Guntram B. Wolff
Guntram Wolff is a Senior Fellow at Bruegel. He specialises in a range of issues, including defence economics, particularly European rearmament, European governance, and the geoeconomics of trade, finance, climate policy and euro-area fiscal policy.
He speaks English, German and French.
He is a Professor of Economics at the Université libre de Bruxelles and also a fellow at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. Previously, he was the director of Bruegel (2013-22) and the German Council on Foreign Relations (2022-24). He worked on the macroeconomics and governance of the euro area at the European Commission and the research department at the Bundesbank. He also worked as an external adviser to the International Monetary Fund. From 2012-16, he was a member of the French prime minister’s Conseil d’Analyse Economique. He holds a PhD in Economics from the University of Bonn.
His detailed CV and publications are available at www.guntramwolff.net
Disclosure of interests
Featured work
NRPPs and lessons from the RRF delivery model: long-term EU resilience and social cohesion in the context of demographic challenges
German rearmament under the spotlight
Germany’s rearmament effort is laying bare its structural weaknesses in strategic, technological and operational modernisation
Green bonds are easier to trade than often assumed
A quantitative analysis shows green bond markets are liquid and resilient; certification and project selection are big factors in their attractiveness
Defence innovation and procurement reform: an empirical evaluation of the US Defense Innovation Unit
Leading in spending, lagging in innovation: German defence procurement compared to the UK and Poland
This report shows that orders have grown rapidly in frequency, size and number since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine
US Foreign Military Sales
This dataset offers detailed information on FMS notifications of transfers of military equipment from the US to foreign governments.
Who controls the defence industry?
The defence industry is gaining importance in Europe, but the methods by which states exercise control over it are varied and poorly understood
Weapons, war and confusion
How will Europe and the US build and pay for the arsenals of the future?
Europe beyond unanimity on security
A new European Security Treaty using majority voting would end veto abuse and build shared defence capabilities for a new geopolitical era
European Defence Markets: Overcoming National Preference and External Dependence
Could a Hormuz toll solve the oil crisis and who pays?
With a return to the pre-Iran conflict energy status quo unlikely, a Hormuz toll may be the next best option – but Gulf states would pay the most
The costs and failures of air defence in the Iran conflict and what they mean for Europe
Shoring up Europe’s defensive capabilities needs to focus on cheap interceptors and offensive capability to target military industries
Europe’s dependence on US foreign military sales: evidence for policy makers from a new database
Investing for tomorrow: long-term investment, economic scale and the green transition
Climate mitigation investment increases with long horizons, economic scale and investor diversity, underscoring long-term capital and climate clubs
Reforming European defence procurement to boost military innovation and startups
European defence procurement practices must evolve to embrace innovative startups and small firms, in order to meet modern battlefield needs
Pivot to Asia, Europe or the Homeland? 18 Years of US Foreign Military Sales
Europe and the Iran war
What does the conflict mean for inflation, oil prices, the economy and Ukraine?
Why does European rearmament need European competition?
Greenland is not marginal: the US takeover threat is a strategic test for Europe
European powers should provide backing for Nuuk and Copenhagen by establishing a greater military presence in Greenland
The hidden dependency on Europe's security
All work
News
03 June 2026
First Glance
03 June 2026
German rearmament under the spotlight
Germany’s rearmament effort is laying bare its structural weaknesses in strategic, technological and operational modernisation
First Glance
01 June 2026
Green bonds are easier to trade than often assumed
A quantitative analysis shows green bond markets are liquid and resilient; certification and project selection are big factors in their attractiveness
Working paper
28 May 2026
External publication
12 May 2026
Leading in spending, lagging in innovation: German defence procurement compared to the UK and Poland
This report shows that orders have grown rapidly in frequency, size and number since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine
Dataset
12 May 2026
US Foreign Military Sales
This dataset offers detailed information on FMS notifications of transfers of military equipment from the US to foreign governments.
Working paper
07 May 2026
Who controls the defence industry?
The defence industry is gaining importance in Europe, but the methods by which states exercise control over it are varied and poorly understood
Podcast
06 May 2026
Weapons, war and confusion
How will Europe and the US build and pay for the arsenals of the future?
Event
27 May 2026
Ireland’s 2026 EU Presidency: a conversation with Minister Thomas Byrne
What to expect ahead of the upcoming Irish presidency?
First Glance
28 April 2026
Europe beyond unanimity on security
A new European Security Treaty using majority voting would end veto abuse and build shared defence capabilities for a new geopolitical era