Over the past five years conflict has led to a deterioration of Russo-Ukrainian economic relations while ties with the EU have been deepened. This shift is evident in trade flows: the European Union has become Ukraine’s biggest trading partner, while China is poised to overtake Russia as its second. Natural gas imports from Russia, Ukraine’s prior Achilles heel, have been partially replaced by reverse deliveries from the EU and reduced as result of reform of the gas sector.
In this episode of ‘The Sound of Economics’, Giuseppe Porcaro hosts Hlib Vyshlinsky, executive director of the Centre for Economic Strategy, and Bruegel fellow Marek Dabrowski to discuss what the new Ukrainian government should do to meet the challenges facing the country’s economy.
What can Ukraine do to foster economic growth? How can the EU and other international partners help Ukraine with this process?
The modernisation of the Ukrainian economy and state continues to develop at an unsatisfactory pace due to a lack of pro-reform political consensus. The two upcoming election campaigns in 2019 (presidential and parliamentary) make the reform process even slower and additionally put its effectiveness and sustainability under risk. The international community has a limited toolkit to overcome this stalemate.
Ukraine is running out of time to provide western gas consumers with the necessary trust to abandon the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project.
Ukraine’s late and incomplete economic reform created a class of super-wealthy oligarchs who now stand in the way of further liberalisation. The oligarchs’ oversized influence only deepens public distrust in a structurally weak political system. Nevertheless, Ukraine is making some attempts to uproot corruption and the next steps are clear.
This Policy Contribution analyses the Ukrainian economic, institutional and political reforms of 2014-17 in terms of their sustainability and completeness, and evaluates what remains to be done. Compared to previous attempts, the current reform round has proved more successful and some politically difficult decisions have been taken (for example, the elimination of gas subsidies), but it remains incomplete in many important areas
This paper offers an updated and comprehensive analysis of the currency crises in Russia and the former Soviet Union economies.
Ukraine’s closer ties with the EU have been controversial. The Association Agreement is now facing a referendum in the Netherlands. But what exactly is in the agreement, and what could it mean in practice?
Reform of Ukraine’s gas sector is under threat. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development should step in.
Ukraine is perhaps the most convincing example of a victim of slow reform. Since independence in 1991, it has missed several political windows of opportunity to comprehensively reform its economy and state institutions. Had these reforms been put in place, today Ukraine would be a different country.
In this Policy Contribution Marek Dabrowski argues that Ukraine must accelerate and better manage its reform process so as to overcome fundamental weaknesses in its economy and finances.