Plans for spending European Union recovery funds submitted by the four largest EU countries reflect rather different priorities. So far, only Italy is interested in borrowing from the EU.
Summary of the macro outlook based on Commission forecasts and analysis of the global picture.
Joint EU borrowing to boost the recovery, if not treated as national deficit and debt, will substantially ease rules-based fiscal adjustment needs in southern and eastern Europe, but not in western and northern Europe.
The spine of the letter represents the fall in activity at the start of the pandemic. Then there is a split, which leads to the two ‘arms’ that capture the different directions taken by economic activity in different sectors.
The EU has set ambitious goals for economic recovery: how these recovery funds are spent by member states will be critical to its success. A look into the European framework and the case of Italy.
Estimates of payments countries will receive from the Next Generation EU instrument can be made with some degree of precision. But estimating countries' repayments up to 2058 is extremely difficult.
What will happen to infrastructure financing in a post-COVID world?
A recovery from the COVID-19 recession is underway though the suffering is far from over, especially for the most vulnerable. Inequality is both a consequence of the pandemic and a cause of its severity. Many countries need comprehensive policy change to address its worst effects.
If not handled correctly, the European Union’s transition to take on a new role as an issuer of public debt risks crowding out existing markets. Managing that transition correctly is almost as big a challenge as spending the money itself.
Testimony before the European Parliament on the subject of euro area accession.
Analysing potential recovery spending and green investment through multiple dimensions.
How much cake does everyone actually get and at what speed? This blogpost estimates the yearly Next Generation EU (NGEU) payments to each EU country at current prices in euros and as a share of GNI.