Expected increases in interest rates and reductions in real GDP growth rates will result in relatively small increases in public debt-to-GDP ratios, but inflation will reduce debt ratios very substantially
The ECB should design a specific tool that will accompany interest rate hikes to neutralise the risk of fragmentation directly for countries facing it, staying within the bounds of the EU treaties and ensuring political legitimacy. We also advocate structural changes to the ECB’s collateral framework to avoid unnecessary uncertainty surrounding the safe asset status of European sovereign bonds.
Even though inflation in the euro area is lower than in the US, three issues make it a lot more difficult for the ECB to control inflation and preserve financial stability. Once again, the limits of EMU architecture are visible and will require a rethink.
What are the implications of prolonged inflation?
Major economies are addressing the challenges brought by digital trade in different ways, resulting in diverging regulatory regimes. How should we view these divergences and best deal with them?
How is monetary policy evolving in the face of recent crises? With central banks taking on new roles, how accountable are they to democratic institutions?
A conversation on the global trading landscape.
Although Russia bears the brunt of Western high-tech sanctions, the European Union will face challenges in sectors where it relies on Russian and Ukrainian commodities and technologies.
Global food production will be sufficient to feed the global population this year. But export bans, high prices and increasing transport cost might prevent vulnerable countries from procuring sufficient food supplies. Measures to ensure global access to scarcer food supplies and to boost grain production are warranted.
The events that have unfolded since 24 February have solved one dispute: inflation is no longer temporary.
The EU is still Russia’s largest trading partner, actually several times bigger than China.
Only companies investing in advanced semiconductors will see their margins increase.