Estimates of payments countries will receive from the Next Generation EU instrument can be made with some degree of precision. But estimating countries' repayments up to 2058 is extremely difficult.
If not handled correctly, the European Union’s transition to take on a new role as an issuer of public debt risks crowding out existing markets. Managing that transition correctly is almost as big a challenge as spending the money itself.
How much cake does everyone actually get and at what speed? This blogpost estimates the yearly Next Generation EU (NGEU) payments to each EU country at current prices in euros and as a share of GNI.
To help finance the post-coronavirus recovery, the European Union is raising large amounts to pass on to its members. But absorption of EU funds is typically slow and some countries might struggle to spend what they can get, even if they will have broad freedom to design spending programmes. The focus should be on worthwhile spending, not just on absorbing EU funds.