Zsolt Darvas, a Hungarian citizen, joined Bruegel as a Visiting Fellow in September 2008 and continued his work at Bruegel as a Research Fellow from January 2009, before being appointed Senior Fellow from September 2013. He is also a Senior Research Fellow at the Corvinus University of Budapest.
From 2005 to 2008, he was the Research Advisor of the Argenta Financial Research Group in Budapest. Before that, he worked at the research unit of the Central Bank of Hungary (1994-2005) where he served as Deputy Head.
Zsolt holds a Ph.D. in Economics from Corvinus University of Budapest where he teaches courses in Econometrics but also at other institutions since 1994. His research interests include macroeconomics, international economics, central banking and time series analysis.
Disclaimer of external interests
At this event we will focus on the EU's proposed growth plan for the Western Balkans
The EU has outperformed the US on per-capita output growth; in terms of output per hour worked, some EU countries are as productive as the US
This paper focuses on the fiscal adjustment that the first regulation would require of countries with debt above the treaty benchmarks.
A symphony in progress: shaping a new agenda for Europe
Annual Conference of the Future of Work and Inclusive Growth project
The proposed new fiscal rules constitute a major improvement from the current fiscal framework but missed an opportunity to foster green investment.
Since 2020, the European Union has suffered two large shocks, which have created new fiscal challenges for the EU.
The rules and guidance underpinning EU economic recovery funds seek inputs and outputs, not results; this has led to uneven use of results indicators
Given the need to reduce large budget deficits, what are some strategies for increasing public climate spending?
Despite calls for interest rate hikes to be paused, both the ECB and Federal raised rates- which was the right decision.
There is a negative correlation between collective bargaining coverage and inequality, but more research is needed to understand why.
The US economy was more resilient against the two recent global crises, while the EU did better in terms of jobs during and after the pandemic.
This study draws out lessons for the future of the EU economic governance framework from certain aspects of the RRF design.
Invitation-only event with Joseph Gagnon, who will discuss the link between employment and inflation and its implications for macroeconomic policy.
In 2023 we might see positive economic surprises in Europe: better-than-expected growth and lower-than-expected inflation.
The direct aim of trade sanctions seems to have been achieved, while Russia’s capacity to finance the war from fossil fuel revenues is bound to shrink
Presented as a new departure in EU policy-making, the EU’s Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) is now in its second year of implementation.
What factors contribute to inequalities on both sides of the Atlantic, and how should policymakers address them?
Low-skill workers have seen faster wage growth than high-skill workers in many EU countries, contrary to the United States.
The European Union faces recession, but the way in which policymakers manage the energy crisis will determine its depth and duration.
While mistakes unduly constrained rate hikes, gradual tightening is the right approach along with a new instrument to address energy bottlenecks.
A paper assessing the ECB policy errors that occurred in the last year, and the appropriateness of the current monetary policy stance of the ECB.
Russia has recorded a record trade surplus, but more than half of its increase is due to the collapse of imports.
The Annual Meetings are Bruegel's flagship event which gathers high-level speakers to discuss the economic topics that affect Europe and the world.
How can the public sector meet the climate funding needs of the EU?
Expected increases in interest rates and reductions in real GDP growth rates will result in relatively small increases in public debt-to-GDP ratios.
Crucial decisions about whether a country can join the euro area depend on questionable discretionary decisions.
Hosting Ukrainian refugees could cost European Union countries in excess of €40 billion this year. A dedicated EU fund is needed to manage the burden.
In-depth analysis on the banking supervision cooperation in Bulgaria and Croatia prepared for the European Parliament's Committee on Economic and Mone
The EU’s ambitious emissions reduction targets will require a major increase in green investments. This column considers options for increasing public
This Microprod policy conference discussed how productivity is affected by globalisation and digitisation.
Adjustments to growth forecasts mean some countries will get 10% more than expected and others 20% less in grants from the EU Recovery and Resilience
Identical European Commission assessments that EU countries’ recovery plan cost justifications are ‘medium-quality’ undermine trust in the assessments
Spending and borrowing via a non-redistributive EU climate fund or under a well-designed green golden rule would result in similar project implementat
This paper contributes to the measurement of monthly consumer price index-based real effective exchange rates with two main novelties.
How can the European Green Deal be implemented beyond Brussels?
What are the possibilities for shaping the new fiscal policy?
The ECB’s preferred method to include owner-occupied housing services in the inflation indicator would involve an asset price.
Testimony to the Monetary Dialogue Preparatory Meeting of the European Parliament's Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON).
In-depth analysis on the European Central Bank's revised inflation target prepared for the European Parliament's Committee on Economic and Monetary Af
Testimony before the European Parliament’s Committee for Budgetary Control (CONT) on the topic "Capacity for proper expenditure controls of the increa
A fiscal exit strategy must be put in place when the EU is pursuing the major goal of cutting its emissions
Bruegel Annual Meetings, Day 2 - A discussion of the largest national recovery plan.
The 2021 Annual Meetings gathered high-level speakers and participants to discuss how to recover from the crises brought on by the Covid pandemic
The recovery facility will boost digital transformation, but questions remain whether it will be sufficient to achieve Europe’s digital ambitions.
In this event, participants will take a closer look at the recovery plans submitted by EU countries.
How can new EU funds supplement national digital and green funding and EU funds from the standard seven-year EU budget to accelerate digitalisation?
Policymakers must act to prevent lasting divergence within the EU and to prevent scarring from the fallout from the pandemic.
Plans for spending European Union recovery funds submitted by the four largest EU countries reflect rather different priorities. So far, only Italy is
What has the impact of the pandemic on households’ financial resilience been, and how should policy makers respond?
This report explores the distribution of household wealth in the EU Member States and analyses the role of wealth in social mobility.
Less-educated workers have suffered most from job losses in the COVID-19 pandemic, and it is quite likely there was a significant increase in European
Joint EU borrowing to boost the recovery, if not treated as national deficit and debt, will substantially ease rules-based fiscal adjustment needs in
A new approach, which estimates 'unexplained economic growth', provides insights into the types of European Union cohesion projects that produce bette
Estimates of payments countries will receive from the Next Generation EU instrument can be made with some degree of precision. But estimating countrie
The 2020 pandemic economic shock has led to reassessment of fiscal policy measures in 2018 and earlier, because of faulty measurement of unobserved ou
What new innovative tools can we use to measure real-time economic and social risk?
Workers with low-educational levels suffered far worse than others in terms of COVID-19 related job losses during the first half of 2020 in the EU. Jo
Testimony before the European Parliament on the subject of euro area accession.
Testimony before the European Parliament on the subject of EU fiscal policies.
How much cake does everyone actually get and at what speed?
European Union countries can reduce inequality of opportunity through public spending and tax decisions. Broadly, the most effective approach includes
This briefing paper focuses on two aspects of the EU fiscal framework: whether an expenditure rule would be more reliable than a structural budget bal
To help finance the post-coronavirus recovery, the European Union is raising large amounts to pass on to its members. But absorption of EU funds is ty
Western European imports from central Europe have fallen dramatically, while imports from China fell much less, and had already recovered to pre-COVID
The European Commission’s original allocation mechanism really favoured lower-income countries and to a large extent was based on pre-COVID economic d
Poorer European Union countries and those hardest hit economically by the COVID-19 crisis could obtain up to 15% of their GNI in grants and guarantees
Because of hurdles in designing, approving and implementing European Union programmes, less than a quarter of the €438 billion in grants planned under
Apart from decisive European Central Bank measures, the EU-wide response to the COVID crisis had been rather weak until the Commission put on the tabl
This paper presents unprecedented exchange rate forecasting results based upon a new model which approximates the gap between the fundamental equilibr
The likely economic depression triggered by coronavirus will pose a serious fiscal challenge to some euro-area countries. Given the special circumstan
The EU cannot meet its ‘poverty’ targets, because the main indicator used to measure poverty actually measures income inequality. The use of the wrong
Current housing markets relative to those pre-crisis seem to be far less driven by mortgage credit, and the size of the construction sector has not in
The European Central Bank’s November 2019 Financial Stability Review highlighted the risks to growth in an environment of global uncertainty. On the w
Trade and finance expanded in Europe after the financial crisis, while public support for globalisation is on the rise, supported by low unemployment.
The gap between payments into the EU budget and EU spending in a particular country has importance when EU spending does not constitute European publi
This post estimates the United Kingdom’s net contribution to the 2021-2027 EU multiannual budget at close to €20 billion, taking into account the most
Whenever the European Union’s budget is discussed, much of the political focus is on net balances – whether countries pay in more than they receive –
A complex system of EU budget revenue corrections has been developed since the mid-1980s. I quantify their impacts: which countries pay and benefit fr
Cross-border, but not national, EU interregional development projects are associated with higher growth
Our calculations reveal that places where EU regional development projects bind together participants from different countries experience higher econo
The debate on euro adoption by central European EU countries has intensified in the last years. In this Policy Contribution the author does not review
The 10-year real government bond yield, which is the nominal yield deflated by expected inflation, has fallen below zero in Italy and Greece, boosted
A prominent team from DG ECFIN of the European Commission challenged some of the criticisms of the EU’s methodology for estimating potential output an
Proposals to reform the euro area are on the agenda again. An overhaul of the complex set of European fiscal rules should be top priority on this agen
European Commission President-elect Ursula von der Leyen disseminated her mission letters to commissioner-designates. In my opinion, the letters to ec