Working Papers

The Western Balkan energy sector: between Russia, the European Union and the green transition

This paper analyses energy transitions in the Western Balkans, away from dependence on Russia and towards the EU electricity market

Nina Vujanović, Rouven Stubbe and Maria Catarina Louro

How resilient is Russia’s economy after four years of war?

Resilience in Russia’s 2022–25 economy is fading as war spending slows growth, entrenches inflation and amplifies structural fragilities

Marek Dabrowski

The European Union and the war in Ukraine: more money, but not more Europe

This Working Paper analyses the drivers of rearmament and especially military aid to Ukraine

Jacob Funk Kirkegaard

The challenge of AI encroachment into online search and advertising

AI-driven answers erode search engine dominance and highlight the need for new strategies to promote competition in digital markets

Bertin Martens

Shifting priorities, slow progress: an analysis of EU tax recommendations

EU tax advice has broadened to new objectives, yet uneven implementation highlights the limits of soft coordination

Roel Dom, Costanza Greppi Maturana and Pascal Saint-Amans

What will it take to stabilise debt in advanced countries?

Debt can be stabilised across advanced economies yet many face sizeable fiscal adjustments and rising vulnerability to market shifts

Zsolt Darvas, Gonzalo Huertas, Lennard Welslau and Jeromin Zettelmeyer

Understanding US foreign military sales globally since 2008: an analysis of a new dataset

The paper presents a new dataset of all US Foreign Military Sales since 2008 and analyses global trends in volumes and equipment types

Juan Mejino-López, Javier Octavio Ospital Greslebin and Guntram B. Wolff

Gender wealth inequality in the European Union: a distributional perspective

Analysis of single women and men in Europe reveals persistent gender wealth gaps and differing patterns across countries

Zsolt Darvas and Nina Ruer

Tariffs, deals and multilateral ideals: can the World Trade Organization survive?

The Trump administration’s trade policy accelerates the WTO’s decline and challenges global trade governance

Petros C. Mavroidis

The macroeconomic impact of ageing, EU immigration policy and pension expenditures

The EU faces ageing-driven fiscal strain, slower growth and rising pension costs, making employment-focused migration increasingly vital

David Pinkus and Jacob Funk Kirkegaard

European exports in geopolitical storms

With demand from US and China weakening, the EU can boost trade by focusing on other markets and strengthening global partnerships

Niclas Poitiers, Madalena Barata da Rocha and Nicolas Boivin

COVID-19’s economic impact on low-income countries: preparing for the next shock

COVID-19 hit low-income exporters hard, exposing risks from weak diversification and straining trade, supply systems and financial stability

Niclas Poitiers and Costanza Greppi Maturana

Advantages and pitfalls of green public procurement as a European strategic tool

Green public procurement supports EU climate goals but may conflict with other objectives, creating trade-offs that challenge its effectiveness

Marie-Sophie Lappe and Francesco Nicoli

Climate risks to global supply chains

Extreme weather is disrupting supply chains more often, making risk awareness, mitigation and global policy coordination increasingly vital

Madalena Barata da Rocha, Heather Grabbe and Niclas Poitiers

Migration flows from the Western Balkans to Germany: implications and recommendations

Migration to Germany is shaping the Western Balkans for better and worse, highlighting the need for reforms to harness benefits and mitigate drawbacks

Nina Ruer and Nina Vujanović

Economic development, carbon emissions and climate policies

Luca Bettarelli, Davide Furceri, Prakash Loungani, Jonathan D. Ostry and Loredana Pisano