Publications

European and Chinese exports kept growing despite the 2025 Trump trade shock

Diversification has kept global trade strong, despite Trump’s tariffs and accelerated US-China decoupling

Zsolt Darvas and Marie-Sophie Lappe

Growth without profits: how will ‘involution’ in China end?

China’s involution drives price wars and misallocation as even laggards slash prices, propping up zombie firms and stoking trade tensions

Alicia García-Herrero and Jianwei Xu

Better regulation in the European Union needs a fresh start

A solid EU better regulation framework is undermined by gaps in coverage and quality, making consistent application and stronger oversight essential

Anne Bucher and Elizabeth Golberg

Europe’s emissions trading system is an ally, not an enemy, of industrial competitiveness

The 2026 review of the EU ETS must be anchored in facts and focus on the potential benefits of the system to EU competitiveness

Thomas Mramor and Simone Tagliapietra

How the global minimum tax amendments could reshape Europe’s tax incentives

This analysis offers estimates for EU countries of the possible impact of the ‘safe harbour’ update to the global minimum tax on corporate profits

Roel Dom

Has the global minimum tax survived Trump?

US objections have not killed off the 15 percent global minimum tax, but they have altered it and given the US a competitive advantage

Pascal Saint-Amans

The Western Balkan energy sector: between Russia, the European Union and the green transition

This paper analyses energy transitions in the Western Balkans, away from dependence on Russia and towards the EU electricity market

Nina Vujanović, Rouven Stubbe and Maria Catarina Louro

How resilient is Russia’s economy after four years of war?

Resilience in Russia’s 2022–25 economy is fading as war spending slows growth, entrenches inflation and amplifies structural fragilities

Marek Dabrowski

EU securitisation needs a more market-based approach

The EU is updating its regulations on securitisation, but it still has a long way to go if it wants to emulate the strengths of the US market

Rebecca Christie

Europe has a solid basis for battery and electric vehicle manufacturing growth

Europe is successfully building up battery and EV manufacturing capacity, though mainly thanks to foreign investment

Marie Jugé, Ugnė Keliauskaitė, Ben McWilliams and Simone Tagliapietra

The European Union should embrace decentralised finance and make it safe

A hybrid system with a digital euro and regulated private money would safeguard the EU from dollar-denominated stablecoin dominance

Lucrezia Reichlin

EU data processing consent reform must account for market incentives

Proposed streamlining of EU rules on consent for processing of personal data should account for how digital-market incentives shape implementation

Paul Richter and Tillman Schenk

The European Union and the war in Ukraine: more money, but not more Europe

This Working Paper analyses the drivers of rearmament and especially military aid to Ukraine

Jacob Funk Kirkegaard

Regime 0: Europe-wide incorporation for startups to kickstart innovative growth

An optional EU regime is proposed to lower barriers for high-growth startups via swift incorporation, simple governance and cross-border access

Fiona M. Scott Morton and Reinhilde Veugelers

The European Union needs more than the digital omnibus to make digital services competitive

European Commission plans to streamline digital rules introduce new inconsistences and fall far short of transformative reform

Bertin Martens

Rules, discretion and market stabilisation in the euro area

Zsolt Darvas and Francesco Papadia