape the conversation in the coming months.

Europe has come through 2022 better than most of us had feared. The human and economic toll of Russia’s war on Ukraine has been immense, but Russia was beaten back. Energy prices surged to previously unimaginable highs, but markets remained functional. Inflation reached its highest level since the creation of the euro, but has since started to drop. A much-predicted recession has not materialised. Old divisions between EU members re-emerged, but ultimately did not prevent a common response. In a structural sense, however, Europe’s challenges remain more daunting than they have been in many decades. Some progress has been made, yet nothing has been solved. The war goes on, the energy situation remains fragile, protectionism is on the rise, competitiveness is eroding, EU governance problems remain unresolved, geopolitical tensions are worsening, and the world may be losing the race against climate change.

2023-2024 is the year where we shift back the conversation from how to survive the next few months to how to work forward the next decade. We should be talking not only about the themes that are defining the end of this European electoral cycle, but also about the coming one. This was the conversation we had at this year’s Bruegel Annual Meetings.

Speakers

José Antonio Álvarez

Vice-Chair, Grupo Santander; Vice-Chair, Banco Santander, Brasil, Banco Santander

Richard Baldwin

Professor of International Economics, IMD Business School

John Berrigan

Director-General, European Commission, European Commission, DG FISMA

Suman Bery

Non-resident fellow (on leave for public service)

Andreas Billmeier

Chief European economist, Brevan Howard

Leonhard Birnbaum

CEO, E.ON

Thierry Breton

European Commissioner for Internal Market, European Commission

Wanda Buk

Vice-President for Regulatory Affairs, PGE

Nadia Calviño

First Vicepresident of Spain and Minister for Economy and Digitalization, Spain

Grégory Claeys

Senior fellow (on leave for public service)

Joanna Cound

Head of Global Public Policy Group, BlackRock

Zsolt Darvas

Senior fellow

Maria Demertzis

Senior fellow

Sharon Donnery

Deputy Governor, Central Bank of Ireland

Lorenzo Giussani

Director for Electricity Generation and Trade, a2a

Montserrat Gomendio

Research Professor, CSIC (Spanish Research Council)

Heather Grabbe

Senior fellow

Veronika Grimm

Member, German Council of Economic Experts

Duygu Güner

Affiliate fellow

Hinda Haned

Professor by special appointment of Data Science, University of Amsterdam

Alicia García-Herrero

Senior fellow

Judith Hermes

Director General European Policy, International Financial Policy, Federal Ministry of Finance, Germany

Robert Holzmann

Governor, Oesterreichische Nationalbank

Marjeta Jager

Deputy Director-General, International Partnerships (INTPA), European Commission

Beata Javorcik

Member of the Scientific Council

Chief Economist, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development

Ditte Juul Jørgensen

Director-General, European Commission, DG ENER

Sunjoy Joshi

Chairman, Observer Research Foundation

Gert Jan Koopman

Director General, DG NEAR, European Commission

Bo Li

Deputy Managing Director, International Monetary Fund

Syaru Shirley Lin

Chair, CAPRI, Center for Asia-Pacific Resilience and Innovation

Rachel Lomax

Member of the Board

Bertin Martens

Senior fellow

Beatrice Weder di Mauro

President, Centre for Economic Policy Research

Professor of International Economics, Graduate Institute of Geneva

President, CEPR

Ann Mettler

Vice President, Europe, Breakthrough Energy

Jorrit van der Meulen

Vice President, Amazon EU Retail

Mairead McGuinness

European Commissioner for Financial Stability, Financial Services and the Capital Markets Union, European Commission

Milena Mihajlovic

Programme Director, European Policy Centre (CEP)

Monika Queisser

Head of Social Policy Division, OECD

Jean Pisani-Ferry

Senior fellow

Laurent Probst

Partner, PwC

Lucrezia Reichlin

Non-resident fellow

Maria Repko

Deputy Director, Centre for Economic Strategy (CES)

Teresa Ribera

Minister for the Ecological Transition, Spain,

John A. Rolle

Governor, Central Bank of The Bahamas

Jeremy Rollison

Senior Director of EU Government Affairs, Microsoft

Alexandra Roulet

(remotely)

Assistant professor, INSEAD

Former advisor, Private Office of the President, France

André Sapir

Senior fellow

Nicolas Schmit

European Commissioner for Jobs and Social Rights, European Commission

Brad W. Setser

Whitney Shepardson senior fellow, Council on Foreign Relations

Andrea Sironi

Chairman of the Board, Generali

Tinne Van der Straeten

Minister for Energy, Belgium

Rolf Strauch

Chief Economist and Management Board Member, European Stability Mechanism

Simone Tagliapietra

Senior fellow

Laurence Tubiana

Chief Executive Officer, European Climate Foundation

Kurt Vandenberghe

Director General of DG CLIMA, European Commission

Nicolas Véron

Senior fellow

Guntram B. Wolff

Senior fellow

Georg Zachmann

Senior fellow

Kai Zenner

Head of Office and Digital Policy Adviser for MEP Axel Voss, EPP, European Parliament

Jeromin Zettelmeyer

Director

Bruegel

Chair: Jeromin Zettelmeyer, Director
Nadia Calviño, First Vicepresident of Spain and Minister for Economy and Digitalization, Spain

The VP´s intervention will focus on the priorities of the Spanish presidency, with special emphasis on the agenda of the upcoming Informal Meeting of Economy and Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors which will take place in Santiago de Compostela from 15-16 September. As for the priorities of the Spanish presidency, she will focus on the following: i) Deepening the economic and monetary Union ii) Strengthening competitiveness of EU companies and reinforcing our strategic autonomy and iii) the EU as a global actor. Regarding the informal meeting in Santiago, the presidency has invited 33 ministers from Latin America and the Caribbean to discuss implementation of the Global Gateway Investment Agenda and the reform of the Multilateral Financial System, including Multilateral Development Banks. Other issues to be discussed among European participants include interaction between fiscal and monetary policy in the current juncture and strategic autonomy, economic security and the provision of EU public goods.

Add to calendar

Chair: Grégory Claeys, Senior fellow (on leave for public service)
Judith Hermes, Director General European Policy, International Financial Policy, Federal Ministry of Finance, Germany
Alexandra Roulet, Assistant professor , INSEAD; Former advisor , Private Office of the President, France
Andrea Sironi, Chairman of the Board, Generali
Rolf Strauch, Chief Economist and Management Board Member, European Stability Mechanism

The European macroeconomic governance framework has evolved radically in the last decade. In 2022, the EBD announced the creation of a Transmission Protection Instrument to avoid pure liquidity crises in euro-area sovereign bond markets. The ESM and the ECB’s OMT, created in 2012, are available to aid countries at a high risk of insolvency. The COVID-19 crisis led to the creation of a sophisticated but temporary EU borrowing facility to finance the recovery plan. A new fiscal framework to ensure debt sustainability and a revamped macro imbalance procedure are currently debated fiercely in the Council. What pieces of the puzzle are still missing, and what aspects of macroeconomic architecture should the next Commission focus on?

Chair: Bertin Martens, Senior fellow
Hinda Haned, Professor by special appointment of Data Science, University of Amsterdam
Jeremy Rollison, Senior Director of EU Government Affairs, Microsoft
Kai Zenner, Head of Office and Digital Policy Adviser for MEP Axel Voss, EPP, European Parliament

This year's highlight is the remarkable performance of AI tech like ChatGPT, also known as generative AI. These versatile models are employed across various domains, adaptable with specialised data and custom plugins. Operated by human language or prompts, they've sparked "prompt engineering" helping to democratise programming. Progressing towards General AI, they enhance human-AI synergy and rivalry, yet are susceptible to errors, even harmful ones, prompting calls for regulation. The EU has finalised an AI Act to address these models, though some caution against excessive regulation for fear of hampering innovation and competitiveness. We delve into generative AI's potential, challenges, and fitting policy approaches at this event.

Chair: Jeromin Zettelmeyer, Director
Richard Baldwin, Professor of International Economics, IMD Business School

International trade is facing unprecedented stress from multiple directions, yet we cannot afford to let the world trade system languish. The significant challenges confronting humanity jeopardise lives as well as livelihoods. Climate change, the pandemic, and persistent economic inequalities risk tearing communities apart, igniting social upheaval and nurturing extremist politics within nations. Among nations, these same factors generate tensions that could fracture the global economy, lead to trade wars, or even escalate to military conflict. While trade alone can't solve these problems, there will be no solutions without a solid international trade system with the WTO at its core.

Chair: Jean Pisani-Ferry, Senior fellow
Teresa Ribera, Minister for the Ecological Transition, Spain
Tinne Van der Straeten, Minister for Energy , Belgium
Leonhard Birnbaum, CEO, E.ON
Simone Tagliapietra, Senior fellow
Laurence Tubiana, Chief Executive Officer, European Climate Foundation
Kurt Vandenberghe, Director General of DG CLIMA , European Commission

The von der Leyen Commission successfully pivoted the EU towards climate neutrality. In a less auspicious political climate, the next Commission will have to ensure implementation. That will be challenging. The current EU energy and climate governance architecture is based on the premise that Member States abide by their commitments. But will they? Europe cannot afford to have a grand climate strategy and simultaneously remain in the dark when it comes to its implementation, because the whole decarbonisation process could be endangered. To avoid this risk, the EU must develop a new energy and climate governance which is fit for its increased climate ambition and for the renewed challenges it faces on energy security and energy competitiveness.

Chair: Alicia García-Herrero, Senior fellow
Sunjoy Joshi, Chairman, Observer Research Foundation
Syaru Shirley Lin, Chair, CAPRI, Center for Asia-Pacific Resilience and Innovation
Brad W. Setser, Whitney Shepardson senior fellow, Council on Foreign Relations
Guntram B. Wolff, Senior fellow

Great power competition is rising. The US and China, at the centre of this competition, are feeding an already ongoing process of slowbalisation. The EU and India are pushing for a multipolar world and especially in the case of the EU, the return to multilateralism. How can the EU navigate this new reality, which includes mitigating economic fragmentation while still paying attention to excessive dependence on a single source, which is the core value of the EU’s current policy on China? Meanwhile, India would like to usurp China as the leader of the global South. How these trends affect the US’s and China’s ambitions will be discussed in this panel.

Chair: Maria Demertzis, Senior fellow
José Antonio Álvarez, Vice-Chair, Grupo Santander; Vice-Chair, Banco Santander, Brasil, Banco Santander
Mairead McGuinness, European Commissioner for Financial Stability, Financial Services and the Capital Markets Union, European Commission
John A. Rolle, Governor, Central Bank of The Bahamas

More than 110 countries are at some stage of developing digital equivalents of cash, known as Central Bank Digital Currencies. The European Central Bank will be deliberating this autumn whether it should pursue the creation of the digital euro to exist alongside cash. What is the value added of digital cash? What problems do they solve? And what is the experience so far of countries that have already introduced them? What is their geopolitical relevance and how will they affect the current financial system?

Chair: André Sapir, Senior fellow
Thierry Breton, European Commissioner for Internal Market, European Commission
Beata Javorcik, Member of the Scientific Council
Ann Mettler, Vice President, Europe, Breakthrough Energy
Jorrit van der Meulen, Vice President, Amazon EU Retail

As a recent IMF note has warned, after several decades of increasing global integration, the world is now facing the risk of policy-driven geopolitical fragmentation. This poses several difficult questions to the EU, not least because it has always championed trade openness and multilateralism not only for economic but also political reasons. How should the EU behave in this new era of geopolitical rivalry and great power competition? Should it embrace partnerships with like-minded countries even at the expense of multilateralism and policies to increase economic security even if they are protectionist and contradict WTO rules?

Chair: Duygu Güner, Affiliate fellow
Montserrat Gomendio, Research Professor , CSIC (Spanish Research Council)
Monika Queisser, Head of Social Policy Division, OECD
Laurent Probst, Partner, PwC
Nicolas Schmit, European Commissioner for Jobs and Social Rights, European Commission

Whether it is the adoption of new technologies or green production practices, the skills gap is one of the main barriers hindering the twin transition. Effectively matching the dynamic skill demand necessitates fundamental transformations within our labour markets and education systems. Nevertheless, while the ability of training and education systems to accumulate necessary human capital is crucial, the low labour market attachment of vulnerable groups needs to be addressed as well. To close the skills gap, alleviate labour shortages and prevent further polarisation of the workforce, promoting the labour market participation of vulnerable groups is essential. Advocating for an inclusive approach, in this session we will delve into the topic and seek out strategies that ensure the skills revolution benefits all.

Chair: Heather Grabbe, Senior fellow
Beatrice Weder di Mauro, President, Centre for Economic Policy Research; Professor of International Economics, Graduate Institute of Geneva; President, CEPR
Bo Li, Deputy Managing Director, International Monetary Fund
Marjeta Jager, Deputy Director-General, International Partnerships (INTPA), European Commission
Suman Bery, Non-resident fellow (on leave for public service)

How can Europe best support the decarbonisation of the Global South? The EU’s own emissions will decline to under 5% of the global total if it meets its 2030 targets. But the EU needs to support the process of moving from fossil fuels to renewables also on other continents, not least because European economies drive emissions on other continents by importing products made with dirty energy. This session will consider the means to channel support, including finance and debt relief, new mechanisms such as Just Energy Transition Partnerships, and creating incentives for private investment. The speakers will also explore whether international trade of carbon permits could become politically and institutionally implementable, potential governance frameworks for carbon dioxide removals, and the scope for EU-US cooperation on supporting global decarbonisation.

Chair: Zsolt Darvas, Senior fellow
Vsevolod Chentsov, Head of the Mission and the European Atomic Energy Community, Mission of Ukraine to the European Union
Gert Jan Koopman, Director General, DG NEAR, European Commission
Milena Mihajlovic, Programme Director, European Policy Centre (CEP)
Maria Repko, Deputy Director, Centre for Economic Strategy (CES)

Ukraine’s economic and legislative integration with the EU advanced significantly before Russia's full-scale attack on Ukraine, which provided a good basis for rapidly approving Ukraine’s EU candidate status after the invasion started. What is the state of play with Ukraine’s EU accession bid? How can EU support during the war and in the subsequent reconstruction period incentivise reforms in Ukraine to foster the country’s preparedness for EU accession? Is there a need to reform the EU’s accession process? How to treat Western Balkan countries – which have long been waiting for progress with their accession attempt – and Ukraine equally?

Chair: Nicolas Véron, Senior fellow
John Berrigan, Director-General, European Commission, European Commission, DG FISMA
Andreas Billmeier, Chief European economist, Brevan Howard
Joanna Cound, Head of Global Public Policy Group, BlackRock
Sharon Donnery, Deputy Governor, Central Bank of Ireland

As the EU parliamentary term approaches its end and many legislative files still await completion, the Spanish and Belgian presidencies will face a challenging task of pushing and prioritising. Meanwhile, the US banking turmoil episode last March has been a powerful reminder of the potentially disruptive impact of rising policy rates in a complex financial system. The discussion will consider both ongoing policymaking initiatives and possible scenarios for crisis management and will aim at a holistic assessment of the EU’s achievements on financial services reform since the current term started in 2019.

Chair: Georg Zachmann, Senior fellow
Wanda Buk, Vice-President for Regulatory Affairs, PGE
Veronika Grimm, Member, German Council of Economic Experts
Lorenzo Giussani, Director for Electricity Generation and Trade, a2a
Wojciech Krawczyk
Ditte Juul Jørgensen, Director-General, European Commission, DG ENER

The 2022 European energy crisis did not only expose a lack of investments in domestic energy supply and diversification of energy imports, but also put a spotlight on Europe’s energy-intensive industry. How would the sectors whose international competitiveness strongly depends on access to cheap energy fare with the crisis – and how will this impact the transition away from (imported) fossil fuels? In this context, crucial questions arise: will Europe ever be able todevelop competitive clean energy supplies? Will Europeans have to subsidise energy-intensive industry? Will relocation of certain industries relieve the stress?

Additional speakers to be confirmed.

Chair: Jeromin Zettelmeyer, Director
Robert Holzmann, Governor, Oesterreichische Nationalbank
Lucrezia Reichlin, Non-resident fellow

This panel will explore the policy options and research questions that emerge after the current high inflation has been tamed in Europe and other advanced countries. Do we expect to return to pre-2008 ‘conventional’ monetary policies, or may we have to continue in a world of unconventional monetary policy, with a toolbox consisting of negative policy interest rates, quantitative easing, subsidised borrowing rates and forward guidance? The answer will depend on the prospects for the natural rate of interest. Without a re-rise in the natural rate, we may be confined to resort to UMP in current or renewed forms.

Theme: Macroeconomic policy and governance Global economy and trade Green economy Digital economy, labour markets, skills and health Banking and capital markets
Keyword: eu governance global governance climate change financial literacy future of work digital economy
Series: Annual meetings
Language: English