Migration flows from the Western Balkans to Germany: implications and recommendations

Migration to Germany is shaping the Western Balkans for better and worse, highlighting the need for reforms to harness benefits and mitigate drawbacks

Publishing date: 18 September 2025
Authors: Nina Ruer Nina Vujanović

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Migration has long shaped the demographic and economic realities of the Western Balkans, with Germany emerging as the primary destination for emigration. Since the 1990s, persistent emigration, combined with negative natural population growth, has led to significant population declines in Western Balkan countries, raising concerns about the region’s development. Yet this migration also generates economic benefits for origin countries, notably through remittances, trade, foreign direct investment (FDI) and diaspora networks.

This Working Paper analyses the most recent migration wave to Germany, sparked by Germany’s 2015 Western Balkan Regulation (WBR) which facilitated labour flows from the region to Germany. While the benefits of the WBR for Germany are evident, the consequences for the Western Balkans have been mixed. Outflows are particularly significant in sectors vital for development, including healthcare, manufacturing and construction. Remittances remain important as support for household consumption, while trade and FDI links with Germany have deepened.

Numerous factors motivate people to leave the region, from poor labour market outcomes to less welfare support and mistrust of institutions. Germany, meanwhile, has strong pull factors, including higher wages, stronger welfare systems, better education and more attractive career prospects in the German labour force.

The true challenge for the Western Balkans, therefore, is to manage the phenomenon in ways that are conducive, rather than damaging, to its development. Reforms in the areas of employment, education and the rule of law can reduce the compulsion to leave. Meanwhile, rising cross-border capital flows between Germany and the region, together with reverse knowledge spillovers from the diaspora and possible return migration, can turn labour mobility into a source of growth.

This Working Paper was produced with financial support from The Open Society Foundations Western Balkans.

The authors thank Marek Dabrowski, Maria Catarina Louro, Heather Grabbe, Hans Geeroms, Zsolt Darvas and Francesco Papadia for their valuable comments.

About the authors

Nina Ruer

Nina worked at Bruegel as a Research Analyst. She holds a master's of research (MRes) in Analysis and Policy in Economics from the Paris School of Economics (PSE). Her master's thesis, titled "The Gender Pay Gap in Student Employment in France," was a comprehensive study that delved into income disparities among university students in France. Prior to that, she earned a BSc in Economics with a final year in "Magistère" from Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne.

Prior to joining Bruegel, she was a research assistant on a series of projects funded by PSE where she gained hands-on experience in finding and cleaning replication datasets for Randomized Control Trials (RCTs). She also developed multiple surrogate index functions for long-term forecasting. Another set of projects focused on collecting subjective forecasts, where she assessed the calibration of various groups for forecast accuracy.

Nina is a dual Dutch and French citizen and is a French native speaker, fluent in Dutch and English.
Nina Vujanović

Nina Vujanović joined Bruegel in February 2025 to work as an Affiliate Fellow on the economic implications of the EU accession process. Her expertise includes micro-research of innovation, productivity, FDI and trade, whilst she also investigated topics in macroeconomics, green and digital transition. Previously, she worked in the central bank, Vienna Institute for International Economics Studies and UNCTAD and consulted the World Bank and European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.

She obtained MSc in Economic Policy from University College London and PhD in Economics from Staffordshire University. Her PhD thesis was completed at WTO as part of the awarded scholarship programme and marked with distinction.