Publications

Planning for the rising fiscal costs of climate disasters

Low insurance coverage is turning EU governments into disaster insurers of last resort, strengthening the case for prevention and adaptation finance

Heather Grabbe, Ugnė Keliauskaitė, Marie-Sophie Lappe, Irene Monasterolo, Massimo Tavoni and Georg Zachmann

Europe must prepare for a possible oil supply crunch

With falling commercial and emergency oil reserves, Europe’s oil price shock could soon become a volume crisis – a scenario for which it must prepare

Thomas Mramor, Alexander Roth, Simone Tagliapietra and Georg Zachmann

The right balance: how to fix European Union artificial intelligence regulation

EU AI regulation should trade lower ex-ante burden for robust ex-post monitoring, judicial review and liability to curb harms without stifling markets

Mario Mariniello

When oil is scarce and debt is binding: policy sequencing under a severe energy supply shock

With inflation still binding and fiscal space thin, the 2026 Iran shock revives the case for pre-committed, conditional yield anchors with clear exit

Gene Frieda

Between values and interests: drivers of EU aid

EU aid is still more poverty-focused than peers, but external policy drivers are growing and reshaping development cooperation after Global Gateway

Anna Bahí, Roel Dom, Niclas Poitiers and Camille Reverdy

How do trade restrictiveness and trade policy uncertainty affect FDI? An empirical investigation

Rising trade barriers and uncertainty are choking FDI inflows, hitting low and middle-income investors hardest in a fragmented global economy

Hites Ahir, Luca Bettarelli, Davide Furceri, Francesco Frangiamore, Jonathan D. Ostry and Francesco Scianna

Size versus allocation in capital market development: evidence from pension funds and insurance companies

EU capital markets stay small as savings sit in deposits, making insurers and pension funds pivotal if portfolios shift into productive assets

Marie-Sophie Lappe and David Pinkus

Hungary has room to streamline public spending without hurting growth

Cutting some state operating and economic spending to the average of its regional peers could save Hungary more than four percent of GDP

Zsolt Darvas

Defence innovation and procurement reform: an empirical evaluation of the US Defense Innovation Unit

Ethan Kapstein, Javier Ospital and Guntram B. Wolff

How to secure the benefits of an EU-wide incorporation regime

An EU Inc. plan for a common company regime should become more targeted and be underpinned by better system infrastructure

Fiona M. Scott Morton and Reinhilde Veugelers

A plan to revitalise the World Trade Organization

Saving the WTO will require EU-led alliances, better subsidy disciplines and new plurilateral routes, even if some initiatives sit outside the WTO

Ignacio García Bercero

The flaws in the European Union’s proposed Industrial Accelerator Act and how to fix them

IAA provisions should rest on clear sector choices, WTO-safe criteria and FDI screening that welcomes value-adding investment

Ignacio García Bercero, Ben McWilliams and Simone Tagliapietra

A new strategy to contain stablecoin risks in the European Union

EU reluctance on stablecoins may backfire as US-backed dollar tokens spread, pushing demand offshore and importing dollar risks into Europe

Lucrezia Reichlin, Bo Sangers and Jeromin Zettelmeyer

Europe needs a strategy to close the artificial intelligence compute gap

In its bid to compete with the US on AI, Europe could learn from both China and from the classic Airbus industrial policy case

Alicia García-Herrero and Bertin Martens

Ragnar Nurkse and the Making of the Bretton Woods Paradigm

An intellectual biography and analysis of how a little-known Estonian economist developed the authoritative account of the Bretton Woods paradigm

Ivo Maes and Ilaria Pasotti

Challenges to the integration of the Western Balkans into European Union supply chains

Western Balkan EU integration has deepened, yet rising non-tariff barriers and new EU rules keep trade costs high despite zero tariffs

Madalena Barata da Rocha, Niclas Poitiers and Nina Vujanović