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Opinion

Letter: Declining investment may explain why rates are low

Perhaps an analysis of the causes of the declining investment rate would bring us closer to explaining why real interest rates are so low.

By: Marek Dabrowski Topic: Macroeconomic policy Date: October 1, 2021
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Blog Post

Monetary arithmetic and inflation risk

Between 2007 and 2020, the balance sheets of the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, and the Fed have all increased about sevenfold. But inflation stayed low throughout the 2010s. This was possible due to decreasing money velocity and the money multiplier. However, a continuation of asset purchasing programs by central banks involves the risk of higher inflation and fiscal dominance.

By: Marek Dabrowski Topic: Macroeconomic policy Date: September 28, 2021
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Blog Post

The socio-economic consequences of COVID-19 in the Middle East and North Africa

Confronted with COVID-19, high-income Gulf countries have done better than most of their middle- and low-income neighbours; Jordan and Morocco are also positive exceptions.

By: Marek Dabrowski and Marta Domínguez-Jiménez Topic: Global economy and trade Date: June 14, 2021
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Opinion

Is a dollar crash coming?

Even if a sovereign debt crisis is avoided, the public debt burden will negatively impact growth.

By: Marek Dabrowski Topic: Global economy and trade Date: February 9, 2021
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Policy Contribution

Economic Crisis in the Middle East and North Africa

In the 2010s, the economic outlook of the countries in the Middle East and North Africa region deteriorated, with numerous long-term socio-economic and institutional challenges still unresolved. COVID-19 has compounded the problems. As the region's largest external trading partner, the European Union should do more to support economic and political transformation.

By: Marek Dabrowski and Marta Domínguez-Jiménez Topic: Global economy and trade Date: January 21, 2021
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Blog Post

Emerging market central banks and quantitative easing: high-risk advice

Central banks in emerging markets with weak currencies should not resort to unorthodox monetary tools such as quantitative easing as a response to the crisis triggered by COVID-19. Preferable alternatives include shifting public spending away from less pressing needs, moderately increasing public debt and falling back on official development assistance.

By: Marek Dabrowski and Marta Domínguez-Jiménez Topic: Global economy and trade Date: August 26, 2020
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Blog Post

Ukraine: trade reorientation from Russia to the EU

Over the past five years conflict has led to a deterioration of Russo-Ukrainian economic relations while ties with the EU have been deepened. This shift is evident in trade flows: the European Union has become Ukraine’s biggest trading partner, while China is poised to overtake Russia as its second. Natural gas imports from Russia, Ukraine’s prior Achilles heel, have been partially replaced by reverse deliveries from the EU and reduced as result of reform of the gas sector.

By: Marek Dabrowski, Marta Domínguez-Jiménez and Georg Zachmann Topic: Macroeconomic policy Date: July 13, 2020
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Policy Contribution

Six years after Ukraine’s Euromaidan: reforms and challenges ahead

Since the Euromaidan protests (2013-2014), Ukraine has had two presidents and four governments. In a difficult environment of external aggression, they have initiated various reforms aimed at bringing the country closer to the European Union and boosting growth. Progress has been partial and relies on international backing, with limited domestic appetite for reform.

By: Marek Dabrowski, Marta Domínguez-Jiménez and Georg Zachmann Topic: Macroeconomic policy Date: June 30, 2020
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Blog Post

Is COVID-19 triggering a new emerging-market crisis?

Emerging economies have received little attention in the economic debate regarding the COVID-19 pandemic, yet the performance of their primary market indicators, chiefly sovereign debt, foreign exchange and equities, indicate a deep deterioration is taking place. Times of crisis often lead to capital flight from emerging markets as investors seek safe haven assets, while the localised effects of the disease and the collapse in the price of certain key commodities have also been damaging. More worryingly, this appears to be the beginning of the storm, and emerging economies have far less room for fiscal and monetary manoeuvring.

By: Marek Dabrowski and Marta Domínguez-Jiménez Topic: Global economy and trade Date: March 30, 2020
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Opinion

Can the EU overcome its enlargement impasse?

The ‘new enlargement methodology’ may help overcome the impasse triggered by the inability of the European Council to open accession negotiations with North Macedonia and Albania

By: Marek Dabrowski Topic: Global economy and trade Date: February 27, 2020
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External Publication

Factors determining Russia’s long-term growth rate

This paper’s main conclusion is that Russia’s economy cannot grow at the pace recorded in the early and mid-2000s because of the different external environment, the different stage of development and serious demographic headwinds.

By: Marek Dabrowski Topic: Global economy and trade Date: January 16, 2020