Guntram B. Wolff
Guntram Wolff is a Senior Fellow at Bruegel. He specialises in a range of issues, including defence economics, particularly European rearmament, European governance, and the geoeconomics of trade, finance, climate policy and euro-area fiscal policy.
He speaks English, German and French.
He is a Professor of Economics at the Université libre de Bruxelles and also a fellow at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. Previously, he was the director of Bruegel (2013-22) and the German Council on Foreign Relations (2022-24). He worked on the macroeconomics and governance of the euro area at the European Commission and the research department at the Bundesbank. He also worked as an external adviser to the International Monetary Fund. From 2012-16, he was a member of the French prime minister’s Conseil d’Analyse Economique. He holds a PhD in Economics from the University of Bonn.
His detailed CV and publications are available at www.guntramwolff.net
Disclosure of interests
Featured work
Could a Hormuz toll solve the oil crisis and who pays?
With a return to the pre-Iran conflict energy status quo unlikely, a Hormuz toll may be the next best option – but Gulf states would pay the most
The costs and failures of air defence in the Iran conflict and what they mean for Europe
Shoring up Europe’s defensive capabilities needs to focus on cheap interceptors and offensive capability to target military industries
Europe’s dependence on US foreign military sales: evidence for policy makers from a new database
Investing for tomorrow: long-term investment, economic scale and the green transition
Climate mitigation investment increases with long horizons, economic scale and investor diversity, underscoring long-term capital and climate clubs
US Foreign Military Sales
This dataset offers detailed information on FMS notifications of transfers of military equipment from the US to foreign governments.
Reforming European defence procurement to boost military innovation and startups
European defence procurement practices must evolve to embrace innovative startups and small firms, in order to meet modern battlefield needs
Pivot to Asia, Europe or the Homeland? 18 Years of US Foreign Military Sales
Europe and the Iran war
What does the conflict mean for inflation, oil prices, the economy and Ukraine?
Why does European rearmament need European competition?
Greenland is not marginal: the US takeover threat is a strategic test for Europe
European powers should provide backing for Nuuk and Copenhagen by establishing a greater military presence in Greenland
The hidden dependency on Europe's security
Rethinking the governance and funding of European rearmament
Ukraine talks: peace progress or dead end?
How should the EU manage negotiations with Ukraine, the US and Russia?
Understanding US foreign military sales globally since 2008: an analysis of a new dataset
The paper presents a new dataset of all US Foreign Military Sales since 2008 and analyses global trends in volumes and equipment types
How can Europe stress test its reliance on US military exports?
Climate, data and complacency
Why economists need to take the costs of climate change more seriously
Europe’s dependence on US foreign military sales and what to do about it
Europe’s reliance on US arms raises autonomy concerns, as security worsens and leaders aim to cut strategic and technological dependence
Peace through strength: why Europe needs a missile deterrent
Europe should acknowledge the limitations of air defence and build up its capacity to hit back at Russia as a deterrent
The Governance and Funding of European Rearmament
Fit for war by 2030? European rearmament vis-a-vis Russia lagging in numbers and technologies
All work
Analysis
08 April 2026
Could a Hormuz toll solve the oil crisis and who pays?
With a return to the pre-Iran conflict energy status quo unlikely, a Hormuz toll may be the next best option – but Gulf states would pay the most
External publication
30 March 2026
First Glance
30 March 2026
The costs and failures of air defence in the Iran conflict and what they mean for Europe
Shoring up Europe’s defensive capabilities needs to focus on cheap interceptors and offensive capability to target military industries
External publication
05 March 2026
Working paper
18 March 2026
Investing for tomorrow: long-term investment, economic scale and the green transition
Climate mitigation investment increases with long horizons, economic scale and investor diversity, underscoring long-term capital and climate clubs
Dataset
12 March 2026
US Foreign Military Sales
This dataset offers detailed information on FMS notifications of transfers of military equipment from the US to foreign governments.
Policy Brief
05 March 2026
Reforming European defence procurement to boost military innovation and startups
European defence procurement practices must evolve to embrace innovative startups and small firms, in order to meet modern battlefield needs
Podcast
02 March 2026
Europe and the Iran war
What does the conflict mean for inflation, oil prices, the economy and Ukraine?
Newsletter
16 February 2026
External publication
31 January 2025