The debate on euro adoption by central European EU countries has intensified in the last years. In this Policy Contribution the author does not review all the complex aspects of euro-area enlargement, but analyse a particularly important issue: the build-up of macroeconomic vulnerabilities and the subsequent adjustments.
Croatia seems a suitable candidate for euro area accession: there is a tight peg to the euro, high public debt is coming down, and the banking sector is already dominated by euro area banks. But the Eurogroup has rightly targeted reforms of the state’s role in the economy as a precondition for participation in ERM II and the banking union. None of the announced reform plans are new or easily concluded within the timeframe that has now been agreed.
Key learning for euro adoption lies within the experience of southern euro member states and the macroeconomic performance of euro ‘ins’ and ‘outs’ among newer member states. Zsolt Darvas discusses promising signs for eventual euro adoption in Croatia and the unsuitability of the Maastricht fiscal criteria for joining the euro, in his speech delivered at an event organised in the Croatian Parliament on 15 November 2017