#Greferendum: 3 Questions, 3 Answers
Guntram Wolff replies to three questions in the aftermath of the announced results of the Greek referendum of 5 July 2015.
Q. What does the clear no in the referendum mean?
GW. First of all, it is a rejection of the creditors’ offer that was on the table one week ago. We will see new discussions now. However, it will not be easy to come to substantive discussions of a third programme. To start formal negotiations, the Bundestag and other parliaments have to agree. The political willingness for this has lessened dramatically after the no vote.
Q. Will the new deal be better or worse than the old or will we even see Grexit?
GW. Grexit is a real possibility. It would be very costly for Greece and for the entire euro area. But I would not exclude another round of negotiations during which banks remain subject to capital controls. The resulting deal may be slightly more favourable to Greece but I expect creditors to be reluctant because they really feel that they are being held to ransom.
Q. What would be the best outcome?
GW. Overall, the best outcome would be a real deal with less austerity but serious reforms in Greece. This is still possible and it would require real leadership in Greece and in other euro-area countries. Creditors should understand that generosity is in their interest because Grexit would be more costly. But creditors should not compromise on demanding structural reforms. Syriza needs to deliver a transformative programme for Greece that ensures competition, limits corruption and ensures fair taxation.
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