Blog Post
Expected increases in interest rates and reductions in real GDP growth rates will result in relatively small increases in public debt-to-GDP ratios, but inflation will reduce debt ratios very substantially
Blog Post
Crucial decisions about whether a country can join the euro area depend on questionable discretionary decisions.
Working Paper
Using various micro datasets, Work Package 5 of the MICROPROD project made significant contributions to our understanding of the distributive implications of trade and technological change.
Blog Post
Hosting Ukrainian refugees could cost European Union countries in excess of €40 billion this year. A dedicated EU fund is needed to manage the fiscal burden.
External Publication
In-depth analysis on the banking supervision cooperation in Bulgaria and Croatia prepared for the European Parliament's Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON).
Opinion
The EU’s ambitious emissions reduction targets will require a major increase in green investments. This column considers options for increasing public green investment when major consolidations are needed after the fiscal support provided during the pandemic. The authors make the case for a green golden rule allowing green investment to be funded by deficits that would not count in the fiscal rules. Concerns about ‘greenwashing’ could be addressed through a narrow definition of green investments and strong institutional scrutiny, while countries with debt sustainability concerns could initially rely only on NGEU for their green investment.
Blog Post
Adjustments to growth forecasts mean some countries will get 10% more than expected and others 20% less in grants from the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility. But the benefits of more quickly rising growth rates dwarf foregone recovery funds.
Blog Post
Identical European Commission assessments that EU countries’ recovery plan cost justifications are ‘medium-quality’ undermine trust in the assessments and raise questions about whether recovery money will be well spent.
Blog Post
Spending and borrowing via a non-redistributive EU climate fund or under a well-designed green golden rule would result in similar project implementation and be treated the same in the EU’s fiscal framework.
Working Paper
This paper contributes to the measurement of monthly consumer price index-based real effective exchange rates with two main novelties.