Grégory Claeys
Grégory Claeys, a French and Spanish citizen, joined Bruegel as a research fellow in February 2014, before being appointed senior fellow in April 2020.
Grégory Claeys is currently on leave for public service, serving as Director of the Economics Department of France Stratégie, the think tank and policy planning institution of the French government, since November 2023.
Grégory’s research interests include international macroeconomics and finance, central banking and European governance. From 2006 to 2009 Grégory worked as a macroeconomist in the Economic Research Department of the French bank Crédit Agricole. Prior to joining Bruegel he also conducted research in several capacities, including as a visiting researcher in the Financial Research Department of the Central Bank of Chile in Santiago, and in the Economic Department of the French Embassy in Chicago. Grégory is also an Associate Professor at the Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers in Paris where he is teaching macroeconomics in the Master of Finance. He previously taught undergraduate macroeconomics at Sciences Po in Paris.
He holds a PhD in Economics from the European University Institute (Florence), an MSc in economics from Paris X University and an MSc in management from HEC (Paris).
Grégory is fluent in English, French and Spanish.
Disclaimer of external interests
Featured work
What will it cost the European Union to pay its economic recovery debt?
Servicing the EU debt until 2058 seems feasible, despite increased borrowing costs, but member countries must make choices about budget funding
An estimate of the European Union’s long-term borrowing cost bill
Managing Expectations: Inflation and Monetary Policy
Launch of one of the IMF World Economic Outlook analytical chapters
Inflation inequality in the European Union and its drivers
Bruegel Annual Meetings, 6-7 September 2023
A symphony in progress: shaping a new agenda for Europe
The value added of central bank digital currencies
Can Central Bank digital currencies be considered as the weapons of finance?
The rising cost of European Union borrowing and what to do about it
Interest rates on the EU debt have risen substantially since 2022: what are the main drivers and implications and what to do about it?
How should the EU deal with its rising borrowing costs?
The longer-term fiscal challenges facing the European Union
Since 2020, the European Union has suffered two large shocks, which have created new fiscal challenges for the EU.
The Net-Zero Industry Act puts EU credibility at risk
The EU Net-Zero Industry Act looks like it’s been set up to keep everyone happy – and to achieve limited results.
The Net-Zero Industry Act puts EU credibility at risk
Finding the right balance (sheet): quantitative tightening in the euro area
Shaping the future of the European Union: a discussion on public goods
Should the EU play a greater role as a provider of public goods?
Liquidity risk, market power and the informational effects of policy
Does inflation hit the poor hardest everywhere?
Low-income households suffer most from high inflation, but in some European Union countries the inflation burden is felt more equally than others.
Bruegel Annual Meetings, 6-7 September 2022
The Annual Meetings are Bruegel's flagship event which gathers high-level speakers to discuss the economic topics that affect Europe and the world.
How rate increases could impact debt ratios in the euro area’s most-indebted countries
Debt-to-GDP ratios should continue to fall in euro-area countries despite rising interest rates, post 2023 the situation might vary across countries
A new European tool to deal with unjustified rising spreads
The ECB needs a new tool to prevent the current rise in spreads, triggered by monetary policy tightening, from escalating into a new euro-area crisis.
Fragmentation risk in the euro area: no easy way out for the European Central Bank
The ECB should design a specific tool that will accompany interest rate hikes to neutralise the risk of fragmentation directly for countries facing it
The low productivity of European firms: how can policies enhance the allocation of resources?
Economists take total factor productivity (TFP) as one of the most informative indicators of the state of a country's economy.
The Euro in 2022
An annual review of the euro published jointly by Fundación ICO and Fundación de Estudios Financieros to expand knowledge, raise awareness of the sing
Who is suffering most from rising inflation?
The lowest income households are suffering disproportionally from the current inflation increase, with rising energy prices the main culprit.
EU borrowing—time to think of the generation after next
Financing post-pandemic recovery via EU borrowing has proved remarkably straightforward. So why keep it temporary?
Next Generation EU borrowing: a first assessment
What is new about NGEU is not just the increase in the EU’s borrowing power, but also the nature of the expenditure.
The Sound of Economics Live: Unboxing the State of the Union 2021
In this episode, we look at the State of the Union address delivered by Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission.
Monetary and macroeconomic policies at the crossroads
Bruegel Annual Meetings, Day 2- In this session we would like to discuss monetary and macroeconomic policies after Covid-19.
Bruegel Annual Meetings, 1-3 September 2021
The 2021 Annual Meetings gathered high-level speakers and participants to discuss how to recover from the crises brought on by the Covid pandemic
How have the European Central Bank’s negative rates been passed on?
Negative rate cuts are not that different from ‘standard’ rate cuts. Like them, they reduce banks’ margins, but this effect does not appear to be ampl
EU debt vs national debts: friends or foes?
The EU will become into a major issuer of safe assets in the coming years. How will this interact with the debt issuance of European sovereign debts?
What Are the Effects of the ECB’s Negative Interest Rate Policy?
This paper explores the potential effects (and side effects) of negative rates in theory and examines the evidence to determine what these effects hav
The great COVID-19 divergence: managing a sustainable and equitable recovery in the European Union
Policymakers must act to prevent lasting divergence within the EU and to prevent scarring from the fallout from the pandemic.
Sovereign ratings during crises: is this time different?
Why, despite the increase in public debt levels around the world have sovereign ratings been largely unaffected by the COVID-19 crisis?
The ECB needs political guidance on secondary objectives
While EU Treaties clearly stipulate that the ECB “shall support the general objectives of the European Union”, it is not appropriate to simply stand b
How has COVID-19 affected inflation measurement in the euro area?
COVID-19 has complicated inflation measurement. Policymakers need to take this into account and should look at alternative measures of inflation to un
Monetary and fiscal policy interaction in times of Next Generation EU
Could Next Generation EU enable a better coordination of monetary and fiscal policy?
Corporate insolvencies during COVID-19: keeping calm before the storm
Measures in major economies have protected companies from COVID-19 related insolvency, but have also protected weak firms. Nevertheless, support shoul
The productivity paradox: policy lessons from MICROPROD
The objective of MICROPROD, an EU-wide research project that runs until the end of 2021, is to understand what is driving the current productivity slo
Building a Euro-area Budget Inside the EU Budget: Squaring the Circle?
As part of a volume on the Multiannual Financial Framework, the EUI recently published a chapter by Grégory Claeys on the creation of a euro area budg
The evolution of European economic institutions during the COVID-19 crisis
This article discusses how the European institutions reacted and evolved during the early stages of the COVID-19 crisis in the first half of 2020.
For the euro there is no shortcut to becoming a dominant currency
As an international currency, the euro has always been a distant second to the dollar. The idea of a greater international role for the euro has been
How Can the European Parliament Better Oversee the European Central Bank?
This paper, written at the request of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs, assesses how the European Parliament holds the European Central
Bruegel Annual Meetings 2020 - Day 2
Second day of Bruegel Annual Meetings.
Bruegel Annual Meetings 1-3 September, 2020
Bruegel's flagship event transformed into a virtual conference for pandemic times
Is the EU Council agreement aligned with the Green Deal ambitions?
On 21 July, EU leaders agreed on a €1.8 trillion package that should boost the recovery after the COVID-19 crisis, but also contribute to the advancem
One last push is needed to improve the Just Transition Fund proposal
The European Parliament and the Council still have an opportunity to improve the Just Transition Fund by refocusing it on social support and basing fu
Is the COVID-19 crisis an opportunity to boost the euro as a global currency?
The euro never challenged the US dollar, and its international status declined with the euro crisis. Faced with a US administration willing to use its
A Just Transition Fund – How the EU budget can help with the transition
On 14 January 2020, the European Commission published its proposal for a Just Transition Mechanism, intended to provide support to territories facing
The European Union’s SURE plan to safeguard employment: a small step forward
The new EU instrument to mitigate unemployment risks during an emergency (SURE) is too modest to have a significant impact the COVID-19 crisis beyond
The European Central Bank in the COVID-19 crisis: whatever it takes, within its mandate
To keep the euro-area economy afloat, the European Central Bank has put in place a large number of measures since the beginning of the COVID-19 crisis
Rationale and limitations of SURE
This event will discuss SURE, a new European Union instrument for temporary ‘Support to mitigate Unemployment Risks in an Emergency'
Europe needs a Covid-19 Recovery Programme
Policymakers need to think long-term and start planning a broad investment scheme to reboot the European economy.
Facing the lower bound: what will the ECB do in the next recession?
In responding to the global financial crisis, the ECB has pushed its monetary policy into unchartered territories . Today, it appears increasingly con
COVID-19 Fiscal response: What are the options for the EU Council?
It is time for the EU Council to make quick progress on the fiscal front and announce something as soon as possible to show that it taken full measure
What should be done to reduce euro-area spreads?
Spreads are rising again in the euro-area at the worst possible time, when fiscal policy is needed to fight the coronavirus pandemic and the related e
Analysis of developments in EU capital flows in the global context
This report presents an overview of the recent trends of capital flows, focused especially on the past year. It provides a detailed analysis at the gl
How good is the European Commission’s Just Transition Fund proposal?
On 14 January 2020, the European Commission published its proposal for a Just Transition Mechanism, intended to provide support to territories facing
Berlin will make or break the European Green Deal
€1 trillion isn't enough for the European Green Deal and the EU's fiscal framework is constraining public investment. "Mrs Merkel, tear down this rule
A trillion reasons to scrutinise the Green Deal Investment Plan
The European Commission has revealed its €1 trillion investment plan for the European Green Deal. This will not be enough to unleash the expected “gre
The European Green Deal needs a reformed fiscal framework
The European Green Deal should include a sustainable investment strategy that will help citizens change behaviour and companies switch technologies. B
The next generation of digital currencies: in search of stability
Recent developments have re-opened the debate on the future of money. This Policy Contribution discusses two aspects: the implications of the rise of
Four pillars to make or break the European Green Deal
The recipe for a successful European Green Deal is as simple as it is breath-taking: to intelligently promote deep decarbonisation by accompanying the
How to make the European Green Deal work
Ursula von der Leyen has proposed a European Green Deal that would make Europe climate neutral by 2050. With this Policy Contribution, the authors pro
Challenges ahead for the European Central Bank: Navigating in the dark?
Since the second half of 2018, signs of a slowdown have been piling up in the euro area. The ECB will face major challenges in this potentially diffic
Bruegel Annual Meetings 2019
Bruegel's 2019 Annual Meetings will be held on 4-5 September and feature the launch of Bruegel's Memos to the New European Commission.
Bruegel Annual Meetings 2019, 4-5 September
The 2019 Annual Meetings featured the launch of Bruegel's memos to the new European Leadership, proposing how to deal with future policy challenges
‘Lo spread’: The collateral damage of Italy’s confrontation with the EU
The authors assess whether the European Commission's actions towards Italy since September 2018 have had a visible impact on the spread between Italia
Preparing for uncertainty
Memo to the president of the European Central Bank. Grégory Claeys, Maria Demertzis and Francesco Papadia present the challenges that the next ECB pre
The evolution of the ECB governing council's decision-making
Before it is decided who will chair the governing council for the next eight years, the authors look back and examine precisely how decisions have bee
Soaring house prices in major cities: how to spot and moderate them
This article examines whether there are regional differences in house price growth within European countries and find a stronger cyclical pattern in c
How visible are independent fiscal institutions in public debate?
Independent fiscal institutions have no formal powers to act and have to rely on soft power to influence the budgetary process. This blog post investi
Analysis of developments in EU capital flows in the global context
The monitoring and analysis of capital movements is essential for policymakers, given that capital flows can have welfare implications. This report, c
Does the Eurogroup's reform of the ESM toolkit represent real progress?
The deal reached on euro-zone reform at the December 4th Eurogroup is not ground-breaking. However, it contains a number of incremental but potentiall
A monetary policy framework for the European Central Bank to deal with uncertainty
In this Policy Contribution prepared for the European Parliament’s Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) as an input to the Monetary Dialo
The distributional effects of climate policies
The distributional consequences are likely to be a major driver of future climate policies. Policymakers will not accept forceful decarbonisation poli
Italy’s new fiscal plans: the options of the European Commission
The Italian government has announced an increase of its deficit for 2019, breaking the commitment from the previous government to decrease it to 0.8%
Should we care about central bank profits?
The authors investigate the ECB’s profit-making activity of the last 20 years, assessing how this was achieved and the reasons why we should care more
The ECB is compromising the attractiveness of euro-area sovereign bonds
The ECB should refine its collateral framework in order to continue protecting its balance sheet without putting at risk the safe-asset status of sove
What should the EU do about the Turkish currency crisis?
The Turkish lira has been under significant pressure in recent weeks; in this blog post, the authors discuss the EU’s exposure to possible crisis in T
Cryptocurrencies and monetary policy
Can cryptocurrencies acquire the role of money? And what are the implications for central banks and monetary policy? Read the policy contribution to u
Is the ECB collateral framework compromising the safe-asset status of euro-area sovereign bonds?
Central banks’ collateral frameworks play an important role in defining what is considered as a safe asset. However, the ECB’s framework is unsatisfac
Are SBBS really the safe asset the euro area is looking for?
The European Commission is pushing to create a synthetic euro-area-wide safe asset in the form of sovereign bond-backed securities (SBBS). However, SB
The Commission’s proposal for the next MFF: A glass half-full
The Commission’s proposal for the next Multiannual Financial Framework provides a good basis for subsequent negotiations and includes a number of bold
Make euro-area sovereign bonds safe again
In their recent Policy Insight, the team of French and German authors suggest introducing sovereign bond-backed securities to play the role of safe as
EU budget post 2020: the next MFF
This is a closed-door event where we will discuss the EU budget post-2020.
New EMU stabilisation tool within the MFF will have minimal impact without deeper EU budget reform
The European Commission’s proposal for a new stabilisation instrument inside the EU budget for the countries of the economic and monetary union is dis
The European Globalisation Adjustment Fund: Time for a reset
It is only in the last decade that the EU has had an active policy to reintegrate workers who lost their jobs as a result of globalisation, through th
The European Globalisation Adjustment Fund: Easing the pain from trade?
With the European Globalisation Adjustment Fund (EGF), the EU now has an instrument to help workers negatively affected by trade find new jobs. Howev
Analysis of development in EU capital flows in the global context
The monitoring and analysis of capital movements is essential for policymakers, given that capital flows can have welfare implications. This report, c
Flexicurity and labour market reforms in Europe
This event will discuss the potential of the flexicurity model as employment strategy and the way it could be implemented in European countries to be
How should the European Central Bank ‘normalise’ its monetary policy?
During the crisis, the ECB resorted to a number of unconventional monetary tools. This paper discusses how to phase out these policies and what the ‘n
The missing pieces of the euro architecture
What are the remaining fragilities of the Euro architecture? This policy contribution assesses the institutional reforms put in place during and after
Spotting excessive regional house price growth and what to do about it
Rapidly rising house prices are a well-known source of financial instability. This Policy Contribution examines whether there are regional differences
Europe and Japan: Monetary policies in the age of uncertainty
The 5th Bruegel - Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University conference will focus on monetary policy.
Bruegel Annual Meetings 2017, 7-8 September
The Annual Meetings are Bruegel’s flagship event.
Perspectives on Universal Basic Income
At this event, we discussed the possible benefits but also the possible disadvantages of Universal Basic Income.
A New Liquidity Risk Measure for the Chilean Banking Sector
This paper introduces a new metric for central banks – and in particular for the Central Bank of Chile – to measure liquidity risk in their banking se
Is the recent increase in long-term interest rates a threat to euro-area recovery?
After reaching historically low levels, European long-term sovereign yields experienced a notable rise at the end of 2016 and beginning of 2017. This
Micro- and macro-based methods in assessing the impact of investment
This workshop will discuss methods for accurately evaluating the performance of public and private investment initiatives.