Opinion

Credible emerging market central banks could embrace quantitative easing to fight COVID-19

Emerging economies are fighting COVID-19 and the economic sudden stop imposed by the containment and lockdown policies, in the same way as advanced economies. However, emerging markets also face large and rapid capital outflows as a result of the pandemic. This column argues that credible emerging market central banks could rely on purchases of local currency government bonds to support the needed health and welfare expenditures and fiscal stimulus. In countries with flexible exchange rate regimes and well-anchored inflation expectations, such quantitative easing would help ease financial conditions, while minimising the risks of large depreciations and spiralling inflation.

By: Gianluca Benigno, Jon Hartley, Alicia García-Herrero, Alessandro Rebucci and Elina Ribakova Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: July 6, 2020

Opinion

Toward a smart Indian response to China

Rather than risking its soldiers' lives on the border, India should join 'middle power' economic coalitions to address China's behavior.

By: Suman Bery and Alicia García-Herrero Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: June 23, 2020

External Publication

EU-China trade and investment relations in challenging times

In this report, we have focused on trade and investment relations and have not attempted to define the many other policy instruments that the EU can and should pursue to increase its leverage towards China, and to protect its domestic economy while boosting domestic investment and trade.

By: Alicia García-Herrero, Guntram B. Wolff, Jianwei Xu, Niclas Poitiers, Gabriel Felbermayr, Rolf J. Langhammer, Wan-Hsin Liu and Alexander Sandkamp Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: June 4, 2020

Opinion

Covid-19 and emerging economies: What to expect in the short- and medium-term

This article was originally published in the Observer Research Foundation. As Brazil, Russia, India and Mexico record the fast spread of the Covid-19 contagion, a third wave of the pandemic is reaching the emerging world. As a result, business sentiment has decreased in March and April in the region. What’s more, as emerging economies gradually […]

By: Alicia García-Herrero Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: June 3, 2020

Policy Contribution

COVID-19’s reality shock for external-funding dependent emerging economies

COVID-19 is by far the biggest challenge policymakers in emerging economies have had to deal with in recent history. Beyond the potentially large negative impact on these countries’ fiscal accounts, and the related solvency issues, worsening conditions for these countries’ external funding are a major challenge.

By: Alicia García-Herrero and Elina Ribakova Topic: Finance & Financial Regulation, Global Economics & Governance Date: May 28, 2020

Opinion

Reading tea leaves from China’s two sessions: Large monetary and fiscal stimulus and still no growth guarantee

The announcement of a large stimulus without a growth target indicates that China’s recovery is far from complete.

By: Alicia García-Herrero Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: May 25, 2020

External Publication

Covid19 and emerging economies

What to expect in the short and medium term? Covid-19 will consequently push for a quick reshuffling of the global value chain away from the emerging world.

By: Alicia García-Herrero Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: May 13, 2020

Opinion

Depression, and not stagflation, could haunt China in 2020

This opinion piece was originally published in Asia Times and Medium China’s GDP in the first quarter of the year has surprised nobody but the devil is in the details. Local retail sales continued to fall in March (-16%), marginally better than during the peak of the Covid19 outbreak in January and February. The continuation […]

By: Alicia García-Herrero Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: April 17, 2020

Opinion

Why are some stock markets in Asia less affected by coronavirus?

While Asian markets are in a sea of red, mainland China, New Zealand, Hong Kong and Taiwan are all defying the gravity.

By: Alicia García-Herrero and Gary Ng Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: March 31, 2020

Opinion

From G7 to G20: passing three hot potatoes

Yesterday’s G7 video-conference ended in silence. It wasn’t even possible for the group to issue a joint statement after the US administration's push to enter into a blame game over the Covid-19 label. However, let’s not give up. There is one more chance today for global coordination: the G20 emergency video-conference hosted by Saudi Arabia. This is the opportunity for the G20 to stand out and overshadow the G7 and for the world to end up with some international policy coordination. The key issues continue to be dollar liquidity, excessive dollar appreciation and plummeting oil prices.

By: Alicia García-Herrero Topic: Global Economics & Governance Date: March 26, 2020