COVID-19 almost one year on, it is time to assess who passed the test, and who failed.
For all Beijing's ambitions of cracking the hegemony of the US dollar in the face of Trump administration sanctions, the yuan still has a long way to go.
An attempt merely to restore the pre-Trump status quo would fail to address major challenges; the task ahead is one of rebuilding, rather than repair. It should start with a clear identification of the problems that the international system must tackle.
With the US presidential elections around the corner we asked ourselves: what would a Biden administration look like? And what would a(nother) Trump administration look like?
What shape will the trade relationship between the EU and the US take in the coming years?
A Joe Biden Administration would have to decide to what extent to unpick the major United States trade policy shifts of the last four years. A quick return to comprehensive trade talks with the European Union is unlikely and the US will remain focused on its rivalry with China. Nevertheless, there would be areas for EU/US cooperation, not least World Trade Organisation reform.
If Donald Trump loses the United States presidential election in November, he will ultimately be seen to have left little mark in many areas. But in the US's relationship with China, the decoupling of economic links could continue, and that could force Europe into hard choices.
The new Fed rule is a material breach of Basel III, a new development as the US had hitherto been the accord’s main champion. This action undermines the global order without being ostensibly justified by narrower considerations of US national interest.
This article shows some evidence of the decrease in merchandise, capital and, to a lesser extent people to people flows.
The Trump administration’s economic policy is a strange cocktail: one part populist trade protectionism and industrial interventionism; one part classic Republican tax cuts skewed to the rich and industry-friendly deregulation; and one part Keynesian fiscal and monetary stimulus. But it's the Keynesian part that delivers the kick.
Last Friday, Qassem Soleimani, head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards’ QUDS force, was killed by an American airstrike outside Baghdad airport. The Ayatollah was not pleased and Tehran has promised to retaliate. At the time of recording, the world is still waiting to see how Iran might respond. Some of have speculated that they could disrupt the world’s oil markets by closing the Strait of Hormuz, which acts as a vital artery for around a third of the world’s liquefied natural gas and almost a quarter of the world’s oil. Today, oil prices surpassed $70 and if tension escalates the price is bound to grow. How dependent is the global economy on affordable Middle Eastern fossil fuel? This week, Nicholas Barrett is joined by Maria Demertzis and Niclas Poitiers to discuss how the US-Iran hostilities are affecting global economy.
In the last decade, most advanced economies have grown more slowly than before. Slower growth has frequently been seen as a legacy of financial crises, especially that of 2007–2009.