Download publication

Policy Contribution

Low long-term rates: bond bubble or symptom of secular stagnation?

Yields on European sovereign bonds have reached historically low levels in 2016. This secular decline in long-term sovereign yields is not limited to the euro area. Why are interest rates currently so low? Are low long-term trates justified by fundamental factors or is it an artificial phenomenon?

By: and Date: September 26, 2016 Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance

Yields on European sovereign bonds have reached historically low levels in 2016. The goals of this paper are to understand why interest rates are currently so low and to determine if this level is justified by fundamental factors, or if rates are artificially low because of unconventional monetary policies.

The decline in yields over the last 30 years is the result of various factors: the fall in inflation, lower risk premia in European countries, and most importantly the fall in the real interest rate driven by a secular decline in the ‘neutral’ rate.

Consequently, central banks are not fully responsible for the actual level of long-term real rates, because they adopt, to fulfil their price stability mandates, the necessary policies to influence market rates in order to make them consistent with neutral rates, over which they have little influence.

Low rates are the symptoms of our diseases, not their cause. It is therefore crucial to tackle the structural causes behind the fall in long-term rates, but also to find solutions for the harmful consequences that lower equilibrium rates could have for the conduct of monetary policy.

Read about event More on this topic
 

Upcoming Event

Apr
13
13:00

An alpine divide? Comparing economic cultures in Germany and Italy

A discussion of Italian and German macro-economic cultures and performances.

Speakers: Thomas Mayer, Patricia Mosser, Marianne Nessén, Hiroshi Nakaso, Francesco Papadia, André Sapir and Jean-Claude Trichet Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels
Read article More on this topic
 

Blog Post

How has COVID-19 affected inflation measurement in the euro area?

COVID-19 has complicated inflation measurement. Policymakers need to take this into account and should look at alternative measures of inflation to understand what is actually happening in the economy.

By: Grégory Claeys and Lionel Guetta-Jeanrenaud Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: March 24, 2021
Read about event More on this topic
 

Past Event

Past Event

The impact of COVID-19 on productivity: preliminary firm evidence

Online event organised in the framework of MICROPROD, a research project to improve our understanding of productivity, its drivers and the way we measure it.

Speakers: Carlo Altomonte, Agnès Bénassy-Quéré, Maria Demertzis, Filippo di Mauro and Steffen Müller Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: March 18, 2021
Read article More on this topic More by this author
 

Opinion

Central banks don’t have to pick winners and losers to fight climate change

Disclosures and financial regulation don’t get enough respect as tools to reduce emissions.

By: Rebecca Christie Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation Date: March 11, 2021
Read article More on this topic More by this author
 

Opinion

外國投資者可能會放緩在中國債券市場的步伐

總體而言,誘人的息差縮小和信貸風險的上升可能會削弱此前中國債券的優勢。儘管中國仍在推動債券市場多元化,但越來越多的中國企業被實施制裁對2021年來說並不是個好兆頭。

By: Alicia García-Herrero Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: March 3, 2021
Read article More on this topic More by this author
 

Podcast

Podcast

Can central banks save the planet?

“We are not going to lead our society to a low-carbon economy by continuing to finance the status quo. “

By: The Sound of Economics Topic: Energy & Climate Date: February 24, 2021
Read article More on this topic More by this author
 

Blog Post

A brown or a green European Central Bank?

The European Central Bank portfolio is skewed towards the brown economy, reflecting a bias in the market. Can and should the bank deviate from the market allocation?

By: Dirk Schoenmaker Topic: Energy & Climate Date: February 24, 2021
Read article More on this topic More by this author
 

Opinion

Central banking’s brave new world

Ever since the 2008 financial crisis, central bankers have been busy developing new policy instruments to fight fires and ward off emerging threats. Nonetheless, many secretly dreamed of returning to the good old days of cautious conservatism (with financial stability taken seriously).

By: Jean Pisani-Ferry Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: February 24, 2021
Read article More on this topic More by this author
 

Blog Post

US separates climate concerns from financial oversight in contrast to EU activism

Different EU and US supervisory approaches to climate risk may hamper efforts to work together and risk fragmenting global markets.

By: Rebecca Christie Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation Date: February 18, 2021
Read article More on this topic More by this author
 

Blog Post

Continuing fiscal support and the risk of inflation

Ongoing fiscal support in the United States is not expected to provoke inflation risks. There are no immediate inflationary risks in the euro area either.

By: Maria Demertzis Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: February 17, 2021
Read about event
 

Past Event

Past Event

Disruption or transformation: the impact of a digital euro on the financial system

How would a digital Euro impact the financial system?

Speakers: Fabio Panetta and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance, Finance & Financial Regulation Date: February 10, 2021
Read about event More on this topic
 

Past Event

Past Event

In search of a fitting monetary policy: the ECB's strategy review

The ECB is reviewing its monetary policy strategy. How to ensure monetary policy is fit for purpose in a fast changing world?

Speakers: Maria Demertzis, Philip Lane, Reza Moghadam and Erik F. Nielsen Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels Date: January 27, 2021
Load more posts