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Working Paper

Forecasting exchange rates of major currencies with long maturity forward rates

This paper presents unprecedented exchange rate forecasting results based upon a new model which approximates the gap between the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate and the actual exchange rate with the long-maturity forward exchange rate.

By: Zsolt Darvas and Zoltán Schepp Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: April 2, 2020
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Opinion

EU policy recommendations: A stronger legal framework is not enough to foster national compliance

In 2011, the EU introduced stricter rules to monitor the implementation of country-specific policy recommendations. Using a new dataset, this column investigates whether these new laws have increased national compliance. There is no evidence that these stricter processes matter for implementation rates, whereas macroeconomic fundamentals and market pressure are important determinants of implementation progress. These results suggest ways to improve the effectiveness of European policy coordination that go beyond stronger legal processes.

By: Konstantinos Efstathiou, Guntram B. Wolff and Bruegel Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: July 23, 2019
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Blog Post

The breakdown of the covered interest rate parity condition

A textbook condition of international finance breaks down. Economic research identifies the interplay between divergent monetary policies and new financial regulation as the source of the puzzle, and generates concerns about unintended consequences for financing conditions and financial stability.

By: Konstantinos Efstathiou and Bruegel Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation Date: July 1, 2019
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Blog Post

Big Macs in big countries: an update on euro area adjustment

Have prices moved in the direction of correcting real exchange rate misalignments everywhere in the euro area in recent years? Not between the largest euro-area economies, i.e. France, Germany and Italy, says evidence from the Big Mac index. However, latest trends may be working in the right direction in these countries too.

By: Konstantinos Efstathiou and Bruegel Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: September 20, 2018
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Blog Post

The exchange rate and inflation in the euro-area: words following facts

The reduced references in the speeches of the President and Vice-president of the ECB to exchange rate changes in assessing inflation developments correspond to a decreased pass-through from the exchange rate to inflation. So, as it should be, words have followed facts

By: Francesco Papadia Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: February 16, 2018
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Blog Post

Latest data shows developing trends in the European Central Bank’s refinancing operations

The stock of liquidity supplied through the ECB’s open market operations has remained relatively stable, though there is a clearer change in the country composition.

By: Konstantinos Efstathiou and Bruegel Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance, Finance & Financial Regulation Date: December 12, 2017
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Blog Post

Phillips vs. Pass-through, or the changing ECB understanding of inflation

This blog post looks at how the approach of the ECB to inflation has changed over the years. It shows the ECB has moved, over the years, from a small towards a large country approach, giving more weight to the improving employment conditions than to the appreciating exchange rate in deciding its monetary policy moves.

By: Francesco Papadia and Alessandra Marcelletti Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: October 25, 2017
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Blog Post

An update: sovereign bond holdings in the euro area – the impact of quantitative easing

Since the European Central Bank’s announcement in January 2015 of its quantitative easing programme, national central banks have been buying government and national agency bonds. In this post we look at the effect of QE on sectoral holdings of government bonds, updating calculations that we published initially in May 2016.

By: Pia Hüttl and David Pichler Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: October 10, 2017
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Opinion

Hong Kong should add the euro to its dollar peg

Volatility offers an opportunity for the territory to rethink its strategy. With the economy now more synchronised with China than ever before, the dollar peg may no longer provide an accurate reflection of the real value of the Hong Kong dollar.

By: Alicia García-Herrero Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: September 12, 2017
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Blog Post

The international effects of ECB’s monetary policy

What’s at stake: the literature on monetary policy spillovers is abundant of studies investigating the impact of the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy announcements and actions on emerging market economies. More recently, economists have been investigating the effect of the ECB’s credit easing as well.

By: Silvia Merler and Bruegel Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: July 24, 2017
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Blog Post

An update: Sovereign bond holdings in the euro area – the impact of QE

Since the ECB’s announcement of its QE programme in January 2015, national central banks have been buying government and national agency bonds. In this post we look at the effect of QE on sectoral holdings of government bonds, updating our calculations published in May and November 2016.

By: Pia Hüttl, Inês Goncalves Raposo and Bruegel Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: March 9, 2017
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Blog Post

The Italian Lira: the exchange rate and employment in the ERM

In the decades before Italy joined the Euro, the Lira was devalued many times relative to the Deutschmark. Were these re-alignments accompanied by long term improvements on the labour market? The data suggests this was not the case.

By: Bruegel, Maria Demertzis, Konstantinos Efstathiou and Fabio Matera Topic: European Macroeconomics & Governance Date: January 13, 2017