Working Papers
Papers with extensive research content
Working Papers present policy-relevant economic research. They normally include technical analysis, and do not have a pre-set limit on length.
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Working paper
02 July 2026
European Union capital requirements on megabanks: the low road or the high road
EU megabanks are not facing crippling US competitive pressure, making fragmentation, regulatory complexity and crisis response the real priorities
Working paper
01 July 2026
Artificial-intelligence competition in Europe: the role of DMA Article 6(7)
The DMA’s Android AI access rules could curb Google’s advantage, opening Europe’s AI market to rivals and strengthening innovation incentives
Working paper
30 June 2026
Progress made by EU candidate countries on accession-related reforms
EU accession progress broadly tracks reform, but Montenegro’s advance and North Macedonia’s stalled talks show politics still matters
Working paper
23 June 2026
To what extent can green infrastructure investment mitigate China’s clean-energy overcapacity?
China’s green industrial strategy has outpaced demand, leaving renewables firms under strain and grid expansion as the key test of market rebalancing
Working paper
11 June 2026
When oil is scarce and debt is binding: policy sequencing under a severe energy supply shock
With inflation still binding and fiscal space thin, the 2026 Iran shock revives the case for pre-committed, conditional yield anchors with clear exit
Working paper
08 June 2026
Between values and interests: drivers of EU aid
EU aid is still more poverty-focused than peers, but external policy drivers are growing and reshaping development cooperation after Global Gateway
Working paper
04 June 2026
How do trade restrictiveness and trade policy uncertainty affect FDI? An empirical investigation
Rising trade barriers and uncertainty are choking FDI inflows, hitting low and middle-income investors hardest in a fragmented global economy
Working paper
02 June 2026
Size versus allocation in capital market development: evidence from pension funds and insurance companies
EU capital markets stay small as savings sit in deposits, making insurers and pension funds pivotal if portfolios shift into productive assets
Working paper
28 May 2026
Defence innovation and procurement reform: an empirical evaluation of the US Defense Innovation Unit
The DIU has widened and deepened US defence procurement, showing innovation units can bring more commercial tech firms into military supply
Working paper
15 May 2026
Challenges to the integration of the Western Balkans into European Union supply chains
Western Balkan EU integration has deepened, yet rising non-tariff barriers and new EU rules keep trade costs high despite zero tariffs
Working paper
07 May 2026
Who controls the defence industry?
The defence industry is gaining importance in Europe, but the methods by which states exercise control over it are varied and poorly understood
Working paper
16 April 2026
The European Union’s external imbalances: past, future and policy
Europe’s rising external surplus now rivals China’s, reflecting weak investment and growing surpluses, pointing to a need for pro-investment reforms
Working paper
09 April 2026
Debt sustainability in Japan and the case for a fiscal council
Rising rates are testing Japan’s fiscal framework, with debt dynamics hinging on growth and pointing to the need for adjustment and a fiscal council
Working paper
26 March 2026
Carbon pricing beyond borders: assessing climate policy spillovers from the EU carbon border adjustment mechanism
EU CBAM is nudging trade-exposed partners towards carbon pricing, but spillovers are concentrated in high and upper middle-income countries
Working paper
18 March 2026
Investing for tomorrow: long-term investment, economic scale and the green transition
Climate mitigation investment increases with long horizons, economic scale and investor diversity, underscoring long-term capital and climate clubs
Working paper
10 March 2026
Tackling India's jobs plight: underutilised levers and lessons from China
This paper contrasts the development trajectories of these two economies and identifies several underutilised jobs-growth levers in India