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La zone euro plus menacée que jamais

Maintenant que les bons élèves de la zone euro sont eux aussi dans le collimateur des agences de notation, quelles sont les leçons à tirer ? Pour l’analyste Guntram Wolff, du centre de réflexion Bruegel, c’est la stratégie des demi-mesures qui a miné la confiance. Difficile, désormais, de convaincre : " La gouvernance de la […]

By: Date: July 30, 2012 Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance

Maintenant que les bons élèves de la zone euro sont eux aussi dans le collimateur des agences de notation, quelles sont les leçons à tirer ? Pour l’analyste Guntram Wolff, du centre de réflexion Bruegel, c’est la stratégie des demi-mesures qui a miné la confiance. Difficile, désormais, de convaincre :

" La gouvernance de la zone euro a des difficultés à rendre crédible le fait qu’elle progresse vers l’Union bancaire, vers une intégration plus forte de la zone euro. Tout cela s’accumule et au final, les investisseurs perdent confiance et commencent à vendre parce qu’ils ont peur d’avoir des pertes encore plus grandes que celles déjà subies " , explique-t-il.

Et puisqu’il apparaît de plus en plus clairement que les pays triple A, à commencer par l’Allemagne, n’ont peut-être plus les reins assez solides, pour Guntram Wolff, la solution passe par une intervention plus marquée de la Banque centrale européenne :

" Nous avons besoin d’une stimulation fiscale au niveau de la zone euro, nous avons besoin d’une politique monétaire plus souple qu’actuellement, les taux d’intérêts sont encore trop hauts. Nous avons besoin d’un assouplissement quantitatif, et nous avons besoin de stimulus conjoncturels plus forts dans la zone euro. "

En attendant, les chiffres de l’économie restent moroses et la zone euro donne des signes de récession de plus en plus marqués.


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