Working paper

“一带一路”战略如何促进中欧贸易?

 2013年9月中国习近平主席提出“一带一路”重大倡议,得到国际社会的高度关注。虽然各界对于“一带一路”倡议的最终目标的解释层出不穷,但有一点是毋庸置疑的,那就是通过基础设施升级和贸易便利化,来加强地区间和国际间的连接性,这个巨大的地理区域涵盖了超过60个国家,约占世界人口比重的60%和全球GDP总

Publishing date
16 November 2016

这项宏伟工程的核心是强化两大重要路线的连接性,即陆路和海陆。在陆路方面,重点是能源和交通基础设施建设;在海路方面,重点是港口和新贸易航线的投资。事实上,陆运线路的终点就在欧洲,海运是目前欧洲和中国的贸易往来中最重要的方式,因此“一带一路”倡议通过大量的基础设施投资,畅通了跨境运输的瓶颈路段,会给处在“一带一路”另一端的欧洲包括欧盟国家带来重大影响。连接性的提高具有诸多好处,其中最先受惠的就是贸易。

在Alicia和徐建炜(2016)的一份研究中[1],我们阐释了“一带一路”倡议如何通过显著降低运输成本来促进贸易发展。研究结果表明,运输成本的下降的确可以促进相关国家的国际贸易发展。虽然目前“一带一路”倡议主要以建设基础设施为中心,但也有可能演变为其他方式。例如就贸易而言,最简单的方式就是消除贸易壁垒。事实上,中国政府已经开始考虑与“一带一路”国家签订自由贸易协定。由于大多数欧盟国家并不直接包含在此倡议中,它们只可能联合起来反对中国与全部欧盟国家的自由贸易协定,因此欧盟从自由贸易协定中获益的机会十分渺茫。研究通过比较“一带一路”战略实施基础设施投资和关税减免对欧洲的影响,发现后者的吸引力要小得多。总言之,如果不能及时参与中国的“一带一路”战略,欧盟将错失与中国合作强化基础设施建设的机会,结果是有可能从一个巨大的贸易区域中被剥离出来。

About the authors

  • Alicia García-Herrero

    Alicia García Herrero is a Senior fellow at Bruegel.

    She is the Chief Economist for Asia Pacific at French investment bank Natixis, based in Hong Kong and is an independent Board Member of AGEAS insurance group. Alicia also serves as a non-resident Senior fellow at the East Asian Institute (EAI) of the National University Singapore (NUS). Alicia is also Adjunct Professor at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (HKUST). Finally, Alicia is a Member of the Council of the Focused Ultrasound Foundation (FUF), a Member of the Board of the Center for Asia-Pacific Resilience and Innovation (CAPRI), a member of the Council of Advisors on Economic Affairs to the Spanish Government, a member of the Advisory Board of the Berlin-based Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) and an advisor to the Hong Kong Monetary Authority’s research arm (HKIMR).

    In previous years, Alicia held the following positions: Chief Economist for Emerging Markets at Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA), Member of the Asian Research Program at the Bank of International Settlements (BIS), Head of the International Economy Division of the Bank of Spain, Member of the Counsel to the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, Head of Emerging Economies at the Research Department at Banco Santander, and Economist at the International Monetary Fund. As regards her academic career, Alicia has served as visiting Professor at John Hopkins University (SAIS program), China Europe International Business School (CEIBS) and Carlos III University. 

    Alicia holds a PhD in Economics from George Washington University and has published extensively in refereed journals and books (see her publications in ResearchGate, Google Scholar, SSRN or REPEC). Alicia is very active in international media (such as BBC, Bloomberg, CNBC  and CNN) as well as social media (LinkedIn and Twitter). As a recognition of her thought leadership, Alicia was included in the TOP Voices in Economy and Finance by LinkedIn in 2017 and #6 Top Social Media leader by Refinitiv in 2020.

  • Jianwei Xu

    Jianwei Xu is non-resident fellow at Bruegel. He is a senior economist at Natixis, Asia Pacific. He worked as a professor at Beijing Normal University. He was also a guest researcher at China Academy of Social Science and a youth member of the China Finance Forum 40.

    His research mainly focuses on international economics and labor economics. He is particularly interested in topics related to the Chinese economy. He has published many papers in academic journals and also writes policy articles for the media.

    He received his Ph.D. in economics from China Economic Research Center, Peking University in 2011. He was also a visiting student in Stern Business School, New York University, from 2009 to 2010.

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Opinion piece

中国保增长和推改革孰轻孰重?

总体而言,全国人大会议在谈及如何确保经济高增长的目标同时,并没有真正触及国有企业改革,尤其是管理和所有权架构的改革,这便只能起到争取时间的效果,而有朝一日,真正下决心要全力推动高企改革时,未来的工作难度可能已经大大增加了。

Alicia García-Herrero