Progress made by EU candidate countries on accession-related reforms

The European Union enlargement process is both politically driven and merit-based. Politically, the process is driven by the determination of a candidate country to join the EU, and the willingness of incumbent EU countries to let it in. In terms of merit, becoming an EU member requires adopting the EU acquis communautaire – the accumulated body of EU law – codified in 35 negotiation chapters and grouped into six thematic clusters.

This paper analyses the progress made by EU candidate countries on accession-related reforms using a novel method involving the quantification of the European Commission’s annual qualitative assessment of countries’ preparedness. The results of our analysis are contrasted with the actual status of accession negotiations for each country.

To some extent, progress in accession negotiations is tracking progress in acquis adoption. This is especially visible for Montenegro, the most advanced EU candidate in terms of reform. Montenegro could complete accession negotiations in 2026 or early 2027. However, there are also opposite examples where, despite good reform scores, negotiations have stalled, as in the case of North Macedonia.

The authors would like to thank Heather Grabbe and Nina Vujanović for their comments and suggestions on an earlier draft of this Working Paper.

This Working Paper was produced with financial support from The Open Society Foundations Western Balkans.