Zsolt Darvas, a Hungarian citizen, joined Bruegel as a Visiting Fellow in September 2008 and continued his work at Bruegel as a Research Fellow from January 2009, before being appointed Senior Fellow from September 2013. He is also a Senior Research Fellow at the Corvinus University of Budapest.
From 2005 to 2008, he was the Research Advisor of the Argenta Financial Research Group in Budapest. Before that, he worked at the research unit of the Central Bank of Hungary (1994-2005) where he served as Deputy Head.
Zsolt holds a Ph.D. in Economics from Corvinus University of Budapest where he teaches courses in Econometrics but also at other institutions since 1994. His research interests include macroeconomics, international economics, central banking and time series analysis.
Disclaimer of external interests
Low-skill workers have seen faster wage growth than high-skill workers in many EU countries, contrary to the United States.
The European Union faces recession, but the way in which policymakers manage the energy crisis will determine its depth and duration.
While mistakes unduly constrained rate hikes, gradual tightening is the right approach along with a new instrument to address energy bottlenecks.
A paper assessing the ECB policy errors that occurred in the last year, and the appropriateness of the current monetary policy stance of the ECB.
Russia has recorded a record trade surplus, but more than half of its increase is due to the collapse of imports.
Expected increases in interest rates and reductions in real GDP growth rates will result in relatively small increases in public debt-to-GDP ratios.
Crucial decisions about whether a country can join the euro area depend on questionable discretionary decisions.
Hosting Ukrainian refugees could cost European Union countries in excess of €40 billion this year. A dedicated EU fund is needed to manage the burden.
In-depth analysis on the banking supervision cooperation in Bulgaria and Croatia prepared for the European Parliament's Committee on Economic and Mone
The EU’s ambitious emissions reduction targets will require a major increase in green investments. This column considers options for increasing public
Adjustments to growth forecasts mean some countries will get 10% more than expected and others 20% less in grants from the EU Recovery and Resilience
Identical European Commission assessments that EU countries’ recovery plan cost justifications are ‘medium-quality’ undermine trust in the assessments
Spending and borrowing via a non-redistributive EU climate fund or under a well-designed green golden rule would result in similar project implementat
This paper contributes to the measurement of monthly consumer price index-based real effective exchange rates with two main novelties.
The ECB’s preferred method to include owner-occupied housing services in the inflation indicator would involve an asset price.
Testimony to the Monetary Dialogue Preparatory Meeting of the European Parliament's Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON).
In-depth analysis on the European Central Bank's revised inflation target prepared for the European Parliament's Committee on Economic and Monetary Af
Testimony before the European Parliament’s Committee for Budgetary Control (CONT) on the topic "Capacity for proper expenditure controls of the increa
A fiscal exit strategy must be put in place when the EU is pursuing the major goal of cutting its emissions
The recovery facility will boost digital transformation, but questions remain whether it will be sufficient to achieve Europe’s digital ambitions.
Policymakers must act to prevent lasting divergence within the EU and to prevent scarring from the fallout from the pandemic.
Plans for spending European Union recovery funds submitted by the four largest EU countries reflect rather different priorities. So far, only Italy is
This report explores the distribution of household wealth in the EU Member States and analyses the role of wealth in social mobility.
Less-educated workers have suffered most from job losses in the COVID-19 pandemic, and it is quite likely there was a significant increase in European
Joint EU borrowing to boost the recovery, if not treated as national deficit and debt, will substantially ease rules-based fiscal adjustment needs in
A new approach, which estimates 'unexplained economic growth', provides insights into the types of European Union cohesion projects that produce bette
Estimates of payments countries will receive from the Next Generation EU instrument can be made with some degree of precision. But estimating countrie
The 2020 pandemic economic shock has led to reassessment of fiscal policy measures in 2018 and earlier, because of faulty measurement of unobserved ou
Workers with low-educational levels suffered far worse than others in terms of COVID-19 related job losses during the first half of 2020 in the EU. Jo
Testimony before the European Parliament on the subject of euro area accession.
Testimony before the European Parliament on the subject of EU fiscal policies.
How much cake does everyone actually get and at what speed? This blogpost estimates the yearly Next Generation EU (NGEU) payments to each EU country a
European Union countries can reduce inequality of opportunity through public spending and tax decisions. Broadly, the most effective approach includes
This briefing paper focuses on two aspects of the EU fiscal framework: whether an expenditure rule would be more reliable than a structural budget bal
To help finance the post-coronavirus recovery, the European Union is raising large amounts to pass on to its members. But absorption of EU funds is ty
Western European imports from central Europe have fallen dramatically, while imports from China fell much less, and had already recovered to pre-COVID
The European Commission’s original allocation mechanism really favoured lower-income countries and to a large extent was based on pre-COVID economic d
Poorer European Union countries and those hardest hit economically by the COVID-19 crisis could obtain up to 15% of their GNI in grants and guarantees
Because of hurdles in designing, approving and implementing European Union programmes, less than a quarter of the €438 billion in grants planned under
Apart from decisive European Central Bank measures, the EU-wide response to the COVID crisis had been rather weak until the Commission put on the tabl
This paper presents unprecedented exchange rate forecasting results based upon a new model which approximates the gap between the fundamental equilibr
The likely economic depression triggered by coronavirus will pose a serious fiscal challenge to some euro-area countries. Given the special circumstan
The EU cannot meet its ‘poverty’ targets, because the main indicator used to measure poverty actually measures income inequality. The use of the wrong
Current housing markets relative to those pre-crisis seem to be far less driven by mortgage credit, and the size of the construction sector has not in
The European Central Bank’s November 2019 Financial Stability Review highlighted the risks to growth in an environment of global uncertainty. On the w
Trade and finance expanded in Europe after the financial crisis, while public support for globalisation is on the rise, supported by low unemployment.
The gap between payments into the EU budget and EU spending in a particular country has importance when EU spending does not constitute European publi
This post estimates the United Kingdom’s net contribution to the 2021-2027 EU multiannual budget at close to €20 billion, taking into account the most
Whenever the European Union’s budget is discussed, much of the political focus is on net balances – whether countries pay in more than they receive –
A complex system of EU budget revenue corrections has been developed since the mid-1980s. I quantify their impacts: which countries pay and benefit fr
Cross-border, but not national, EU interregional development projects are associated with higher growth
Our calculations reveal that places where EU regional development projects bind together participants from different countries experience higher econo
The debate on euro adoption by central European EU countries has intensified in the last years. In this Policy Contribution the author does not review
The 10-year real government bond yield, which is the nominal yield deflated by expected inflation, has fallen below zero in Italy and Greece, boosted
A prominent team from DG ECFIN of the European Commission challenged some of the criticisms of the EU’s methodology for estimating potential output an
Proposals to reform the euro area are on the agenda again. An overhaul of the complex set of European fiscal rules should be top priority on this agen
European Commission President-elect Ursula von der Leyen disseminated her mission letters to commissioner-designates. In my opinion, the letters to ec
The EU fiscal framework strongly relies on the structural budget balance indicator, which aims to measure the ‘underlying’ position of the budget. But
Effectiveness of cohesion policy: learning from the project characteristics that produce the best results
This study by Zsolt Darvas, Antoine Mathieu Collin, Jan Mazza, and Catarina Midões analyses the characteristics of cohesion policy projects that can c
Economic growth was diverse across EU regions, yet it is crucial to control for region-specific factors in assessing growth performance. We find that
This policy contribution investigates the performance of the design, implementation and effectiveness of cohesion policy, the most evaluated EU tool f
Without China and India, global interpersonal income inequality in 143 countries was higher in 2015 than in 1988. Has the rest of the world really bec
Since their accession to the EU 15 years ago, the incomes of most central Europeans have increased faster than the incomes of longer-standing members
Effectiveness of cohesion policy: Learning from the project characteristics that produce the best results
Testimony at the Committee on Budgetary Control of the European Parliament.
A no-deal Brexit would mean the UK’s contributions to the EU budget fall to zero as of March 30th 2019. The author here calculates an estimate of the
What did we learn from the recent monetary policy normalisation experiences of Sweden, the United States and the United Kingdom? Zsolt Darvas consider
In the past five years ECB forecasts have proven to be systematically incorrect: core inflation remained broadly stable at 1% despite the stubbornly p
Reconciling contradictory forces: financial inclusion of refugees and know-your-customer regulations
The authors contributed to the new issue of the 'Journal of Banking Regulation' with a paper on financial inclusion initiatives and banking regulation
In this Policy Contribution prepared for the French Conseil d’Analyse Économique, the authors assess current European fiscal rules and propose a major
After being under the close scrutiny of three financial assistance programmes since May 2010, Greece has finally left the bail-out in August 2018. How
In this Policy Contribution prepared for the European Parliament’s Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) as an input to the Monetary Dialo
Proposals for reforming the euro area back on the agenda. An overhaul of the European fiscal rules should be on high on this agenda, because the curre
Bruegel scholars Zsolt Darvas and Guntram Wolff contributed to the September 2018 edition of the OeNB's Focus on European Economic Integration.
Eurozone membership (or the use of a fixed exchange rate) was not a factor determining economic success in Central Europe. There were both good and ba
Health-care systems play a crucial role in supporting human health. They also have major macroeconomic implications, an aspect that is not always prop
Testimony before the European Parliament Committee on the Internal Market and Consumer Protection (IMCO).
Over the past decade, the income share of low earners has increased in the EU while that of top earners has slightly declined. Although the upward con
The Commission’s proposal for the next Multiannual Financial Framework provides a good basis for subsequent negotiations and includes a number of bold
This study provides an overview, analysis and evaluation of how EU funds for migration, asylum and integration policies have been used. Using publicly
Cohesion spending is proposed by the Commission to increase by 6% in the next MFF, but inflation is expected to reduce the real value of such spending
Following almost a decade of relative stability, income inequality within the EU recorded a sizeable decline in 2016, reaching its lowest value since
Income inequality among citizens of 146 continues to fall, though at a somewhat reduced pace, according to the updated Bruegel dataset. Income conver
Better-than-expected growth performance reflects the underlying positive changes in the Greek economy – but net investment is in fact negative, while
There will be a €94 billion Brexit-related hole in the EU budget for 2021-27 if business continues as before and the United Kingdom does not contribut
Why is it so hard to reach the Europe 2020 ‘poverty’ target? What does the poverty indicator actually measure? Why was the Lisbon strategy goal of tac
On 27 February 2018 Zsolt Darvas testified at the Home Affairs Committee of the House of Commons. This inquiry explores the potential trade-offs betwe
Border control and burden-sharing of refugees is just one aspect of immigration policies. Greater financial inclusion and the tailoring of regulations
EU membership led to major financial and economic advantages to central European Member States, partly by encouraging foreign investment. Widespread f
Historically high labour shortages in most central-eastern and north-western EU countries suggest that the immigration of central Europeans to north-w
Migration is one of the most divisive policy topics in today’s Europe. In this publication, the authors assess the immigration challenge that the EU f
UK business confidence indicators hardly fell after the Brexit vote in 2016 and have been increasing steadily since. The most likely reason is an expe
Creation of a European identification for refugees and a pan-European registry would encourage better financial inclusion, along with clear guidelines
Europeans’ enthusiasm for immigration from other EU countries is steadily increasing –two-thirds of the EU population, on average, now support it.
Natural change of EU28 population (the balance of live births and deaths) has fallen from high positive values in the 1960s to essentially zero recent