Publications

External Publication

Promoting product longevity

How can the EU product safety and compliance framework help promote product durability and tackle planned obsolescence, foster the production of more sustainable products, and achieve more transparent supply chains for consumers? Product longevity can play a useful role in achieving the Paris Agreement goals – material efficiency is an important contributor to energy efficiency and is also important in its own right. The product safety and compliance instruments available at European level can contribute to these efforts, if wisely applied.

By: J. Scott Marcus Topic: Energy & Climate, European Macroeconomics & Governance, European Parliament Date: April 9, 2020

Working Paper

Forecasting exchange rates of major currencies with long maturity forward rates

This paper presents unprecedented exchange rate forecasting results based upon a new model which approximates the gap between the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate and the actual exchange rate with the long-maturity forward exchange rate.

By: Zsolt Darvas and Zoltán Schepp Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: April 2, 2020

External Publication

Facing the lower bound: what will the ECB do in the next recession?

In responding to the global financial crisis, the ECB has pushed its monetary policy into unchartered territories . Today, it appears increasingly constrained by persistently low interest rates. This paper seeks to understand this challenge and assess whether its toolkit would allow the ECB to weather a European recession.

By: Aliénor Cameron, Grégory Claeys and Maria Demertzis Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: March 27, 2020

External Publication

How has the macroeconomic imbalances procedure worked in practice to improve the resilience of the euro area?

This paper shows how the Macroeconomic Imbalances Procedure (MIP) could be streamlined and its underlying conceptual framework clarified. Implementation of the country-specific recommendations is low; their internal consistency is sometimes missing; despite past reforms, the MIP remains largely a countryby-country approach running the risk of aggravating the deflationary bias in the euro area. We recommend to streamline the scoreboard around a few meaningful indicators, involve national macro-prudential and productivity councils, better connect the various recommendations, simplify the language and further involve the Commission into national policy discussions. This document was prepared for the Economic Governance Support Unit at the request of the ECON Committee.

By: Agnès Bénassy-Quéré and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: March 24, 2020

External Publication

Analysis of developments in EU capital flows in the global context

This report presents an overview of the recent trends of capital flows, focused especially on the past year. It provides a detailed analysis at the global level and at the European Union level.

By: Grégory Claeys, Maria Demertzis, Marta Domínguez-Jiménez, Konstantinos Efstathiou and Tanja Linta Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: March 16, 2020

External Publication

The effect of digitalization in the energy consumption of passenger transport: An analysis of future scenarios for Europe

The paper evaluates the effects on energy consumption of digitalization in transport. Digitalization needs a tailored policy support to avoid higher energy consumption.

By: Simone Tagliapietra and Michel Noussan Topic: Energy & Climate Date: March 16, 2020

Policy Contribution

An effective economic response to the Coronavirus in Europe

'Whatever it takes' needs to be the motto to preserve lives and reduce the impact on the economy of the epidemic.

By: Maria Demertzis, André Sapir, Simone Tagliapietra and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance, Testimonies Date: March 12, 2020

Policy Contribution

A European carbon border tax: much pain, little gain

The European Commission should not make the implementation of a carbon border adjustment mechanism into a must-have element of its climate policy. There is little in the way of strong empirical evidence that would justify a carbon-adjustment measure. Moreover, significant logistical, legal and political challenges will arise during the design. The EU should instead focus upon the implementation of measures to trigger the development of a competitive low-carbon industry in Europe.

By: Ben McWilliams and Georg Zachmann Topic: Energy & Climate, European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: March 5, 2020

Policy Contribution

How good is the European Commission’s Just Transition Fund proposal?

On 14 January 2020, the European Commission published its proposal for a Just Transition Mechanism, intended to provide support to territories facing serious socioeconomic challenges related to the transition towards climate neutrality. This brief provides an overview and a critical assessment of the first pillar of this Mechanism, the Just Transition Fund (JTF).

By: Aliénor Cameron, Grégory Claeys, Catarina Midões and Simone Tagliapietra Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance, European Parliament, Finance & Financial Regulation Date: February 26, 2020

Policy Contribution

FDI another day: Russian reliance on European investment

Most foreign direct investment into Russia originates in the European Union: European investors own between 55 percent and 75 percent of Russian FDI stock. This points to a Russian dependence on European investment, making the EU paramount for Russian medium-term growth. Even if we consider ‘phantom’ FDI that transits through Europe, the EU remains the primary investor in Russia. Most phantom FDI into Russia is believed to originate from Russia itself and thus is by construction not foreign.

By: Marta Domínguez-Jiménez and Niclas Poitiers Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: February 17, 2020

Policy Contribution

From climate change to cyber attacks: Incipient financial-stability risks for the euro area

The European Central Bank’s November 2019 Financial Stability Review highlighted the risks to growth in an environment of global uncertainty. On the whole, the ECB report is comprehensive and covers the main risks to euro-area financial stability, we highlight issues that deserve more attention.

By: Zsolt Darvas, Marta Domínguez-Jiménez and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance, European Parliament, Finance & Financial Regulation, Testimonies Date: February 6, 2020

Working Paper

Resisting deglobalisation: the case of Europe

Global trade and finance data indicates that the pre-2008 pace of economic globalisation has stalled or even reversed. The European Union has defied this trend, with trade flows and financial claims continuing to grow after the recovery from the 2008 global economic and financial crisis. Immigration, including intra-EU mobility, has also continued to increase.

By: Zsolt Darvas Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: February 4, 2020

Filter choices:

Promoting product longevity

Forecasting exchange rates of major currencies with long maturity forward rates

Facing the lower bound: what will the ECB do in the next recession?

How has the macroeconomic imbalances procedure worked in practice to improve the resilience of the euro area?

Analysis of developments in EU capital flows in the global context

The effect of digitalization in the energy consumption of passenger transport: An analysis of future scenarios for Europe

An effective economic response to the Coronavirus in Europe

A European carbon border tax: much pain, little gain

How good is the European Commission’s Just Transition Fund proposal?

FDI another day: Russian reliance on European investment

From climate change to cyber attacks: Incipient financial-stability risks for the euro area

Resisting deglobalisation: the case of Europe