Geopolitics

Competing for inputs: how the European Union can improve critical raw materials supply security

EU critical raw materials projects fall short of self-sufficiency targets, making trade deals and targeted investment central to supply security

Madalena Barata da Rocha and Camille Reverdy

How much has the Russian budget gained from Iran-war related higher oil prices?

Russia has gained some fiscal headroom from higher oil prices, though not enough to fully offset budgetary difficulties from the Ukraine war

Marek Dabrowski

Europe’s rearmament problem is demand, not ‘help to buy’

A proposed bank to finance defence spending does not seem designed to fix more fundamental fragmentation problems, and may even reinforce them

Gene Frieda

EU candidate countries acquis alignment dataset (2020-2025)

EU candidate preparedness is quantified from annual Commission reports, creating comparable scores across eight countries, policy areas and years

Marek Dabrowski and Maria Catarina Louro

Progress made by EU candidate countries on accession-related reforms

EU accession progress broadly tracks reform, but Montenegro’s advance and North Macedonia’s stalled talks show politics still matters

Marek Dabrowski and Maria Catarina Louro

Who Is the Swing Vote?

Rebecca Christie

Less focus on poverty reduction? An evaluation of the EU 2028-2034 development aid plan

European Union development aid is emphasising poverty reduction less and directing attention to other geopolitical priorities

Costanza Greppi Maturana and Niclas Poitiers

Europe's China shock 2.0

A record surplus, a fractured response and the limits of Brussels' ambitions

Alicia García-Herrero, Philippe Le Corre and Yuyun Zhan

Stack battles: the US-China artificial-intelligence rivalry is moving beyond chips alone

China is challenging US leadership in both AI hardware and software, with Europe unlikely to catch up

Alicia García-Herrero and Bertin Martens

Europe and its allies must plan to offset the AI dependency risk

A sudden suspension of Anthropic’s most powerful models for non-Americans previews a world in which access to AI can be abruptly cut

Alicia García-Herrero and Soumitra Dutta

The energy shock for which there is no playbook

The US-Iran conflict may be ending but coping with its inflation and fiscal consequences will be challenging for months ahead

Gene Frieda

2026 European energy crisis fiscal response tracker

This dataset provides an overview of the fiscal measures implemented by European governments to mitigate the 2026 energy shock in Europe

Ben McWilliams, Thomas Mramor, Alexander Roth and Simone Tagliapietra

Europe must prepare for a possible oil supply crunch

With falling commercial and emergency oil reserves, Europe’s oil price shock could soon become a volume crisis – a scenario for which it must prepare

Thomas Mramor, Alexander Roth, Simone Tagliapietra and Georg Zachmann