European natural gas demand tracker

Tracking monthly natural gas demand by country and the EU as a whole, with a breakdown of the power, industry and household sectors where possible

Publishing date: 10 March 2025
Authors: Marie Jugé Ben McWilliams Georg Zachmann

First published: 5 October 2022

Latest update: 10 March 2025, data up to December 2024

Please send any comments or requests to Ben McWilliams ([email protected]). Any recommendations on alternative data sources are greatly appreciated.

High and volatile European energy prices have been driven by extraordinarily tight supply-demand balances in energy markets, particularly for natural gas. The two possible solutions are to increase supply (which the EU has done, importing record volumes of LNG¹ https://www.bruegel.org/dataset/european-natural-gas-imports ) and to reduce demand. In August 2022, the European Union agreed a target to reduce gas demand by 15%² https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2022/08/05/coun… compared to the previous five-year average between August 2022 and March 2023. This target has subsequently been extended to March 2024³ https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2023/03/30/coun… , and eventually to March 2025⁴ https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2024/03/04/secu… .

This dataset tracks monthly natural gas demand by country and for the EU as a whole, with a breakdown of the power, industry, and household sectors wherever possible. Because there isn’t a timely and comprehensive data source covering all the EU, this dataset is built by compiling data from a range of sources. A technical annex explains this methodology.

Since January 2022, European natural gas demand has decreased significantly. Compared to the average across the period 2019 to 2021, European countries (the EU and UK) consumed 525 TWh less (or 11%) in 2022, 880 TWh less (or 18%) in 2023 and again 880 TWh less (or 18%) in 2024.

Figure 1 compares the total reduction in gas demand across countries since January 2022. The largest reductions have occurred in Finland, Sweden, Lithuania and the Netherlands. The smallest reductions are noted in Slovenia, Poland and Greece.

Note: The data show total reduction in gas demand across countries since January 2022.

Figure 2 displays monthly gas demand, with each year compared against average monthly demand across the 2019-2021 period. The data are presented for all countries in the EU and the United Kingdom, the interactive bar allows for selection. The second interactive bar allows for selection between total, household, industry and power demand where available.

Note: The data show monthly gas demand, with each year compared against average monthly demand across the 2019-2021 period.

Which sectors are responsible for demand reductions?

Natural gas is consumed across three economic sectors: in households for generating heat, in the power sector for generating electricity, and in the industrial sector for manufacturing products like ammonia or paper. Demand reduction for the EU across each of these sectors are shown on a monthly basis in figure 3. The interactive bar allows for selection of any EU country with available data and the United Kingdom.

In 2022, the energy crisis was exasperated by further tightness in electricity markets, particularly driven by unexpected repairs to France's fleet of nuclear reactors. This meant gas had to be saved in the household and industrial sectors. In 2023, with French nuclear reactors coming back online, and aided by record deployment of solar and wind, gas demand reductions in the power sector became substantial. In the winter of 2024/25, gas demand reductions in the power sector have again been low.

Industrial demand has been consistently depressed throughout the period and has not yet shown any signs of recovering despite falling wholesale gas prices. Household demand is more volatile. It is heavily seasonal, with larger demand in winter months, and changes in demand driven by monthly temperatures.

Note: The data show the difference between monthly gas demand and the monthly demand across the 2019-2021 period.

Is the EU on track for ambitious targets?

The EU has set a target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 55% in 2030 compared to levels in 1990. Part of this effort involves reducing demand for natural gas. Meeting the 55% target implies lowering gas demand to 2,825 TWh by 2030⁵ https://visitors-centre.jrc.ec.europa.eu/en/media/tools/energy-scenario… . In May 2022, following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the European Commission published a roadmap for reducing gas demand at a far quicker pace. This (REPowerEU) plan laid out a pathway for gas demand to fall to 1,615 TWh by 2030⁶ https://eur-lex.europa.eu/resource.html?uri=cellar:fc930f14-d7ae-11ec-a… .

The REPowerEU target is ambitious. It would imply that toward the end of the decade the EU on aggregate would be able to meet demand using only domestic production and pipeline imports (without needing any LNG). It also implies that if the necessary annual reductions were continued, the EU would not consume any natural gas by 2035.

In figure 4, we plot monthly EU natural gas demand against the linear trajectory necessary for meeting these policy targets. So far, the EU is on track for meeting the REPowerEU targets. The interactive bar allows selecting any EU country for which data are available and the United Kingdom.

Note: The data show monthly gas demand as a share of monthly demand across the 2019-2021 period against the linear trajectory necessary for meeting policy targets.

Technical annex

Demand data is compiled from a variety of sources. Use of the ENTSO-G transparency platform is prioritised where available. This is complemented by national transmission system or market operators such as Enagas, GRTGaz and THE. Austrian data is from AGGM (compiled by Johannes Schmidt and Peter Reschenhofer). Danish data is from EnergiData and United Kingdom data from the National Grid.

For power, we predominantly use Energy Charts, complemented by specific national sources where available. We receive power data as electricity consumed from gas-fired power plants and estimate the gas burn assuming a 50% power plant efficiency. Therefore, 1 MWh electricity generated from a gas-fired power plant would result in 2 MWh natural gas demand.

In cases where no alternative data are available, we use Eurostat monthly gas demand data (NRG_CB_GASM).

In cases where industry or household data are not explicitly defined, we use distribution grid demand to approximate for household demand and transmission grid demand (without power) to approximate for industry demand.

A more detailed overview of the methodology and all open-source code can be found at https://github.com/benmcwilliams/gas-demand.

About the authors

Marie Jugé

Marie works at Bruegel as a research assistant specialising in energy and climate policy. She holds a master's degree in macroeconomics and policy assessment from Université Paris Dauphine-PSL, which she completed through an apprenticeship at France Stratégie. During her time at there, she contributed to evaluating recovery plan subsidies to decarbonise the industry. In her master's thesis she investigated the reasons behind the lack of subscription to home insurance in areas exposed to natural disasters.

Marie also explores gender economics and sociology, with her bachelor’s thesis focusing on the gendered perception in French cinema. Additionally, she has a strong interest in technology, which led her to take a gap year to study at the software engineering school “42” in France.

Marie is a native French speaker, fluent in English, and has working knowledge of Spanish.
Ben McWilliams

Ben is working for Bruegel as an Affiliate fellow in the field of Energy and Climate Policy. His work involves data-driven analysis to critique and inform European public policy, specifically in the area of the energy sector and its decarbonisation. Recent work has focussed on the implications of the ongoing energy crisis and policy options for responding. Other topics of interest include tools for stimulating industrial decarbonisation and the implications for new economic geography from the advent of new energy systems, particularly from hydrogen.

He studied his MSc in Economic Policy at Utrecht University, completing a thesis investigating the economic effects of carbon taxation in British Colombia. Previously, he studied his BSc Economics at the University of Warwick, with one year spent studying at the University of Monash, Melbourne.

Ben is a dual British and Dutch citizen.
Georg Zachmann

Georg Zachmann is a Senior Fellow at Bruegel, where he has worked since 2009 on energy and climate policy. His work focuses on regional and distributional impacts of decarbonisation, the analysis and design of carbon, gas and electricity markets, and EU energy and climate policies. Previously, he worked at the German Ministry of Finance, the German Institute for Economic Research in Berlin, the energy think tank LARSEN in Paris, and the policy consultancy Berlin Economics.