Analyses

Europe must prepare for a possible oil supply crunch

With falling commercial and emergency oil reserves, Europe’s oil price shock could soon become a volume crisis – a scenario for which it must prepare

Thomas Mramor, Alexander Roth, Simone Tagliapietra and Georg Zachmann

Hungary has room to streamline public spending without hurting growth

Cutting some state operating and economic spending to the average of its regional peers could save Hungary more than four percent of GDP

Zsolt Darvas

How to secure the benefits of an EU-wide incorporation regime

An EU Inc. plan for a common company regime should become more targeted and be underpinned by better system infrastructure

Fiona M. Scott Morton and Reinhilde Veugelers

Europe needs a strategy to close the artificial intelligence compute gap

In its bid to compete with the US on AI, Europe could learn from both China and from the classic Airbus industrial policy case

Alicia García-Herrero and Bertin Martens

Revamping Europe’s chips strategy: indispensability, not self-sufficiency

In revising the European Chips Act, the EU should seek to make itself an indispensable partner in the semiconductor value chain

Niclas Poitiers and Tillman Schenk

Understanding the global clean tech manufacturing slowdown

Benjamin Bjerkan-Wade, Hannah Hess, Marie Jugé, Ugnė Keliauskaitė, Kate Larsen, Ben McWilliams, Hannah Pitt and Simone Tagliapietra

The growing impact of political risk on financial markets

Risk associated with broad political changes can be quantified with a globally priced factor common across stocks, bonds and currencies

Vito D. Gala, Giovanni Pagliardi, Ivan Shaliastovich and Stavros Zenios

Financing the EU budget: an assessment of five proposals for new resources

Four of five new European Union budget ‘own resources’ proposed by the European Commission should go ahead with changes; the fifth should be scrapped

Zsolt Darvas and Roel Dom

Could a Hormuz toll solve the oil crisis and who pays?

With a return to the pre-Iran conflict energy status quo unlikely, a Hormuz toll may be the next best option – but Gulf states would pay the most

Guntram B. Wolff

How Europe should respond to the Iran gas shock – and how it shouldn’t

The European Union should act now to head off growing impacts from the Iran conflict on gas prices and availability

Ugnė Keliauskaitė, Ben McWilliams, Thomas Mramor, Alexander Roth, Simone Tagliapietra and Georg Zachmann

What the war in Iran means for China

China is relatively inured to the Iran conflict, but less external demand could hit its exports and its international partnerships may be undermined

Alicia García-Herrero

Dependence on fossil fuels, not on the United States, is Europe’s worry

The US has replaced Russia to a great extent as an energy supplier to the European Union, but this has not so far created a new vulnerability

Ugnė Keliauskaitė, Ben McWilliams and Georg Zachmann

European and Chinese exports kept growing despite the 2025 Trump trade shock

Diversification has kept global trade strong, despite Trump’s tariffs and accelerated US-China decoupling

Zsolt Darvas and Marie-Sophie Lappe

Europe’s emissions trading system is an ally, not an enemy, of industrial competitiveness

The 2026 review of the EU ETS must be anchored in facts and focus on the potential benefits of the system to EU competitiveness

Thomas Mramor and Simone Tagliapietra

How the global minimum tax amendments could reshape Europe’s tax incentives

This analysis offers estimates for EU countries of the possible impact of the ‘safe harbour’ update to the global minimum tax on corporate profits

Roel Dom

Has the global minimum tax survived Trump?

US objections have not killed off the 15 percent global minimum tax, but they have altered it and given the US a competitive advantage

Pascal Saint-Amans