Working paper

What drives national implementation of EU policy recommendations?

The authors use a newly-compiled dataset to investigate whether and why European Union countries implement the economic policy recommendations they re

Publishing date: 25 April 2019
Authors: Guntram B. Wolff Konstantinos Efstathiou

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We use a newly-compiled dataset to investigate whether and why European Union countries implement the economic policy recommendations they receive from the EU. We find that implementation rates are modest and have worsened at a time when the economic environment has improved and market pressure on sovereigns has subsided. Implementation has deteriorated in particular among countries designated as having ‘excessive’ macroeconomic imbalances. We then empirically test three factors that could influence implementation rates: (i) the macroeconomic environment; (ii) pressure from financial markets; and (iii) the strength of EU-level macroeconomic surveillance.

The econometric estimates indicate that larger fiscal and current account deficits and a higher probability of sovereign default increase the likelihood of implementation. However, stronger surveillance under the Macroeconomic Imbalances Procedure (MIP) does not seem to drive implementation rates. The quality of governance, the fragmentation of government coalitions and fewer recommendations received are connected to increased implementation, whereas for countries under the MIP, implementation slowed during election years. Finally, recommendations on financial services have a much greater chance of being implemented, whereas those on broadening the tax base, the long-term sustainability of public finance and pension systems, and competition in services are much less likely to be implemented. Overall, economic fundamentals and political economy factors provide only a small part of the answer to the question of why countries reform: ultimately, reform decisions are down to factors outside of the models.

About the authors

Guntram B. Wolff

Guntram Wolff was the Director of Bruegel. Over his career, he has contributed to research on European political economy and governance, fiscal, monetary and financial policy, climate change and geoeconomics. Under his leadership, Bruegel has been regularly ranked among the top global think tanks and has grown in influence and impact with a team of now almost 40 recognized scholars and around 65 total staff. Bruegel is also recognized for its outstanding transparency.

A recognized thought leader and academic, he regularly testifies at the European Finance Ministers' ECOFIN meeting, the European Parliament, the German Parliament (Bundestag) and the French Parliament (Assemblée Nationale). From 2012-16, he was a member of the French prime minister's Conseil d'Analyse Economique. In 2018, then IMF managing director Christine Lagarde appointed him to the external advisory group on surveillance to review the Fund’s priorities. In 2021, he was appointed to the G20 high level independent panel on pandemic prevention, preparedness and response. He is also a professor (part-time) at the Solvay Brussels School of Université Libre de Bruxelles, where he teaches economics of European integration.

He joined Bruegel from the European Commission, where he worked on the macroeconomics of the euro area and the reform of euro area governance. Prior to joining the Commission, he was coordinating the research team on fiscal policy at Deutsche Bundesbank. He also worked as an external adviser to the International Monetary Fund.

He holds a PhD in economics from the University of Bonn and studied in Bonn, Toulouse, Pittsburgh and Passau. He taught economics at the University of Pittsburgh and at Université libre de Bruxelles. He has published numerous papers in leading academic journals. His columns and policy work are published and cited in leading international media and policy outlets. Guntram is fluent in German, English, French and has good notions of Bulgarian and Spanish.
Konstantinos Efstathiou

Konstantinos, a Greek citizen, works in Bruegel as an Affiliate Fellow in the Macroeconomics and Governance area. Before joining Bruegel, Konstantinos was at the European Commission, as a Blue Book Trainee in the Cabinet of President Juncker. He also interned at the Central Bank of Luxembourg (BCL) as a research assistant, involved in projects related to the Wage Dynamics Network (WDN) research group.

He holds a Master in International Economics and International Relations from the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), where he specialized in Quantitative Methods and European Studies.

Konstantinos’ research interests include macroeconomics, European economic governance and international economics.

Konstantinos is a native speaker of Greek, speaks fluent English and has good knowledge of French.

Declaration of interests 2017

Declaration of interests 2018