Grégory Claeys
Grégory Claeys, a French and Spanish citizen, joined Bruegel as a research fellow in February 2014, before being appointed senior fellow in April 2020.
Grégory’s research interests include international macroeconomics and finance, central banking and European governance. From 2006 to 2009 Grégory worked as a macroeconomist in the Economic Research Department of the French bank Crédit Agricole. Prior to joining Bruegel he also conducted research in several capacities, including as a visiting researcher in the Financial Research Department of the Central Bank of Chile in Santiago, and in the Economic Department of the French Embassy in Chicago. Grégory is also an Associate Professor at the Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers in Paris where he is teaching macroeconomics in the Master of Finance. He previously taught undergraduate macroeconomics at Sciences Po in Paris.
He holds a PhD in Economics from the European University Institute (Florence), an MSc in economics from Paris X University and an MSc in management from HEC (Paris).
Grégory is fluent in English, French and Spanish.
Disclaimer of external interests
Declaration of interests 2021-2022
Declaration of interests 2020-2021
Declaration of interests 2019-2020
Featured work
How rate increases could impact debt ratios in the euro area’s most-indebted countries
Debt-to-GDP ratios should continue to fall in euro-area countries despite rising interest rates, post 2023 the situation might vary across countries
A new European tool to deal with unjustified rising spreads
The ECB needs a new tool to prevent the current rise in spreads, triggered by monetary policy tightening, from escalating into a new euro-area crisis.
Fragmentation risk in the euro area: no easy way out for the European Central Bank
The ECB should design a specific tool that will accompany interest rate hikes to neutralise the risk of fragmentation directly for countries facing it
The low productivity of European firms: how can policies enhance the allocation of resources?
A summary of the most important policy lessons from research undertaken in the MICROPROD project work package 4, related to the allocation of the fact
The Euro in 2022
An annual review of the euro published jointly by Fundación ICO and Fundación de Estudios Financieros to expand knowledge, raise awareness of the sing
Who is suffering most from rising inflation?
The lowest income households are suffering disproportionally from the current inflation increase, with rising energy prices the main culprit.
EU borrowing—time to think of the generation after next
Financing post-pandemic recovery via EU borrowing has proved remarkably straightforward. So why keep it temporary?
Next Generation EU borrowing: a first assessment
The Next Generation EU programme is radically changing the way the EU finances itself and interacts with financial markets. This paper assesses the fi
How have the European Central Bank’s negative rates been passed on?
Negative rate cuts are not that different from ‘standard’ rate cuts. Like them, they reduce banks’ margins, but this effect does not appear to be ampl
What Are the Effects of the ECB’s Negative Interest Rate Policy?
This paper explores the potential effects (and side effects) of negative rates in theory and examines the evidence to determine what these effects hav
The great COVID-19 divergence: managing a sustainable and equitable recovery in the European Union
Policymakers must act to prevent lasting divergence within the EU and to prevent scarring from the fallout from the pandemic.
The ECB needs political guidance on secondary objectives
While EU Treaties clearly stipulate that the ECB “shall support the general objectives of the European Union”, it is not appropriate to simply stand b
How has COVID-19 affected inflation measurement in the euro area?
COVID-19 has complicated inflation measurement. Policymakers need to take this into account and should look at alternative measures of inflation to un
Corporate insolvencies during COVID-19: keeping calm before the storm
Measures in major economies have protected companies from COVID-19 related insolvency, but have also protected weak firms. Nevertheless, support shoul
The productivity paradox: policy lessons from MICROPROD
The objective of MICROPROD, an EU-wide research project that runs until the end of 2021, is to understand what is driving the current productivity slo
Building a Euro-area Budget Inside the EU Budget: Squaring the Circle?
As part of a volume on the Multiannual Financial Framework, the EUI recently published a chapter by Grégory Claeys on the creation of a euro area budg
The evolution of European economic institutions during the COVID-19 crisis
This article discusses how the European institutions reacted and evolved during the early stages of the COVID-19 crisis in the first half of 2020.
For the euro there is no shortcut to becoming a dominant currency
As an international currency, the euro has always been a distant second to the dollar. The idea of a greater international role for the euro has been
How Can the European Parliament Better Oversee the European Central Bank?
This paper, written at the request of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs, assesses how the European Parliament holds the European Central
Is the EU Council agreement aligned with the Green Deal ambitions?
On 21 July, EU leaders agreed on a €1.8 trillion package that should boost the recovery after the COVID-19 crisis, but also contribute to the advancem
One last push is needed to improve the Just Transition Fund proposal
The European Parliament and the Council still have an opportunity to improve the Just Transition Fund by refocusing it on social support and basing fu
Is the COVID-19 crisis an opportunity to boost the euro as a global currency?
The euro never challenged the US dollar, and its international status declined with the euro crisis. Faced with a US administration willing to use its
A Just Transition Fund – How the EU budget can help with the transition
On 14 January 2020, the European Commission published its proposal for a Just Transition Mechanism, intended to provide support to territories facing
The European Union’s SURE plan to safeguard employment: a small step forward
The new EU instrument to mitigate unemployment risks during an emergency (SURE) is too modest to have a significant impact the COVID-19 crisis beyond
The European Central Bank in the COVID-19 crisis: whatever it takes, within its mandate
To keep the euro-area economy afloat, the European Central Bank has put in place a large number of measures since the beginning of the COVID-19 crisis
Facing the lower bound: what will the ECB do in the next recession?
In responding to the global financial crisis, the ECB has pushed its monetary policy into unchartered territories . Today, it appears increasingly con
Europe needs a Covid-19 Recovery Programme
Policymakers need to think long-term and start planning a broad investment scheme to reboot the European economy.
COVID-19 Fiscal response: What are the options for the EU Council?
It is time for the EU Council to make quick progress on the fiscal front and announce something as soon as possible to show that it taken full measure
What should be done to reduce euro-area spreads?
Spreads are rising again in the euro-area at the worst possible time, when fiscal policy is needed to fight the coronavirus pandemic and the related e
Analysis of developments in EU capital flows in the global context
This report presents an overview of the recent trends of capital flows, focused especially on the past year. It provides a detailed analysis at the gl
How good is the European Commission’s Just Transition Fund proposal?
On 14 January 2020, the European Commission published its proposal for a Just Transition Mechanism, intended to provide support to territories facing
Berlin will make or break the European Green Deal
€1 trillion isn't enough for the European Green Deal and the EU's fiscal framework is constraining public investment. "Mrs Merkel, tear down this rule
A trillion reasons to scrutinise the Green Deal Investment Plan
The European Commission has revealed its €1 trillion investment plan for the European Green Deal. This will not be enough to unleash the expected “gre
The European Green Deal needs a reformed fiscal framework
The European Green Deal should include a sustainable investment strategy that will help citizens change behaviour and companies switch technologies. B
The next generation of digital currencies: in search of stability
Recent developments have re-opened the debate on the future of money. This Policy Contribution discusses two aspects: the implications of the rise of
Four pillars to make or break the European Green Deal
The recipe for a successful European Green Deal is as simple as it is breath-taking: to intelligently promote deep decarbonisation by accompanying the
How to make the European Green Deal work
Ursula von der Leyen has proposed a European Green Deal that would make Europe climate neutral by 2050. With this Policy Contribution, the authors pro
Challenges ahead for the European Central Bank: Navigating in the dark?
Since the second half of 2018, signs of a slowdown have been piling up in the euro area. The ECB will face major challenges in this potentially diffic
‘Lo spread’: The collateral damage of Italy’s confrontation with the EU
The authors assess whether the European Commission's actions towards Italy since September 2018 have had a visible impact on the spread between Italia
Preparing for uncertainty
Memo to the president of the European Central Bank. Grégory Claeys, Maria Demertzis and Francesco Papadia present the challenges that the next ECB pre
The evolution of the ECB governing council's decision-making
Before it is decided who will chair the governing council for the next eight years, the authors look back and examine precisely how decisions have bee
Soaring house prices in major cities: how to spot and moderate them
This article examines whether there are regional differences in house price growth within European countries and find a stronger cyclical pattern in c
How visible are independent fiscal institutions in public debate?
Independent fiscal institutions have no formal powers to act and have to rely on soft power to influence the budgetary process. This blog post investi
Analysis of developments in EU capital flows in the global context
The monitoring and analysis of capital movements is essential for policymakers, given that capital flows can have welfare implications. This report, c
Does the Eurogroup's reform of the ESM toolkit represent real progress?
The deal reached on euro-zone reform at the December 4th Eurogroup is not ground-breaking. However, it contains a number of incremental but potentiall
A monetary policy framework for the European Central Bank to deal with uncertainty
In this Policy Contribution prepared for the European Parliament’s Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) as an input to the Monetary Dialo
The distributional effects of climate policies
The distributional consequences are likely to be a major driver of future climate policies. Policymakers will not accept forceful decarbonisation poli
Italy’s new fiscal plans: the options of the European Commission
The Italian government has announced an increase of its deficit for 2019, breaking the commitment from the previous government to decrease it to 0.8%
Should we care about central bank profits?
The authors investigate the ECB’s profit-making activity of the last 20 years, assessing how this was achieved and the reasons why we should care more
The ECB is compromising the attractiveness of euro-area sovereign bonds
The ECB should refine its collateral framework in order to continue protecting its balance sheet without putting at risk the safe-asset status of sove
What should the EU do about the Turkish currency crisis?
The Turkish lira has been under significant pressure in recent weeks; in this blog post, the authors discuss the EU’s exposure to possible crisis in T
Cryptocurrencies and monetary policy
Can cryptocurrencies acquire the role of money? And what are the implications for central banks and monetary policy? Read the policy contribution to u
Is the ECB collateral framework compromising the safe-asset status of euro-area sovereign bonds?
Central banks’ collateral frameworks play an important role in defining what is considered as a safe asset. However, the ECB’s framework is unsatisfac
Are SBBS really the safe asset the euro area is looking for?
The European Commission is pushing to create a synthetic euro-area-wide safe asset in the form of sovereign bond-backed securities (SBBS). However, SB
The Commission’s proposal for the next MFF: A glass half-full
The Commission’s proposal for the next Multiannual Financial Framework provides a good basis for subsequent negotiations and includes a number of bold
Make euro-area sovereign bonds safe again
In their recent Policy Insight, the team of French and German authors suggest introducing sovereign bond-backed securities to play the role of safe as
New EMU stabilisation tool within the MFF will have minimal impact without deeper EU budget reform
The European Commission’s proposal for a new stabilisation instrument inside the EU budget for the countries of the economic and monetary union is dis
The European Globalisation Adjustment Fund: Time for a reset
It is only in the last decade that the EU has had an active policy to reintegrate workers who lost their jobs as a result of globalisation, through th
The European Globalisation Adjustment Fund: Easing the pain from trade?
With the European Globalisation Adjustment Fund (EGF), the EU now has an instrument to help workers negatively affected by trade find new jobs. Howev
Analysis of development in EU capital flows in the global context
The monitoring and analysis of capital movements is essential for policymakers, given that capital flows can have welfare implications. This report, c
How should the European Central Bank ‘normalise’ its monetary policy?
During the crisis, the ECB resorted to a number of unconventional monetary tools. This paper discusses how to phase out these policies and what the ‘n
The missing pieces of the euro architecture
What are the remaining fragilities of the Euro architecture? This policy contribution assesses the institutional reforms put in place during and after
Spotting excessive regional house price growth and what to do about it
Rapidly rising house prices are a well-known source of financial instability. This Policy Contribution examines whether there are regional differences
A New Liquidity Risk Measure for the Chilean Banking Sector
This paper introduces a new metric for central banks – and in particular for the Central Bank of Chile – to measure liquidity risk in their banking se
Is the recent increase in long-term interest rates a threat to euro-area recovery?
After reaching historically low levels, European long-term sovereign yields experienced a notable rise at the end of 2016 and beginning of 2017. This
Debunking 5 myths about Frexit
French elections are fast approaching and the debate on euro membership is now in full swing. ‘Frexit’ supporters promise that the benefits of leaving
Amsterdam’s boom-bust housing market needs its own mortgage limits
House prices in the Netherlands are on the rise again. But at the local level the pattern is very uneven: house prices in major cities are rising fast
What role for the financial markets in Europe?
The European financial system is too strongly bank-based. How can it be rebalanced to become favourable to growth and employment again? (This paper is
Low long-term rates: bond bubble or symptom of secular stagnation?
Yields on European sovereign bonds have reached historically low levels in 2016. This secular decline in long-term sovereign yields is not limited to
Now is the time to open Strasbourg’s ‘Bronislaw Geremek’ European University
It is the right time to revive the proposal made 10 years ago by Bronislaw Geremek and Jean-Didier Vincent to create a truly European University in th
The Juncker plan needs to be turned on its head
The Juncker Plan was launched one year ago to boost investment in Europe: has the plan been successful so far? How can we better use the EIB to increa
Assessing the Juncker Plan after one year
With the Juncker Plan, the European Commission intends to support valuable risky projects by expanding the risk capacity of the EIB. But has the new E
How to reform EU fiscal rules
The current inefficient European fiscal framework should be replaced with a system based on rules that are more conducive to the two objectives of pu
A proposal to revive the European Fiscal Framework
The current European fiscal framework is inefficient. It should be replaced with a system based on rules more suited to the two core objectives: publ
The European Central Bank’s quantitative easing programme: limits and risks
The ECB has made a series of changes to its QE programme in order to expand the universe of purchasable assets and have more flexibility in the execut
Have central banks lost their ability to control inflation?
The potential effects of global integration on inflation dynamics, and whether this could affect the ability of central banks to fulfil their mandates
Is globalisation reducing the ability of central banks to control inflation?
This Policy Contribution reviews the impact of globalisation on inflation dynamics, and it analyses whether and how this affects the ability of centra
Los trémulos cimientos del 'plan Juncker'
Los detalles del plan alimentan el escepticismo
Keep calm … and reach a deal ASAP
A clear majority of Greek citizens has decided to decline the creditors’ proposal that was on the table on June 25. This result should not be over-int
Juncker plan: the EIB in the driver’s seat
After weeks of negotiations with the European Commission and the Council of the EU, the European Parliament on 24 June adopted the text establishing t
The effects of ultra-loose monetary policies on inequality
This Policy Contribution was prepared for the European Parliament Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs. It assesses the impact of ultra-loose mo
Inflation Surprises
While it is still too early to tell if the ECB QE programme launched on March 9 will manage to bring back inflation towards the target in the medium t
ECB Quantitative Easing on track
On 9 March 2015 the ECB began purchasing European sovereign and agency bonds and supranational debt securities under the Public Sector Purchase Progra
The financial stability risks of ultra-loose monetary policy
This Policy Contribution was prepared for the European Parliament Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs. It draws lessons for the euro-area based
European Central Bank quantitative easing: the detailed manual
This Policy Contribution examines the detail of how quantitative easing will actually take place in the euro area and its implications, following
The “Plucking Model” of recessions and recoveries
The speed of economic recoveries is generally attributed mainly to economic policies. While this view might be true, a theory suggested by Milton Frie
Deflation in France, hidden behind tax hikes?
The significant divergence between the core inflation measures for France reported respectively by Eurostat and the national statistical office (
Licht- und Schattenseiten einer Gemeinsamen Arbeitslosenversicherung
Die Bruegel-Forscher Grégory Claeys, Zsolt Darvas und Guntram B. Wolff gehen der Frage nach, wie die Verwerfungen am Arbeitsmarkt im Euroraum behoben
Juncker’s investment plan: No risk – no return
President Juncker has presented the key features of the European Commission’s plan to boost investment in the EU. In this blog post we review the most
Measuring Europe’s investment problem
Under the leadership of Vice President Katainen, the Commission has designed a plan which will be announced this week. The announcement of the investm
Do it yourself European Unemployment Insurance
To illustrate our recent Policy Brief, this blog post proposes to give the reader the opportunity to take the main decisions on the design of a Europe
Benefits and drawbacks of European Unemployment Insurance
European Unemployment Insurance is one option for stabilising country specific economic cycles thanks to risk sharing, but it would not substanti
Towards a European unemployment insurance?
The Italian Presidency of the EU has asked Bruegel to give a presentation to European Labour and Social Ministers at the informal EPSCO meeting in Mil
The (not so) Unconventional Monetary Policy of the European Central Bank since 2008
This paper was prepared for the European Parliament's Montary Dialogue with the President of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi. Today, the ECB i
Secular stagnation in today's economy. How can it be addressed?
ECB shows activism but falls short of true QE
Overall, we welcome that the ECB has finally acted with a broad package. We also think that unanimity on the package was a very positive development a
Addressing weak inflation: The ECB’s shopping list
In this blogpost, we summarize our recently published paper, in which we discuss in detail the dilemmas for the ECB and the need to act. Inflation for
Addressing weak inflation: The European Central Bank's shopping list
Euro-area inflation has been below 1 percent since October 2013, and medium-term inflation expectations are well below 2 percent. Forecasts of the ret
The threat of low inflation in the eurozone
Is there a risk of deflation in the euro area?
Even though the euro area as a whole has not yet entered into deflation, this picture is worrying. Low inflation rates will make the relative price ad