Alicia García-Herrero
Alicia García Herrero is a Senior Fellow at European think-tank BRUEGEL. She is also the Chief Economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis, and a non-resident Senior Follow at the East Asian Institute (EAI) of the National University Singapore (NUS). Alicia is also Adjunct Professor at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. Finally, she is a Member of the Council of Advisors on Economic Affairs to the Spanish Government and an advisor to the Hong Kong Monetary Authority’s research arm (HKIMR) among other advisory and academic positions.
In previous years, Alicia held the following positions: Chief Economist for Emerging Markets at Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA), Member of the Asian Research Program at the Bank of International Settlements (BIS), Head of the International Economy Division of the Bank of Spain, Member of the Counsel to the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, Head of Emerging Economies at the Research Department at Banco Santander, and Economist at the International Monetary Fund. Alicia has maintained a part-time academic life throughout her career as Visiting Professor at John Hopkins University (SAIS program), at the China Europe International Business School (CEIBS) in Shanghai, Carlos III University in Madrid among others.
Alicia holds a PhD in Economics from George Washington University and has published extensively in refereed journals and books (her publications can be found in ResearchGate, Google Scholar, SSRN or REPEC).
Alicia is also very active in international media (Bloomberg and CNBC among others) as well as social media (Twitter and LinkedIn). Alicia was included in the TOP Voices in Economy and Finance by LinkedIn in 2017 and #6 Top Social Media leader by Refinitiv in 2020.
Disclaimer of external interests
Featured work
Xi Jinping’s new smiles got China off the hook at climate talks
Beijing's bandwidth to deliver is shrinking as its economic performance wanes.
Promotion of high capacity broadband to rebuild and recover from the pandemic
High-capacity broadband infrastructure will be a key enabler of a forward-looking recovery after COVID-19.
Lessons for Europe from China’s quest for semiconductor self-reliance
This paper explores China's quest to become a domestic-demand-driven economy, and the lessons that can be learnt from its quest for self reliance.
Biden, Xi focus on Taiwan and forget about Ukraine
The meet did not seem to offer solutions to the two most pressing problems for the international order.
At Party Congress, Xi doubles down on China’s direction
The two key objectives are targeted self-reliance and national security
Europe’s promised semiconductor subsidies need to be better targeted
The proposed European Chips Act over-emphasises semiconductor production subsidies, focusing too little on increasing value-added in research.
China’s real estate sector goes south
The demise of China’s real estate sector, pushed by developer defaults and mortgage boycotts, is a major risk for the Chinese economy.
China and the West: growing apart as geopolitical tensions grow
The model of increasing economic interdependence between the West and the emerging world was built on assumptions that no longer hold.
China can learn from the bursting of Japan's real estate bubble
Beijing cannot count on economic growth or fiscal space to tide through crisis
Shinzo Abe’s economic legacy: a glass half full
Abenomics has fallen short in many ways, but Japan has still largely coped with an aging society while maintaining a high level of income equality.
China’s Economy Needs More Stimulus. Beijing’s Room for Maneuver Is Limited.
Ukraine and Taiwan on the Biden-Xi chessboard
Overall, Biden and Xi seem to be converging on their strategies for global dominance
China’s non-market practices, impact on the world, and what to do about it?
Testimony before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission.
A new kind of Belt and Road Initiative after the pandemic
The Belt and Road Initiative is turning from infrastructure financing into an instrument for Chinese soft and hard power.
China’s Covid policy to be year’s largest economic shock
Beijing’s ‘dynamic zero-Covid’ policy could devastate the domestic economy, but the effects will also be felt globally.
Early Warning Brief: China’s contorted response to Russia sanctions
The spectre of a democratic Russia aligned with the West is probably a more serious concern for Beijing than what it risks losing by supporting Russia
Rallying Chinese markets will not be a quick fix for Beijing
Top official makes rare intervention to reassure investors but progress to resolve problems will be difficult.
China can see the limits of bailing out Russia's economy
Beijing will support Moscow as long as it does not fall foul of Western sanctions.
China offers Russia respite but not a solution
Beijing could provide greater assistance to its partner while benefiting from greater energy and military security, but this option is not without ris
Can China bail out Putin?
Even with help from China, Russia will be unable to mitigate the immediate impact of Western sanctions.
China’s economic support for Russia is not a panacea
The EU is still Russia’s largest trading partner, actually several times bigger than China.
Global chip shortage may soon turn into an oversupply crisis
Only companies investing in advanced semiconductors will see their margins increase.
Will this be the century of youthful Asia?
Youthful Asia offers immense opportunities for investors, but this potential can only be realised if their infrastructure and energy needs are fulfill
East-west divergence in central bank action will not last much longer
Fed shift towards raising rates will make it hard for China and Japan not to tighten monetary policy.
How China’s investment in Middle East is evolving
The share of the Middle East in China’s total overseas investment has declined for several reasons.
In the electric vehicle race, China coming first
China is not only a producer and consumer of EVs, but also of the battery components on which they depend.
2022 to see monetary decoupling between West and East
It does not look like the new year is going to be calmer than 2021.
Chinese economic statecraft: what to expect in the next five years?
Chapter from 'Storms Ahead: the Future Geoeconomic world order' on the expectations from the next five years of Chinese economic policy, published on
Weak G20 climate pledge doesn’t bode well for COP26
Climate strategists may see a need to shift to a more assertive approach.
COP26: why carbon pricing is crucial to China’s climate change pledges
China’s emissions trading scheme is a welcome but to reach its full potential, it needs to cover more of China’s emissions, go beyond the electricity
Xi’s pledge on financing coal plants overseas misses point
China’s domestic installation of coal-fired power plants continues at great pace.
A world recovery fund to overcome developing countries’ post-covid debt woes?
Proposal to set up a World Recovery Fund (WRF), aimed at addressing some of the key problems with the design of the DSSI and more generally the existi
Will China use climate change as a bargaining chip?
Beijing shows signs of changing tactics ahead of the COP26 conference.
What Evergrande signals about China's economic future
Under Xi Jinping's new economic agenda 'common prosperity', China is cracking down on indebted real estate developers like Evergrande.
EU-India trade relations: assessment and perspectives
In-depth analysis prepared for the European Parliament's Committee on International Trade (INTA).
What is behind China's Dual Circulation Strategy?
China's dual circulation strategy should not be dismissed as a buzzword: its implementation will entail major consequences.
Hydrogen development strategies: a global perspective
Despite different strategies, the European Union, the United Kingdom, the United States, China and Japan all expect hydrogen to play a significant rol
Why China should fear the EU's carbon border tax
Expect Beijing to soon start lobbying against the proposal.
Could the RMB dislodge the dollar as a reserve currency?
The dollar remains the world’s largest reserve currency, but it is facing both domestic and external risks.
For the climate, Asia-Pacific must phase out fossil-fuel subsidies
An exit from coal in the Asia-Pacific region is a global decarbonisation priority.
The UK’s security and trade relationship with China
Testimony before the International Relations and Defence Committee at the House of Lords, British Parliament on the UK’s security and trade relationsh
Europe's crusade to fend off Chinese interference falls short
It is in everybody's interest for China to level the playing field among state-owned, private, and foreign companies so that no new distortionary meas
China’s M&A activity rebounds with a clear focus on Europe
Despite the pandemic, China’s interest in overseas M&A started to rebound in late 2020, with European industrial companies still of particular interes
China has a grand carbon neutrality target but where is the plan?
China’s new long-term targets, to reach peak emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, are yet to be matched with a consistent shor
The EU-China investment deal may be anachronic in a bifurcating world
Ultimately, only time will tell if this landmark trade agreement will be productive and counter the potential bifurcation of international value chain
Anchoring expectations as Two Sessions’ main objective
Interestingly, the growth target for 2021 is pretty humble: over 6 percent for 2021, while most forecasts hover between 7 and 10 percent.
How is the G20 tackling debt problems of the poorest countries?
The G20 Debt Service Suspension Initiative, although a partial success, has been dogged by competing interests and lack of coordination. A further pus
China’s state-owned enterprises and competitive neutrality
The concept of competitive neutrality can be used to assess how far a market is from being a competitive environment. In China, competitive neutrality
Asset bubbles won’t help our post-pandemic recovery
An unintended consequence of the virus has been ‘one of the wildest bull markets in recent economic history’ but a worsening of income distribution wi
Europe's disappointing investment deal with China
Why rush a deal that is so inherently complex?
Deglobalisation in the context of United States-China decoupling
After decades of increasing globalisation, there now seems to be a slowing, or even a turn to deglobalisation, meaning decelerating trade and investme
When and how should the European Union conclude an investment agreement with China?
A look into the potential Comprehensive Agreement on Investment between China and the European Union.
A silver lining for ageing Asia
An ageing population is generally bad news for growth prospects, but Japan and Taiwan offer important lessons.
Europe is losing competitiveness in global value chains while China surges
The European Union owes much of its economic weight to its regional value chain and integration into the global value chain. But the EU’s global value
China-EU economic relations in the era of US-China economic competition
Testimony before the European Parliament on the subject of China-EU economic relations.
RCEP might not stop reshuffling of Asian value chains
China is no doubt bound to benefit, but other members of the regional trade pact may benefit even more
Hong Kong’s Intermediary Role on Funding the BRI: How does it fare against Singapore?
A look into the intermediary role of Hong Kong in financing cross-border Belt and Road Initiative projects and compare it with Singapore, a similar of
Fifth Plenum maps China’s response to a more hostile world
'The Communist Party has acknowledged that the outside world now is more of a risk than an opportunity.'
China's yuan nowhere near cracking US dollar hegemony
For all Beijing's ambitions of cracking the hegemony of the US dollar in the face of Trump administration sanctions, the yuan still has a long way to
Politics, not economics, demands a strengthened international role for the euro
Not just the EU but also other countries, particularly China, need a defence against weaponisation of the dollar.
The pandemic will structurally change the global economy more than we think
It is time to rethink many of the basic principles of our economic model to mitigate the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Non-summit shows EU-China ties at new low
There was nothing concrete to justify calling this video conference an EU-China Summit.
China's 'dual circulation' plan is bad news for others' exports
Coronavirus recovery: invest rainy day savings to boost Hong Kong’s economy
The Hong Kong government might want to consider diversifying its economy by using part of the savings earmarked for rainy days. Beyond cushioning the
China Has an Unfair Advantage in the EU Market. What Can Be Done to Level the Playing Field?
China's targeted corporate shopping spree to continue, especially in Europe
Expect small, below the radar deals to continue to flourish and, by the same token, Europe to lose part of its edge in industrial technology and other
Debt relief for Sub-Saharan Africa: what now?
When G20 finance heads meet on 18 July, Europe will again need to lead on the group’s flagship COVID-19 initiative to postpone low-income countries’ d
Credible emerging market central banks could embrace quantitative easing to fight COVID-19
Emerging economies are fighting COVID-19 and the economic sudden stop imposed by the containment and lockdown policies, in the same way as advanced ec
Toward a smart Indian response to China
Rather than risking its soldiers' lives on the border, India should join 'middle power' economic coalitions to address China's behavior.
EU-China trade and investment relations in challenging times
In this report, we have focused on trade and investment relations and have not attempted to define the many other policy instruments that the EU can a
Covid-19 and emerging economies: What to expect in the short- and medium-term
COVID-19’s reality shock for external-funding dependent emerging economies
COVID-19 is by far the biggest challenge policymakers in emerging economies have had to deal with in recent history. Beyond the potentially large nega
Reading tea leaves from China’s two sessions: Large monetary and fiscal stimulus and still no growth guarantee
The announcement of a large stimulus without a growth target indicates that China’s recovery is far from complete.
Covid19 and emerging economies
What to expect in the short and medium term? Covid-19 will consequently push for a quick reshuffling of the global value chain away from the emerging
Depression, and not stagflation, could haunt China in 2020
Why are some stock markets in Asia less affected by coronavirus?
While Asian markets are in a sea of red, mainland China, New Zealand, Hong Kong and Taiwan are all defying the gravity.
From G7 to G20: passing three hot potatoes
Yesterday’s G7 video-conference ended in silence. It wasn’t even possible for the group to issue a joint statement after the US administration's push
A letter to Santa, the G7
The G7 should set an example of international cooperation and come out with a strong signal of unity and support for the euro-area. Only then will the
Only the coronavirus can convince Trump of the virtues of international cooperation
Given how badly the coronavirus outbreak in the US is affecting Trump’s chances to be reelected, let’s hope he comes to its senses and see the advanta
Uncoordinated policies behind market collapse
Underlying issues, and not just the coronavirus panic, fed the recent meltdown
Downsides to Hong Kong’s untargeted cash handout
The stimulus is regressive in nature, as the bulk of expenditure is a one-off cash disbursement per adult
Companies must move supply chains further from China
Virus shows Southeast Asian factories too dependent on imported production inputs
Why the US Trade Agreement will slow China’s economy
The response of the global financial markets to the trade agreement reached between the United States and China has been very positive, probably exces
Epidemic tests China’s supply chain dominance
Much has been written on the Wuhan coronavirus that causes the respiratory disease Covid-19, but very little is known yet about its impact on the glob
China’s Coronavirus will not lead to recession but to stimulus and even more debt
The coronavirus outbreak will not lead to recession but the costs of ensuring growth targets will be high
From globalization to deglobalization: Zooming into trade
This article shows some evidence of the decrease in merchandise, capital and, to a lesser extent people to people flows.
The US-China trade agreement will not put an end to geopolitical risks
The agreement between the US and China should not be read so positively in Europe, especially in Germany
Stability remains key to China
The most concerning aspect for the Chinese economy will still be to hold up domestic demand. The rapidly rising household debt will put further breaks
Japanese economy: Déjà vu – but worse
It is difficult to imagine how Japan can undertake any major economic reform if it has taken five years to increase the consumption tax and has needed
Watch out for China’s currency in case of no-deal scenario
The U.S. and China’s negotiations on a phase-one deal seem to have stalled again. The market was already aware of the limited nature of the likely dea
Hong Kong’s Economy is in Danger of Further Contraction
Approaching the end of a volatile year, Hong Kong continues to face the triple whammy of slower growth in mainland China, the trade war uncertainty an
How does China fare on the Russian market? Implications for the European Union
China’s economic ties with Russia are deepening. Meanwhile, Europe remains Russia’s largest trading partner, lender and investor. An analysis of China
Why sentiment in Greater Bay Area is deteriorating, especially in Hong Kong
Lack of concrete plans affects sentiment after brief surge on announcement of Outline Development Plan for the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay A
Upbeat outlook from Chinese banks' profits masks growing problems for small banks
The performance of Chinese banks has been resilient so far, despite decelerating growth. While the performance of large banks remained steady, the reb
China’s growing presence on the Russian market and what it means for the European Union
The European Union’s relationship with Russia is strained, but the two economies are nevertheless highly intertwined. A huge share of Russia’s exports
Why investors should temper optimism over a China trade rally
The economy is in worse shape than in 2015 and policies to boost growth are not as effective as they once were
HK, Taiwan divergence result of economic policies
While the effect of the ongoing unrest on the Hong Kong economy is obvious, Taiwan was already doing better before the protests started.
Bolsonaro’s pilgrimage to Beijing
A strategic alliance between Brazil and China could be music to the ears for both leaders, but Bolsonaro does not want to look like one more vassal. X
Southbound flows rescuing Hong Kong equity market
China seems to be coming to the rescue as social unrest affects the city’s financial market, but it’s probably only for arbitrage reasons
China's dual banking system: consolidation as the final solution for weak small banks
There are fundamental solvency and liquidity issues for some small Chinese banks, widely influencing both the bond market as well as the broader finan