Alicia García-Herrero
Alicia García Herrero is a Senior Fellow at European think-tank BRUEGEL. She is also the Chief Economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis, and a non-resident Senior Follow at the East Asian Institute (EAI) of the National University Singapore (NUS). Alicia is also Adjunct Professor at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. Finally, she is a Member of the Council of Advisors on Economic Affairs to the Spanish Government and an advisor to the Hong Kong Monetary Authority’s research arm (HKIMR) among other advisory and academic positions.
In previous years, Alicia held the following positions: Chief Economist for Emerging Markets at Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA), Member of the Asian Research Program at the Bank of International Settlements (BIS), Head of the International Economy Division of the Bank of Spain, Member of the Counsel to the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, Head of Emerging Economies at the Research Department at Banco Santander, and Economist at the International Monetary Fund. Alicia has maintained a part-time academic life throughout her career as Visiting Professor at John Hopkins University (SAIS program), at the China Europe International Business School (CEIBS) in Shanghai, Carlos III University in Madrid among others.
Alicia holds a PhD in Economics from George Washington University and has published extensively in refereed journals and books (her publications can be found in ResearchGate, Google Scholar, SSRN or REPEC).
Alicia is also very active in international media (Bloomberg and CNBC among others) as well as social media (Twitter and LinkedIn). Alicia was included in the TOP Voices in Economy and Finance by LinkedIn in 2017 and #6 Top Social Media leader by Refinitiv in 2020.
Disclaimer of external interests
Featured work
Ukraine and Taiwan on the Biden-Xi chessboard
Overall, Biden and Xi seem to be converging on their strategies for global dominance
美中兩國博弈持續，亞洲將是焦點
中美兩國在世界棋盤上展開博弈，雙方關係的複雜程度更勝從前。
China’s non-market practices, impact on the world, and what to do about it?
Testimony before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission.
A new kind of Belt and Road Initiative after the pandemic
The Belt and Road Initiative is turning from infrastructure financing into an instrument for Chinese soft and hard power.
中國銀行業能夠渡過房地產風暴嗎？
總體而言，銀行應該有能力吸收房地產相關的資產惡化帶來的影響，因為其僅占總資產的4.5%，但問題在於成本幾何。
香港從離岸金融中心轉向中國金融中心
在這個地緣政治危機一觸即發的時刻，香港已經變成了中國的金融防火牆。
中國監理整頓擴大對國家經濟掌控力
無論是資訊掌控、反壟斷政策，還是收購一度由私人企業主導的房地產業，這類監理整頓行動都在讓國家對中國經濟的影響力日益擴張。
2022 年亞洲成長進入穩定期但需注意重大風險
Omicron影響經濟榮景。
金融脫鉤已成美中過招戰場
經貿對抗綿延無期。
2022年一季度香港經濟收縮，疫情清零代價高昂
我們仍維持2022 年GDP增長 1%的預測。
台灣經濟依然堅挺，但需注意資本外流和中國大陸封控衍生風險
由於全球通脹高企和中國大陸供應鏈受阻，台灣經濟正面臨更多阻力。儘管經濟基本面仍有利於增長，但外部環境惡化可能會增加資本外流風險，並對企業利潤造成影響。
中國資本流動趨勢逆轉 證券投資面臨挑戰
鑒於近期中國副總理劉鶴發表講話後中國債券和股票的息差收窄且前景仍不明朗，短期內我們可能會繼續看到中國證券投資的資本淨流出。 加上外需減弱和進口價格上漲，如果出口支撐不足，貿易順差收窄將給人民幣帶來貶值壓力。
內地次季GDP增長料續承壓
當前的經濟出現一定的挑戰。如果需要實現政府工作報告中預期的5.5%的增長目標，那麼更大力度的經濟政策是有必要的。
俄烏衝突對中國經濟有何影響？
烏克蘭危機對中國造成的影響是負面的，但除了大宗商品價格高企之外，直接影響比較有限。此外，中國對俄烏衝突的立場也關係著經濟影響。
China’s Covid policy to be year’s largest economic shock
Beijing’s ‘dynamic zero-Covid’ policy could devastate the domestic economy, but the effects will also be felt globally.
5.5%增长目标凸显中国政府提振经济的信心
艾西亚认为，今年中国要实现5.5%的增长，还需要更多的政策努力，包括财政和货币刺激。
中國 2021 年的能源短缺對2022 年宏觀經濟前景將有何影響？
2022年值得關注的關鍵問題之一是，在全球能源危機背景下，中國將如何實現其長期的淨零碳排放目標。
Early Warning Brief: China’s contorted response to Russia sanctions
The spectre of a democratic Russia aligned with the West is probably a more serious concern for Beijing than what it risks losing by supporting Russia
Rallying Chinese markets will not be a quick fix for Beijing
Top official makes rare intervention to reassure investors but progress to resolve problems will be difficult.
China can see the limits of bailing out Russia's economy
Beijing will support Moscow as long as it does not fall foul of Western sanctions.
China offers Russia respite but not a solution
Beijing could provide greater assistance to its partner while benefiting from greater energy and military security, but this option is not without ris
Can China bail out Putin?
Even with help from China, Russia will be unable to mitigate the immediate impact of Western sanctions.
與中國的貿易並非俄羅斯的靈丹妙藥
事實上，歐盟始終是俄羅斯最大的交易夥伴，貿易規模遠超中國。
21世紀是“年輕亞洲”的世紀嗎？
“年輕亞洲”為投資者提供了巨大的機會，但只有滿足其基礎設施和能源需求才能激發出這種潛力。
China’s economic support for Russia is not a panacea
The EU is still Russia’s largest trading partner, actually several times bigger than China.
Global chip shortage may soon turn into an oversupply crisis
Only companies investing in advanced semiconductors will see their margins increase.
Will this be the century of youthful Asia?
Youthful Asia offers immense opportunities for investors, but this potential can only be realised if their infrastructure and energy needs are fulfill
East-west divergence in central bank action will not last much longer
Fed shift towards raising rates will make it hard for China and Japan not to tighten monetary policy.
How China’s investment in Middle East is evolving
The share of the Middle East in China’s total overseas investment has declined for several reasons.
In the electric vehicle race, China coming first
China is not only a producer and consumer of EVs, but also of the battery components on which they depend.
亞洲2022年前瞻：經濟穩步復甦，但仍面臨諸多變數
我們預計，亞洲地區的加權平均 GDP 增長率將會從2020 年的 -0.8% 上升到2021年底的6.1%，隨後2022年預計為4.7%。
2022 to see monetary decoupling between West and East
It does not look like the new year is going to be calmer than 2021.
Chinese economic statecraft: what to expect in the next five years?
Chapter from 'Storms Ahead: the Future Geoeconomic world order' on the expectations from the next five years of Chinese economic policy, published on
恆大事件並非偶然，中國房地產業發展模式難以持續
經濟高速增長已不再是中國發展的單一目標，企業在財務上不加節制將會受到反噬。
COP26氣候峰會可達共識較少，恐預示全球應對氣候變化從合作轉為各自為營
G20峰會在氣候問題的討論上未能取得突破性的成果，讓人們看到了COP26氣候峰會上各國達成共識將面臨的難度。
Weak G20 climate pledge doesn’t bode well for COP26
Climate strategists may see a need to shift to a more assertive approach.
COP26: why carbon pricing is crucial to China’s climate change pledges
China’s emissions trading scheme is a welcome but to reach its full potential, it needs to cover more of China’s emissions, go beyond the electricity
疫下新衝擊 全球供應鏈大洗牌
供應鏈從「緊耦合」結構，轉向「鬆耦合」，可能是一種理性的經濟決策，而不僅是政治決策，這個發展趨勢值得留意。
全球經濟反彈起步，中國企業相對優勢轉弱
中國企業財務健康會持續改善，但全球同業也在迎頭趕上。
Xi’s pledge on financing coal plants overseas misses point
China’s domestic installation of coal-fired power plants continues at great pace.
Will China use climate change as a bargaining chip?
Beijing shows signs of changing tactics ahead of the COP26 conference.
A world recovery fund to overcome developing countries’ post-covid debt woes?
Proposal to set up a World Recovery Fund (WRF), aimed at addressing some of the key problems with the design of the DSSI and more generally the existi
What Evergrande signals about China's economic future
Under Xi Jinping's new economic agenda 'common prosperity', China is cracking down on indebted real estate developers like Evergrande.
EU-India trade relations: assessment and perspectives
In-depth analysis prepared for the European Parliament's Committee on International Trade (INTA).
What is behind China's Dual Circulation Strategy?
China's dual circulation strategy should not be dismissed as a buzzword: its implementation will entail major consequences.
Hydrogen development strategies: a global perspective
Despite different strategies, the European Union, the United Kingdom, the United States, China and Japan all expect hydrogen to play a significant rol
中國放寬貨幣政策為應對經濟增速放緩的預防針
降準是緩衝潛在經濟放緩的一劑預防針，但具體的步伐，還會根據未來經濟資料有所調整。
Why China should fear the EU's carbon border tax
Expect Beijing to soon start lobbying against the proposal.
Could the RMB dislodge the dollar as a reserve currency?
The dollar remains the world’s largest reserve currency, but it is facing both domestic and external risks.
新時代的黑金 —— 半導體稀缺將會加劇通脹壓力
生產商計畫產能和全球通脹趨勢將要面臨的一個重要問題是，半導體的需求激增是否只是暫時趨勢?
For the climate, Asia-Pacific must phase out fossil-fuel subsidies
An exit from coal in the Asia-Pacific region is a global decarbonisation priority.
The UK’s security and trade relationship with China
Testimony before the International Relations and Defence Committee at the House of Lords, British Parliament on the UK’s security and trade relationsh
歐洲對不公平競爭的反擊可能尚未觸及根源
中國在國有、民營和外國企業之間建立公平的競爭環境是符合所有人利益的。歐洲執委會最近的措施顯然是退而求其次的選擇。
Europe's crusade to fend off Chinese interference falls short
It is in everybody's interest for China to level the playing field among state-owned, private, and foreign companies so that no new distortionary meas
China’s M&A activity rebounds with a clear focus on Europe
Despite the pandemic, China’s interest in overseas M&A started to rebound in late 2020, with European industrial companies still of particular interes
中國海外並購活躍，歐洲仍是熱門交易對象
2020年並不是中國企業進行海外並購的好年景；但是，得益於下半年中國經濟恢復和全球金融環境寬鬆，中國企業海外並購的趨勢在四季度的時候已經有所好轉。
China has a grand carbon neutrality target but where is the plan?
China’s new long-term targets, to reach peak emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, are yet to be matched with a consistent shor
The EU-China investment deal may be anachronic in a bifurcating world
Ultimately, only time will tell if this landmark trade agreement will be productive and counter the potential bifurcation of international value chain
站在時代岔路口的《中歐投資協定》
只有時間能證明這一具有里程碑意義的貿易協定是否具有成效，能否應對國際價值鏈的潛在分化。
中國兩會的主要目標在於長遠經濟規劃
2021年相對較低的經濟目標實際上有助於保持2021和2022年增長的相對穩定。
Anchoring expectations as Two Sessions’ main objective
Interestingly, the growth target for 2021 is pretty humble: over 6 percent for 2021, while most forecasts hover between 7 and 10 percent.
外國投資者可能會放緩在中國債券市場的步伐
總體而言，誘人的息差縮小和信貸風險的上升可能會削弱此前中國債券的優勢。儘管中國仍在推動債券市場多元化，但越來越多的中國企業被實施制裁對2021年來說並不是個好兆頭。
《中歐投資協定》意義幾何？
總體而言，與中國企業在歐盟的方便之門相比，歐盟期望獲得的更多市場准入還相去甚遠。
資產泡沫無益於疫情後的經濟恢復
新冠疫情帶來的全球經濟危機可以說是公認近些年來最嚴重的，但相比於程度與之最相似的1929年經濟大蕭條，二者對資產價格帶來的影響卻截然不同。
How is the G20 tackling debt problems of the poorest countries?
The G20 Debt Service Suspension Initiative, although a partial success, has been dogged by competing interests and lack of coordination. A further pus
China’s state-owned enterprises and competitive neutrality
The concept of competitive neutrality can be used to assess how far a market is from being a competitive environment. In China, competitive neutrality
Asset bubbles won’t help our post-pandemic recovery
An unintended consequence of the virus has been ‘one of the wildest bull markets in recent economic history’ but a worsening of income distribution wi
中國企業受累貿戰和疫情，但仍優於全球同業
總體上，中國企業的表現半喜半憂：相對全球同業表現較好，但收入下降和槓桿率升高帶來的風險也不容忽視。
銀色經濟機遇與挑戰並存
老齡化為經濟增長帶來不小的壓力。日本和台灣的經驗展現了佔有優勢的行業，以及行業分工得當的重要性。
疫情對全球經濟的結構性改變或比想像的更深
現在是時候重新思考我們目前經濟模式中的基本原理，來減輕這些影響。
RCEP對亞洲影響積極，無阻價值鏈重組
總體而言，雖然RCEP成員之間在市場准入上實際提升幅度有限（例如中國和澳洲），但這一協定的意義在於讓世界意識到，亞洲仍然依賴中國市場，亞洲國家不能錯過中國放寬市場准入的機會，即使幅度有限。
Europe's disappointing investment deal with China
Why rush a deal that is so inherently complex?
Deglobalisation in the context of United States-China decoupling
After decades of increasing globalisation, there now seems to be a slowing, or even a turn to deglobalisation, meaning decelerating trade and investme
When and how should the European Union conclude an investment agreement with China?
A look into the potential Comprehensive Agreement on Investment between China and the European Union.
A silver lining for ageing Asia
An ageing population is generally bad news for growth prospects, but Japan and Taiwan offer important lessons.
Europe is losing competitiveness in global value chains while China surges
The European Union owes much of its economic weight to its regional value chain and integration into the global value chain. But the EU’s global value
RCEP might not stop reshuffling of Asian value chains
China is no doubt bound to benefit, but other members of the regional trade pact may benefit even more
China-EU economic relations in the era of US-China economic competition
Testimony before the European Parliament on the subject of China-EU economic relations.
Hong Kong’s Intermediary Role on Funding the BRI: How does it fare against Singapore?
A look into the intermediary role of Hong Kong in financing cross-border Belt and Road Initiative projects and compare it with Singapore, a similar of
Fifth Plenum maps China’s response to a more hostile world
'The Communist Party has acknowledged that the outside world now is more of a risk than an opportunity.'
China's yuan nowhere near cracking US dollar hegemony
For all Beijing's ambitions of cracking the hegemony of the US dollar in the face of Trump administration sanctions, the yuan still has a long way to
Politics, not economics, demands a strengthened international role for the euro
Not just the EU but also other countries, particularly China, need a defence against weaponisation of the dollar.
ECFA重要性遞減 台灣出口未來關鍵 在保持科技優勢和出口多元化
從地緣政治角度來看，ECFA自動延續無疑是個好消息，但協議對台灣經濟的直接影響較過去變得有限。雖然台灣對中國大陸的出口仍然重要，但ECFA占整體出口的重要性因資通訊科技產業快速發展而縮小。由於台灣在全球製造業供應鏈遷移和價值鏈重組中占有重要位置，未來對美國和東南亞出口預計將會加速。
The pandemic will structurally change the global economy more than we think
It is time to rethink many of the basic principles of our economic model to mitigate the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.
中歐峰會名不副實，未來之路漸行漸遠
視訊會議的討論充滿政治性和爭議性，很明顯繼2019年新的中歐戰略承認系統性對手的關係後，中歐之交再次降到新低。
中國“雙循環”戰略引發其他出口國擔憂？
相較于再平衡戰略，雙循環戰略對世界其他地區的比例影響可能大得多。隨著中國將注意力轉向十四五規劃，雙循環可能作為中期目標，將對中國和交易夥伴都產生影響。
Non-summit shows EU-China ties at new low
There was nothing concrete to justify calling this video conference an EU-China Summit.
China's 'dual circulation' plan is bad news for others' exports
全球為數不多 台灣今年經濟有望正成長
台灣的貨幣政策和大多數國家相比仍屬相對緊縮，台幣升幅也是相對有限。總的來說，台灣第二季的GDP與其他國家相較算是非常優異，主因是行動管制少，所以衝擊也小得多。
Coronavirus recovery: invest rainy day savings to boost Hong Kong’s economy
The Hong Kong government might want to consider diversifying its economy by using part of the savings earmarked for rainy days. Beyond cushioning the
China Has an Unfair Advantage in the EU Market. What Can Be Done to Level the Playing Field?
China's targeted corporate shopping spree to continue, especially in Europe
Expect small, below the radar deals to continue to flourish and, by the same token, Europe to lose part of its edge in industrial technology and other
Debt relief for Sub-Saharan Africa: what now?
When G20 finance heads meet on 18 July, Europe will again need to lead on the group’s flagship COVID-19 initiative to postpone low-income countries’ d
Credible emerging market central banks could embrace quantitative easing to fight COVID-19
Emerging economies are fighting COVID-19 and the economic sudden stop imposed by the containment and lockdown policies, in the same way as advanced ec
Toward a smart Indian response to China
Rather than risking its soldiers' lives on the border, India should join 'middle power' economic coalitions to address China's behavior.
EU-China trade and investment relations in challenging times
In this report, we have focused on trade and investment relations and have not attempted to define the many other policy instruments that the EU can a
Covid-19 and emerging economies: What to expect in the short- and medium-term
COVID-19’s reality shock for external-funding dependent emerging economies
COVID-19 is by far the biggest challenge policymakers in emerging economies have had to deal with in recent history. Beyond the potentially large nega
Reading tea leaves from China’s two sessions: Large monetary and fiscal stimulus and still no growth guarantee
The announcement of a large stimulus without a growth target indicates that China’s recovery is far from complete.
Covid19 and emerging economies
What to expect in the short and medium term? Covid-19 will consequently push for a quick reshuffling of the global value chain away from the emerging