Belarus’ economy has survived with only limited market reforms since the end of the Soviet Union.
This was helped by injections of cash from Russia in return for strategic assets and political concessions. This model is challenged on various levels. Prices of commodities that Belarus exports have fallen, the main geographic market for manufactured goods (CIS) is in recession and the capacity of Russia to lend economic support has declined. At the same time, Belarus started serious discussions with the IMF on a program, which would involve deep structural reforms. So chances for a real economic transition in Belarus are higher than at any time in the past decade.
Presentation by Kateryna Bornukova
Presentation by Dzmitry Kruk