Blog Post
Expected increases in interest rates and reductions in real GDP growth rates will result in relatively small increases in public debt-to-GDP ratios, but inflation will reduce debt ratios very substantially
Blog Post
The European Central Bank needs a new tool to prevent the current rise in spreads, triggered by monetary policy tightening, from escalating into a new euro-area crisis.
Policy Contribution
The post-pandemic new normal is sure to differ both from the pre-pandemic normal and from current arrangements. Hybrid arrangements in which part of the week is spent at the office, and part at home, are likely to become the norm.
External Publication
The ECB should design a specific tool that will accompany interest rate hikes to neutralise the risk of fragmentation directly for countries facing it, staying within the bounds of the EU treaties and ensuring political legitimacy. We also advocate structural changes to the ECB’s collateral framework to avoid unnecessary uncertainty surrounding the safe asset status of European sovereign bonds.
Opinion
Even though inflation in the euro area is lower than in the US, three issues make it a lot more difficult for the ECB to control inflation and preserve financial stability. Once again, the limits of EMU architecture are visible and will require a rethink.
Podcast
What are the implications of prolonged inflation?
Past Event
What are the vulnerabilities and risks in the enterprise sector and how prepared are countries to handle a large-scale restructuring of businesses?
Past Event
How is monetary policy evolving in the face of recent crises? With central banks taking on new roles, how accountable are they to democratic institutions?
Podcast
What does zero-COVID mean for both China and the global economy?
Past Event
ECB Executive Board Member Philip Lane discusses the outlook for Euro area economies.
Policy Contribution
Policymakers must think coherently about the joint implications of their actions, from sanctions on Russia to subsidies and transfers to their own citizens, and avoid taking measures that contradict each other. This is what we try to do in this Policy Contribution, focusing on the macroeconomic aspects of relevance for Europe.
Past Event
How have events in recent years impacted global trade and value chains and how can we strengthen these against future disruptions?