Andrea Consiglio
Professor of Mathematical Finance at the University of Palermo, Italy
Andrea Consiglio is a Professor of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Finance at the University of Palermo. He holds a PhD in Applied Mathematics to Finance and Economics and has extensive experience in mathematical finance, risk management, and sovereign debt sustainability. His research interests span from option pricing and portfolio management to stochastic programming and artificial markets. Prof. Consiglio has collaborated with prominent international institutions, including the Bank for International Settlements, the European Stability Mechanism, and the Bank of Finland. He is an Associate Editor for Optimization and Engineering and Risks, and the author of numerous peer-reviewed articles and books on financial optimization and risk management.
Featured work
How much of a threat to US debt sustainability is Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act?
The US should start fiscal adjustment as soon as it can if it wants to head off the risk of exploding debt related to Trump’s tax and spending plan
Sovereigns on thinning ice: debt sustainability, climate impacts and adaptation
Climate change could trigger debt crises, with adaptation providing only partial relief
Climate change is likely to significantly undermine sovereign debt sustainability, especially from the mid-2040s
Are bad governments a threat to sovereign defaults? The effects of political risk on debt sustainability
In this paper, we ask whether the level of political risk in a country threatens its debt sustainability
All work
Analysis
22 September 2025
How much of a threat to US debt sustainability is Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act?
The US should start fiscal adjustment as soon as it can if it wants to head off the risk of exploding debt related to Trump’s tax and spending plan
Working paper
19 May 2025
Analysis
16 April 2025
Climate change could trigger debt crises, with adaptation providing only partial relief
Climate change is likely to significantly undermine sovereign debt sustainability, especially from the mid-2040s
Working paper
21 January 2025
Are bad governments a threat to sovereign defaults? The effects of political risk on debt sustainability
In this paper, we ask whether the level of political risk in a country threatens its debt sustainability
Analysis
16 December 2024
Incorporating political risk into analysis of sovereign debt sustainability
Political risk is not taken into account when assessing whether countries can manage their debts, but it could be and should be
Blog post
12 September 2022
How effective has the pandemic emergency purchase programme been in ensuring debt sustainability?
The ECB’s pandemic emergency purchase programme has improved substantially the debt dynamics of euro-area countries, with durable effects.
Blog post
28 October 2020
Growth uncertainty, European Central Bank intervention and the Italian debt
European Central Bank intervention provides a buffer against the uncertainty faced by European Union economies in the face of COVID-19. For the time b
Blog post
22 January 2020
Incorporating political risks into debt sustainability analysis
DSA applies to crisis countries only, but an early warning system identifying vulnerabilities is relevant for all countries. A more general, less stri