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Working Paper

Measuring macroeconomic uncertainty during the euro’s lifetime’

The basic idea is that observable forecasts of macroeconomic variables are transformations of the sets of macroeconomic information, which are so complex as to be unobservable, prevailing when the forecasts are made.

By: Monika Grzegorczyk and Francesco Papadia Topic: Macroeconomic policy Date: June 20, 2022
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Opinion

China can see the limits of bailing out Russia's economy

Beijing will support Moscow as long as it does not fall foul of Western sanctions.

By: Alicia García-Herrero Topic: Global economy and trade Date: March 16, 2022
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Past Event

Past Event

An alpine divide? Comparing economic cultures in Germany and Italy

A discussion of Italian and German macro-economic cultures and performances.

Speakers: Thomas Mayer, Patricia Mosser, Marianne Nessén, Hiroshi Nakaso, Francesco Papadia, André Sapir and Jean-Claude Trichet Topic: Macroeconomic policy Date: April 13, 2021
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Blog Post

The EU’s fiscal stance, its recovery fund, and how they relate to the fiscal rules

Joint EU borrowing to boost the recovery, if not treated as national deficit and debt, will substantially ease rules-based fiscal adjustment needs in southern and eastern Europe, but not in western and northern Europe.

By: Zsolt Darvas and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: Macroeconomic policy Date: March 4, 2021
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Policy Contribution

China’s state-owned enterprises and competitive neutrality

The concept of competitive neutrality can be used to assess how far a market is from being a competitive environment. In China, competitive neutrality is lacking, with state-owned firms favoured in most sectors, even over Chinese private firms.

By: Alicia García-Herrero and Gary Ng Topic: Global economy and trade Date: February 23, 2021
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Past Event

Past Event

The role of the IMF in the post-COVID-19 fiscal stabilization and recovery

Fireside chat with Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director, International Monetary Fund

Speakers: Henri de Castries, Kristalina Georgieva, Vazil Hudák, Robert Vass and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: Global economy and trade Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels Date: June 15, 2020
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Opinion

Covid-19 and emerging economies: What to expect in the short- and medium-term

This article was originally published in the Observer Research Foundation. As Brazil, Russia, India and Mexico record the fast spread of the Covid-19 contagion, a third wave of the pandemic is reaching the emerging world. As a result, business sentiment has decreased in March and April in the region. What’s more, as emerging economies gradually […]

By: Alicia García-Herrero Topic: Global economy and trade Date: June 3, 2020
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Policy Contribution

COVID-19’s reality shock for external-funding dependent emerging economies

COVID-19 is by far the biggest challenge policymakers in emerging economies have had to deal with in recent history. Beyond the potentially large negative impact on these countries’ fiscal accounts, and the related solvency issues, worsening conditions for these countries’ external funding are a major challenge.

By: Alicia García-Herrero and Elina Ribakova Topic: Banking and capital markets, Global economy and trade Date: May 28, 2020
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Past Event

Past Event

A European response to the coronavirus crisis with Paolo Gentiloni

This is the second event in our series with the Financial Times, where Paolo Gentiloni will discuss the European response to the coronavirus crisis.

Speakers: Paolo Gentiloni, Mehreen Khan and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: Macroeconomic policy Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels Date: April 6, 2020
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Blog Post

Be bold now: coronavirus, the Eurogroup and fiscal safety nets

This blog post sketches two scenarios: one in which countries provide a large fiscal safety net to companies and another in which they do not. Both lead to similar debt-to-GDP ratios in 2021, but the safety net leads to a smaller and shorter recession and a quicker rebound. We then discuss how to fund a large response without fragmenting the euro area. Until the lockdowns end, such measures should be implemented.

By: Guntram B. Wolff and Bruegel Topic: Macroeconomic policy Date: March 17, 2020
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Policy Contribution

An effective economic response to the Coronavirus in Europe

'Whatever it takes' needs to be the motto to preserve lives and reduce the impact on the economy of the epidemic.

By: Maria Demertzis, André Sapir, Simone Tagliapietra and Guntram B. Wolff Topic: Macroeconomic policy, Testimonies Date: March 12, 2020
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Opinion

What if the rest of Europe follows Italy's coronavirus fate?

The silence from Brussels could be as damaging as the silence on Italian streets

By: Simone Tagliapietra and Bruegel Topic: Global economy and trade Date: March 11, 2020