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Blog Post

Monetary arithmetic and inflation risk

Between 2007 and 2020, the balance sheets of the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, and the Fed have all increased about sevenfold. But inflation stayed low throughout the 2010s. This was possible due to decreasing money velocity and the money multiplier. However, a continuation of asset purchasing programs by central banks involves the risk of higher inflation and fiscal dominance.

By: Marek Dabrowski Topic: Macroeconomic policy Date: September 28, 2021
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Blog Post

How has COVID-19 affected inflation measurement in the euro area?

COVID-19 has complicated inflation measurement. Policymakers need to take this into account and should look at alternative measures of inflation to understand what is actually happening in the economy.

By: Grégory Claeys and Lionel Guetta-Jeanrenaud Topic: Macroeconomic policy Date: March 24, 2021
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Past Event

Past Event

The impact of COVID-19 on productivity: preliminary firm evidence

Online event organised in the framework of MICROPROD, a research project to improve our understanding of productivity, its drivers and the way we measure it.

Speakers: Carlo Altomonte, Agnès Bénassy-Quéré, Maria Demertzis, Filippo di Mauro and Steffen Müller Topic: Macroeconomic policy Date: March 18, 2021
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Blog Post

Continuing fiscal support and the risk of inflation

Ongoing fiscal support in the United States is not expected to provoke inflation risks. There are no immediate inflationary risks in the euro area either.

By: Maria Demertzis Topic: Macroeconomic policy Date: February 17, 2021
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Past Event

Past Event

In search of a fitting monetary policy: the ECB's strategy review

The ECB is reviewing its monetary policy strategy. How to ensure monetary policy is fit for purpose in a fast changing world?

Speakers: Maria Demertzis, Philip Lane, Reza Moghadam and Erik F. Nielsen Topic: Macroeconomic policy Location: Bruegel, Rue de la Charité 33, 1210 Brussels Date: January 27, 2021
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Opinion

China's yuan nowhere near cracking US dollar hegemony

For all Beijing's ambitions of cracking the hegemony of the US dollar in the face of Trump administration sanctions, the yuan still has a long way to go.

By: Alicia García-Herrero Topic: Global economy and trade Date: October 30, 2020
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Opinion

Reading tea leaves from China’s two sessions: Large monetary and fiscal stimulus and still no growth guarantee

The announcement of a large stimulus without a growth target indicates that China’s recovery is far from complete.

By: Alicia García-Herrero Topic: Global economy and trade Date: May 25, 2020
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Policy Contribution

European Parliament

The European Central Bank in the COVID-19 crisis: whatever it takes, within its mandate

To keep the euro-area economy afloat, the European Central Bank has put in place a large number of measures since the beginning of the COVID-19 crisis. This response has triggered fears of a future increase in inflation. However, the ECB's new measures and the resulting increase in the size of its balance sheet, even if it were to be permanent, should not restrict its ability to achieve its price-stability mandate, within its legal obligations.

By: Grégory Claeys Topic: European Parliament, Macroeconomic policy, Testimonies Date: May 20, 2020
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Opinion

Depression, and not stagflation, could haunt China in 2020

This opinion piece was originally published in Asia Times and Medium China’s GDP in the first quarter of the year has surprised nobody but the devil is in the details. Local retail sales continued to fall in March (-16%), marginally better than during the peak of the Covid19 outbreak in January and February. The continuation […]

By: Alicia García-Herrero Topic: Global economy and trade Date: April 17, 2020
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Blog Post

The case for a derivative market programme

The implementation of a Derivative Market Programme could reaffirm the ECB’s credibility and strong commitment to price stability.

By: Sybrand Brekelmans, Francesco Papadia and Bruegel Topic: Banking and capital markets Date: March 18, 2020
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Blog Post

Inflation targets: revising the European Central Bank’s monetary framework

The ECB is looking to evaluate whether its definition of price stability is effective in helping anchor inflation expectations. We argue that the current definition does not make for a very good focal point. To become a focal point the ECB needs to do two things. Price stability should be defined as inflation at 2 percent,. Remove therefore the unnecessary ambiguity of "below but close to 2 percent". But that is not enough. Around that 2 percent, the ECB should say which levels of inflation it is prepared to tolerate. There need to be explicit bands defined around that 2 percent to provide a framework for economic agents to evaluate Central Bank performance. And as the ECB will have to operate under high levels fo uncertainty these bands need to be wider than tolerance of inflation between 1 and 3 percent, which is what many inflation targeting Central Banks have tolerated over the years.

By: Maria Demertzis and Nicola Viegi Topic: Macroeconomic policy Date: February 20, 2020
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Opinion

Watch out for China’s currency in case of no-deal scenario

The U.S. and China’s negotiations on a phase-one deal seem to have stalled again. The market was already aware of the limited nature of the likely deal, but was still hoping for it. Against this backdrop, the investors have reacted negatively to the increased likelihood of not reaching a deal on December 15. If this is the case, the U.S. will apply additional tariffs on Chinese imports. The obvious question to address, thus, is, what can happen to China under such a scenario?

By: Alicia García-Herrero Topic: Banking and capital markets Date: December 11, 2019