Alicia García-Herrero
Alicia García Herrero is a Senior Fellow at European think-tank BRUEGEL. She is also the Chief Economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis, and a non-resident Senior Follow at the East Asian Institute (EAI) of the National University Singapore (NUS). Alicia is also Adjunct Professor at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. Finally, she is a Member of the Council of Advisors on Economic Affairs to the Spanish Government and an advisor to the Hong Kong Monetary Authority’s research arm (HKIMR) among other advisory and academic positions.
In previous years, Alicia held the following positions: Chief Economist for Emerging Markets at Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA), Member of the Asian Research Program at the Bank of International Settlements (BIS), Head of the International Economy Division of the Bank of Spain, Member of the Counsel to the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, Head of Emerging Economies at the Research Department at Banco Santander, and Economist at the International Monetary Fund. Alicia has maintained a part-time academic life throughout her career as Visiting Professor at John Hopkins University (SAIS program), at the China Europe International Business School (CEIBS) in Shanghai, Carlos III University in Madrid among others.
Alicia holds a PhD in Economics from George Washington University and has published extensively in refereed journals and books (her publications can be found in ResearchGate, Google Scholar, SSRN or REPEC).
Alicia is also very active in international media (Bloomberg and CNBC among others) as well as social media (Twitter and LinkedIn). Alicia was included in the TOP Voices in Economy and Finance by LinkedIn in 2017 and #6 Top Social Media leader by Refinitiv in 2020.
Disclaimer of external interests
Featured work
To what extent can innovation and global economic dominance mitigate China’s structural slowdown?
Event in the frame of the project China Horizons - Dealing with a resurgent China (DWARC)*.
China’s weak recovery is turning off foreign investors
Quick rebound expected after the relaxation of zero-Covid policies has not materialised.
China’s growing power in Latin America
China and the US might not be decoupling but their technologies are bifurcating
Once the process of building alliances starts, it is hard to stop.
China’s overseas lending needs a full-fledged debt restructuring
China’s structural deceleration: population aging versus innovation
Closed-door event discussed the importance of rapid aging for the future of the Chinese economy and dwelling on China’s major innovation trends
What really influences United Nations voting on Ukraine?
Speculation has been triggered about new alliances emerging in the Global South, inspired by China and India's voting behaviour.
EU-China relations have been – and will remain – a rollercoaster
Global trends in countries‘ perceptions of the Belt and Road Initiative
In this paper, we have analysed the sentiment towards the Belt and Road Initiative in the world using a large open-access dataset, namely GDELT.
Brazil is not a real middle power if it just takes China's side
Lula cannot show strategic autonomy by parroting Xi Jinping
China's good relations with Africa rely more on narratives than economic impact
Will Lula find his El Dorado in China?
The Brazilian president is seeking Beijing’s support for his quest for middle power prowess
China’s 2023 work report and what it means: an AI post-mortem
China is taking a more nuanced approach to the overarching goal of GDP growth.
No gains for Europe from latest pilgrimage to Beijing
Emmanuel Macron and Ursula von der Leyen are petitioning Xi Jinping on Ukraine and other pressing issues
The Belt and Road Initiative transformation makes it a more – not less- useful tool for China
A European Think Tank’s Experience with the Global Pandemic: The Case of Bruegel
This chapter reviews Bruegel's experience and role in policy formation during the Covid-19 pandemic.
China’s new regulator hints at a major clean-up of the world’s largest financial sector
Among several institutional changes, the most significant might be the creation of a new nationwide regulator to oversee China’s financial industry.
Li Keqiang’s farewell points to employment as China’s major problem
China's modest 2023 growth target provides more evidence of a focus on sustainable growth and jobs.
The transformation of China’s Belt and Road Initiative: What is in it for Europe?
Closed-door event discussing China's BRI project.
How well does China’s reopening bode for the economy? A political economy story
The boom, bust and future of China's real estate sector
Don’t expect Asia to save the global economy in 2023
Southeast Asian economies, as well as India, are expected to decelerate, which will blur the positive impact of China’s reopening.
China-India relations and their impact on Europe
The COVID–19 pandemic and China’s economic slowdown
Any convergence with the U.S. economy will not continue for long.
China protests add to uncertainty for investors
Demonstrations show how the country is struggling to deal with Covid and an easing of lockdowns.
Xi Jinping’s new smiles got China off the hook at climate talks
Beijing's bandwidth to deliver is shrinking as its economic performance wanes.
Promotion of high capacity broadband to rebuild and recover from the pandemic
High-capacity broadband infrastructure will be a key enabler of a forward-looking recovery after COVID-19.
Lessons for Europe from China’s quest for semiconductor self-reliance
This paper explores China's quest to become a domestic-demand-driven economy, and the lessons that can be learnt from its quest for self reliance.
Biden, Xi focus on Taiwan and forget about Ukraine
The meet did not seem to offer solutions to the two most pressing problems for the international order.
The geopolitics of semiconductors and what Europe can expect
At Party Congress, Xi doubles down on China’s direction
The two key objectives are targeted self-reliance and national security
Europe’s promised semiconductor subsidies need to be better targeted
The proposed European Chips Act over-emphasises semiconductor production subsidies, focusing too little on increasing value-added in research.
China’s real estate sector goes south
The demise of China’s real estate sector, pushed by developer defaults and mortgage boycotts, is a major risk for the Chinese economy.
China's role in the global financial architecture
What risks does China's rise pose to the security of the international financial architecture?
China and the West: growing apart as geopolitical tensions grow
The model of increasing economic interdependence between the West and the emerging world was built on assumptions that no longer hold.
China can learn from the bursting of Japan's real estate bubble
Beijing cannot count on economic growth or fiscal space to tide through crisis
Shinzo Abe’s economic legacy: a glass half full
Abenomics has fallen short in many ways, but Japan has still largely coped with an aging society while maintaining a high level of income equality.
China’s Economy Needs More Stimulus. Beijing’s Room for Maneuver Is Limited.
Bruegel Annual Meetings, 6-7 September 2022
The Annual Meetings are Bruegel's flagship event which gathers high-level speakers to discuss the economic topics that affect Europe and the world.
Ukraine and Taiwan on the Biden-Xi chessboard
Overall, Biden and Xi seem to be converging on their strategies for global dominance
China’s non-market practices, impact on the world, and what to do about it?
Testimony before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission.
A new kind of Belt and Road Initiative after the pandemic
The Belt and Road Initiative is turning from infrastructure financing into an instrument for Chinese soft and hard power.
BRI 2.0: How has the pandemic influenced China’s landmark Belt and Road Initiative?
China's BRI is undergoing a transformation after two years of pandemic. How is it changing and what are the consequences for Europe.
Xi, Biden switching strategies for dominance
The US now sees Asia more through an economic lens, while China shifts toward a security focus
Is China’s private sector advancing or retreating?
A look into the Chinese private sector.
China’s Covid policy to be year’s largest economic shock
Beijing’s ‘dynamic zero-Covid’ policy could devastate the domestic economy, but the effects will also be felt globally.
Early Warning Brief: China’s contorted response to Russia sanctions
The spectre of a democratic Russia aligned with the West is probably a more serious concern for Beijing than what it risks losing by supporting Russia
Rallying Chinese markets will not be a quick fix for Beijing
Top official makes rare intervention to reassure investors but progress to resolve problems will be difficult.
China can see the limits of bailing out Russia's economy
Beijing will support Moscow as long as it does not fall foul of Western sanctions.
China offers Russia respite but not a solution
Beijing could provide greater assistance to its partner while benefiting from greater energy and military security, but this option is not without ris
Can China bail out Putin?
Even with help from China, Russia will be unable to mitigate the immediate impact of Western sanctions.
War in Ukraine: Russia-China relations
A special episode of the Sound of Economics Live on China-Russia relations in the context of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
China’s economic support for Russia is not a panacea
The EU is still Russia’s largest trading partner, actually several times bigger than China.
Global chip shortage may soon turn into an oversupply crisis
Only companies investing in advanced semiconductors will see their margins increase.
Will this be the century of youthful Asia?
Youthful Asia offers immense opportunities for investors, but this potential can only be realised if their infrastructure and energy needs are fulfill
East-west divergence in central bank action will not last much longer
Fed shift towards raising rates will make it hard for China and Japan not to tighten monetary policy.
How China’s investment in Middle East is evolving
The share of the Middle East in China’s total overseas investment has declined for several reasons.
In the electric vehicle race, China coming first
China is not only a producer and consumer of EVs, but also of the battery components on which they depend.
Global Gateway vs. Belt and Road Initiative
How does the EU's Global Gateway plan compare to China's Belt and Road initiative?
2022 to see monetary decoupling between West and East
It does not look like the new year is going to be calmer than 2021.
China’s medium term outlook: Will innovation save China from becoming old before it becomes rich?
What can China do to stop the deceleration of its economy. Is innovation the solution?
Chinese economic statecraft: what to expect in the next five years?
Chapter from 'Storms Ahead: the Future Geoeconomic world order' on the expectations from the next five years of Chinese economic policy, published on
Advancing global value and supply chains to mitigate the challenges arising from the pandemic
Session at the 1st ASIA-EUROPE ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS FORUM: Transitioning to a New Normal: Leveraging Global Value Chains, Multilateralism and the 4IR
How can we create more sustainable value chains?
There is an urgent need for GVCs to become more resilient and inclusive, and meet the net-zero challenge.
Microchips and Europe's strategic autonomy
Per microchips ad strategic autonomy.
Weak G20 climate pledge doesn’t bode well for COP26
Climate strategists may see a need to shift to a more assertive approach.
COP26: why carbon pricing is crucial to China’s climate change pledges
China’s emissions trading scheme is a welcome but to reach its full potential, it needs to cover more of China’s emissions, go beyond the electricity
Xi’s pledge on financing coal plants overseas misses point
China’s domestic installation of coal-fired power plants continues at great pace.
A world recovery fund to overcome developing countries’ post-covid debt woes?
Proposal to set up a World Recovery Fund (WRF), aimed at addressing some of the key problems with the design of the DSSI and more generally the existi
Will China use climate change as a bargaining chip?
Beijing shows signs of changing tactics ahead of the COP26 conference.
What Evergrande signals about China's economic future
Under Xi Jinping's new economic agenda 'common prosperity', China is cracking down on indebted real estate developers like Evergrande.
The Sound of Economics Live: Unboxing the State of the Union 2021
In this episode, we look at the State of the Union address delivered by Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission.
EU-India trade relations: assessment and perspectives
In-depth analysis prepared for the European Parliament's Committee on International Trade (INTA).
What is behind China's Dual Circulation Strategy?
China's dual circulation strategy should not be dismissed as a buzzword: its implementation will entail major consequences.
The role of the EU's trade strategy for an inclusive and sustainable recovery
Bruegel Annual Meetings, Day 3 - We are delighted to welcome Valdis Dombrovskis, Executive Vice President of the European Commission for An Economy th
Bruegel Annual Meetings, 1-3 September 2021
The 2021 Annual Meetings gathered high-level speakers and participants to discuss how to recover from the crises brought on by the Covid pandemic
Hydrogen development strategies: a global perspective
Despite different strategies, the European Union, the United Kingdom, the United States, China and Japan all expect hydrogen to play a significant rol
Why China should fear the EU's carbon border tax
Expect Beijing to soon start lobbying against the proposal.
Could the RMB dislodge the dollar as a reserve currency?
The dollar remains the world’s largest reserve currency, but it is facing both domestic and external risks.
For the climate, Asia-Pacific must phase out fossil-fuel subsidies
An exit from coal in the Asia-Pacific region is a global decarbonisation priority.
The UK’s security and trade relationship with China
Testimony before the International Relations and Defence Committee at the House of Lords, British Parliament on the UK’s security and trade relationsh
Global value chain reshuffling: From tight coupling to loose coupling?
As the focus shifts from efficiency to resilience in global supply chains, what does this mean for China?
Europe's crusade to fend off Chinese interference falls short
It is in everybody's interest for China to level the playing field among state-owned, private, and foreign companies so that no new distortionary meas
China’s M&A activity rebounds with a clear focus on Europe
Despite the pandemic, China’s interest in overseas M&A started to rebound in late 2020, with European industrial companies still of particular interes
China has a grand carbon neutrality target but where is the plan?
China’s new long-term targets, to reach peak emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, are yet to be matched with a consistent shor
The EU-China investment deal may be anachronic in a bifurcating world
Ultimately, only time will tell if this landmark trade agreement will be productive and counter the potential bifurcation of international value chain
Anchoring expectations as Two Sessions’ main objective
Interestingly, the growth target for 2021 is pretty humble: over 6 percent for 2021, while most forecasts hover between 7 and 10 percent.
How is the G20 tackling debt problems of the poorest countries?
The G20 Debt Service Suspension Initiative, although a partial success, has been dogged by competing interests and lack of coordination. A further pus
China’s state-owned enterprises and competitive neutrality
The concept of competitive neutrality can be used to assess how far a market is from being a competitive environment.
Asset bubbles won’t help our post-pandemic recovery
An unintended consequence of the virus has been ‘one of the wildest bull markets in recent economic history’ but a worsening of income distribution wi
Europe's disappointing investment deal with China
Why rush a deal that is so inherently complex?
Deglobalisation in the context of United States-China decoupling
After decades of increasing globalisation, there now seems to be a slowing, or even a turn to deglobalisation, meaning decelerating trade and investme
When and how should the European Union conclude an investment agreement with China?
A look into the potential Comprehensive Agreement on Investment between China and the European Union.
Europe and India: Comparing Approaches to Global Economic Challenges
Stakeholders from government, private sector, media and academia/institutions come together to review India-EU relations.
A silver lining for ageing Asia
An ageing population is generally bad news for growth prospects, but Japan and Taiwan offer important lessons.
Europe is losing competitiveness in global value chains while China surges
The European Union owes much of its economic weight to its regional value chain and integration into the global value chain. But the EU’s global value
How to keep a competitive environment while engaging with non market economies?
How can we ensure fair competition between European firms and Chinese state-backed players?
China-EU economic relations in the era of US-China economic competition
Testimony before the European Parliament on the subject of China-EU economic relations.
RCEP might not stop reshuffling of Asian value chains
China is no doubt bound to benefit, but other members of the regional trade pact may benefit even more
Hong Kong’s Intermediary Role on Funding the BRI: How does it fare against Singapore?
A look into the intermediary role of Hong Kong in financing cross-border Belt and Road Initiative projects and compare it with Singapore, a similar of