Security

Could a Hormuz toll solve the oil crisis and who pays?

With a return to the pre-Iran conflict energy status quo unlikely, a Hormuz toll may be the next best option – but Gulf states would pay the most

Guntram B. Wolff

How Europe should respond to the Iran gas shock – and how it shouldn’t

The European Union should act now to head off growing impacts from the Iran conflict on gas prices and availability

Ugnė Keliauskaitė, Ben McWilliams, Thomas Mramor, Alexander Roth, Simone Tagliapietra and Georg Zachmann

The costs and failures of air defence in the Iran conflict and what they mean for Europe

Shoring up Europe’s defensive capabilities needs to focus on cheap interceptors and offensive capability to target military industries

Alexandr Burilkov and Guntram B. Wolff

Europe’s dependence on US foreign military sales: evidence for policy makers from a new database

Juan Mejino-López and Guntram B. Wolff

What the war in Iran means for China

China is relatively inured to the Iran conflict, but less external demand could hit its exports and its international partnerships may be undermined

Alicia García-Herrero

Europe should build on France’s nuclear deterrent extension offer

Though not a proper European deterrent, a nuclear strategy partnership between France and other countries marks a new phase as the US wavers

Francesco Nicoli and Lucio Pench

US Foreign Military Sales

This dataset offers detailed information on FMS notifications of transfers of military equipment from the US to foreign governments.

Juan Mejino-López, Javier Ospital and Guntram B. Wolff

Reforming European defence procurement to boost military innovation and startups

European defence procurement practices must evolve to embrace innovative startups and small firms, in order to meet modern battlefield needs

Ethan Kapstein, Javier Ospital and Guntram B. Wolff

How will the Iran conflict hit European energy markets?

Policymakers should plan for a potentially prolonged standoff in the Middle East, while doubling down – not backtracking – on the energy transition

Simone Tagliapietra

Iran is a huge headache for China, but bodes ill for Taiwan

Alicia García-Herrero

Europe and the Iran war

What does the conflict mean for inflation, oil prices, the economy and Ukraine? 

Rebecca Christie, Elina Ribakova, Simone Tagliapietra and Guntram B. Wolff

International support to Ukraine is insufficient and declining

After four years of war, the Western aid strategy to Ukraine must be rethought

Marek Dabrowski

Why does European rearmament need European competition?

Guntram B. Wolff