Contribution to 'Nonperforming Loans in Asia and Europe—Causes, Impacts, and Resolution Strategies' published by the Asia Development Bank.
What are the possibilities for shaping the new fiscal policy?
The effects of digital technology on work and wages.
The record-high debt levels in advanced economies increase the risk of sovereign insolvency. Governments should start fiscal consolidation soon in an environment of low nominal and real interest rates and post-COVID growth.
Technology may not have a significant negative impact on the quantity of jobs available to humans, but it certainly transforms them, changing how jobs are performed, with implications for workers’ quality of life and for productivity. Hence the focus shifts from a quantitative to a qualitative perspective.
How did Europe respond to the pandemic?
How can European countries phase out the COVID-19 support measures without having a negative impact on productivity and financial stability?
While support schemes during the pandemic were not targeted at protecting ‘good’ firms, financial support mostly went to those with the capacity to survive and succeed. Labour schemes have been effective in protecting employment.
The pandemic has disproportionately affected women both professionally and at home. Although the gender gap in labour force participation since the onset of the pandemic hasn't worsened, policy still needs to tackle existing gender gaps, which for some EU countries are very substantive.
Article published in Lancet Global Heath on strategies to end the COVID-19 pandemic in the presence of effective vaccines.
Most economic forecasts predict a return, in the medium-term, to pre-pandemic growth and inflation. Nevertheless, the European Central Bank and fiscal authorities need to be vigilant for signs of the contrary.
The G20 is not doing enough to support strong, balanced, sustainable and inclusive growth in the wake of COVID-19, with the poorest countries left behind by the recovery.