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Monetary policy in the time of COVID-19, or how uncertainty is here to stay

The COVID-19 crisis has compounded the uncertainty that has come to characterise the European economy. We explore how this uncertainty manifests itself in terms of ECB decision-making and the long-run challenges the ECB faces.

By: and Date: November 12, 2020 Topic: European Parliament

This paper was prepared for the European Parliament’s Requested by the ECON committee. The original paper is available on the European Parliament’s webpage, as part of a series of papers on “Effects of
Pandemic-Induced
Uncertainty on
Monetary Policy” (here). Copyright remains with the European Parliament at all times.

 

The COVID-19 crisis has compounded the uncertainty that has
come to characterise the European economy. We explore how
this uncertainty manifests itself in terms of ECB decision-making
and the long-run challenges the ECB faces. Confidence in ECB
actions will come from the contingency scenarios it considers
and communicates on, and from the adoption of potential
policies for a wide range of such scenarios. Greater clarity around
the ECB’s inflation target and surrounding tolerance bands
would also be beneficial.

This document was provided by the Policy Department for
Economic, Scientific and Quality of Life Policies at the request of
the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) ahead
of the Monetary Dialogue with the ECB President on 19
November 2020.

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Upcoming Event

Nov
4
14:00

European monetary policy: lessons from the past two decades

This event will feature the presentation of “Monetary Policy in Times of Crisis – A Tale of Two Decades of the European Central Bank."

Speakers: Grégory Claeys and Wolfgang Lemke Topic: Macroeconomic policy Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels
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European governance

Pandemic prevention: avoiding another cycle of ‘panic and neglect’

Agreement is needed at international level on mechanisms to ensure better preparedness for the next pandemic.

By: Anne Bucher Topic: European governance, Global economy and trade Date: October 7, 2021
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Opinion

Letter: Declining investment may explain why rates are low

Perhaps an analysis of the causes of the declining investment rate would bring us closer to explaining why real interest rates are so low.

By: Marek Dabrowski Topic: Macroeconomic policy Date: October 1, 2021
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Opinion

What Evergrande signals about China's economic future

Under Xi Jinping's new economic agenda 'common prosperity', China is cracking down on indebted real estate developers like Evergrande.

By: Alicia García-Herrero Topic: Global economy and trade Date: September 30, 2021
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Monetary arithmetic and inflation risk

Between 2007 and 2020, the balance sheets of the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, and the Fed have all increased about sevenfold. But inflation stayed low throughout the 2010s. This was possible due to decreasing money velocity and the money multiplier. However, a continuation of asset purchasing programs by central banks involves the risk of higher inflation and fiscal dominance.

By: Marek Dabrowski Topic: Macroeconomic policy Date: September 28, 2021
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Opinion

The pandemic’s uncertain impact on productivity

The pandemic has certainly permanently affected our way of working. Whether this is for the better remains to be seen.

By: Maria Demertzis Topic: Macroeconomic policy Date: September 28, 2021
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Monetary and macroeconomic policies at the crossroads

Bruegel Annual Meetings, Day 2- In this session we would like to discuss monetary and macroeconomic policies after Covid-19.

Speakers: Grégory Claeys, Per Callesen, Gita Gopinath, Jorge Sicilia Serrano and Lawrence H. Summers Topic: Banking and capital markets Location: PALAIS DES ACADEMIES, RUE DUCALE 1 Date: September 2, 2021
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External Publication

Building the Road to Greener Pastures

How the G20 can support the recovery with sustainable local infrastructure investment.

By: Mia Hoffmann, Ben McWilliams and Niclas Poitiers Topic: Global economy and trade, Testimonies Date: July 15, 2021
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Financing for Pandemic Preparedness and Response

How can we better prepare for future pandemics? In this event, co-hosted by the Center for Global Development and Bruegel think tanks, speakers will present "A Global Deal for Our Pandemic Age", a report of the G20 High Level Independent Panel on Financing the Global Commons for Pandemic Preparedness and Response.

Speakers: Masood Ahmed, Victor J. Dzau, Amanda Glassman and Lawrence H. Summers Topic: Banking and capital markets, Global economy and trade Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels Date: July 14, 2021
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Fair vaccine access is a goal Europe cannot afford to miss – July update

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External Publication

A Global Deal for Our Pandemic Age

Report of the G20 High Level Independent Panel on Financing the Global Commons for Pandemic Preparedness and Response.

By: Tharman Shanmugaratnam, Lawrence H. Summers, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Ana Botin, Mohamed El-Erian, Jacob Frenkel, Rebeca Grynspan, Naoko Ishii, Michael Kremer, Kiran Mazumdar-Shaw, Luis Alberto Moreno, Lucrezia Reichlin, John-Arne Røttingen, Vera Songwe, Mark Suzman, Tidjane Thiam, Jean-Claude Trichet, Ngaire Woods, ZHU Min, Masood Ahmed, Guntram B. Wolff, Victor J. Dzau and Jeremy Farrar Topic: Global economy and trade Date: July 9, 2021
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