Expected increases in interest rates and reductions in real GDP growth rates will result in relatively small increases in public debt-to-GDP ratios, but inflation will reduce debt ratios very substantially
The EU Platform could become an effective emergency tool to safeguard Europe’s security of gas supply in case of a sudden interruption of Russian gas flows, but policymakers need to address challenges to make it work.
The ECB should design a specific tool that will accompany interest rate hikes to neutralise the risk of fragmentation directly for countries facing it, staying within the bounds of the EU treaties and ensuring political legitimacy. We also advocate structural changes to the ECB’s collateral framework to avoid unnecessary uncertainty surrounding the safe asset status of European sovereign bonds.
Food and fertiliser export restrictions are exacerbating the current food price crisis. The WTO and EU legal toolkits provide some safeguards but are insufficient. Unblocking Ukrainian ports and facilitating wheat exports through large-scale international coordination remains essential.
The mystery of China-Russia economic relations in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and what it means for Europe.
A timely reflection on the EU’s latest round of sanctions banning Russian oil imports.
Even though inflation in the euro area is lower than in the US, three issues make it a lot more difficult for the ECB to control inflation and preserve financial stability. Once again, the limits of EMU architecture are visible and will require a rethink.
What are the implications of prolonged inflation?
The EU lacks the coordination structure and transparent data necessary to most effectively navigate an embargo on Russian oil.
The idea of confiscating the Bank of Russia’s frozen reserves is attractive to some, but at this stage in the Ukraine conflict confiscation would be counterproductive and likely illegal.
How is monetary policy evolving in the face of recent crises? With central banks taking on new roles, how accountable are they to democratic institutions?
Even at this late hour, the European Union should consider taking a different path.