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Policy Contribution

Low long-term rates: bond bubble or symptom of secular stagnation?

Yields on European sovereign bonds have reached historically low levels in 2016. This secular decline in long-term sovereign yields is not limited to the euro area. Why are interest rates currently so low? Are low long-term trates justified by fundamental factors or is it an artificial phenomenon?

By: and Date: September 26, 2016 Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance

Yields on European sovereign bonds have reached historically low levels in 2016. The goals of this paper are to understand why interest rates are currently so low and to determine if this level is justified by fundamental factors, or if rates are artificially low because of unconventional monetary policies.

The decline in yields over the last 30 years is the result of various factors: the fall in inflation, lower risk premia in European countries, and most importantly the fall in the real interest rate driven by a secular decline in the ‘neutral’ rate.

Consequently, central banks are not fully responsible for the actual level of long-term real rates, because they adopt, to fulfil their price stability mandates, the necessary policies to influence market rates in order to make them consistent with neutral rates, over which they have little influence.

Low rates are the symptoms of our diseases, not their cause. It is therefore crucial to tackle the structural causes behind the fall in long-term rates, but also to find solutions for the harmful consequences that lower equilibrium rates could have for the conduct of monetary policy.

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Podcast

Podcast

Can central banks save the planet?

“We are not going to lead our society to a low-carbon economy by continuing to finance the status quo. “

By: The Sound of Economics Topic: Energy & Climate Date: February 24, 2021
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Blog Post

A brown or a green European Central Bank?

The European Central Bank portfolio is skewed towards the brown economy, reflecting a bias in the market. Can and should the bank deviate from the market allocation?

By: Dirk Schoenmaker Topic: Energy & Climate Date: February 24, 2021
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Opinion

Central banking’s brave new world

Ever since the 2008 financial crisis, central bankers have been busy developing new policy instruments to fight fires and ward off emerging threats. Nonetheless, many secretly dreamed of returning to the good old days of cautious conservatism (with financial stability taken seriously).

By: Jean Pisani-Ferry Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: February 24, 2021
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Blog Post

US separates climate concerns from financial oversight in contrast to EU activism

Different EU and US supervisory approaches to climate risk may hamper efforts to work together and risk fragmenting global markets.

By: Rebecca Christie Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation Date: February 18, 2021
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Blog Post

Continuing fiscal support and the risk of inflation

Ongoing fiscal support in the United States is not expected to provoke inflation risks. There are no immediate inflationary risks in the euro area either.

By: Maria Demertzis Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: February 17, 2021
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Past Event

Past Event

Disruption or transformation: the impact of a digital euro on the financial system

How would a digital Euro impact the financial system?

Speakers: Fabio Panetta and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance, Finance & Financial Regulation Date: February 10, 2021
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Past Event

Past Event

In search of a fitting monetary policy: the ECB's strategy review

The ECB is reviewing its monetary policy strategy. How to ensure monetary policy is fit for purpose in a fast changing world?

Speakers: Maria Demertzis, Philip Lane, Reza Moghadam and Erik F. Nielsen Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels Date: January 27, 2021
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Past Event

Past Event

Monetary and fiscal policy interaction in times of Next Generation EU

Could Next Generation EU enable a better coordination of monetary and fiscal policy

Speakers: Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, Grégory Claeys and Hans Vijlbrief Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels Date: January 20, 2021
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Parliamentary Testimony

European Parliament

Monetary Policy in the times of corona: many unknown unknowns

Testimony to the European Parliament on monetary policy.

By: Maria Demertzis and Marta Domínguez-Jiménez Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance, European Parliament, Testimonies Date: December 21, 2020
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Opinion

How to minimise the impact of the coronavirus on the economy

COVID-19 is a global killer. Austerity needs to succumb.

By: Rebecca Christie Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: December 2, 2020
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Podcast

Podcast

Steering the boat towards an unknown destination

Shocks pass, but change remains a constant. We need to start focusing on permanent changes in the economy and how to adapt to them.

By: The Sound of Economics Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance, Global Economics & Governance Date: November 25, 2020
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External Publication

European Parliament

Monetary policy in the time of COVID-19, or how uncertainty is here to stay

The COVID-19 crisis has compounded the uncertainty that has come to characterise the European economy. We explore how this uncertainty manifests itself in terms of ECB decision-making and the long-run challenges the ECB faces.

By: Maria Demertzis and Marta Domínguez-Jiménez Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance, European Parliament, Testimonies Date: November 12, 2020
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