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Why does turnout matter in the European elections?

Publishing date
07 June 2024
Authors
Heather Grabbe
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Turnout of voters is an under-estimated data-point in European elections. In 2019, more than half of voters turned out for the first time in 25 years, breaking the trend of declining participation at every election down to the historic low of 42.61% in 2014.

Turnout matters greatly this time for three reasons: the first is that low participation usually disadvantages left-leaning and ideologically moderate parties. The populist radical right could gain more seats as a result, especially because voters tend to punish parties in power in European elections.

The second reason is democratic legitimacy. When fewer than a quarter of voters bother to participate – as happened in Slovakia in 2019 – then the European Parliament’s claim to be the voice of the people is in jeopardy. In 2014, only eight countries managed to get more than 50% of their voters to the polls.

The third reason is that young people tend to keep voting if they establish the habit early. In 2019, the largest turnout differentials were for the under-25s (+14 percentage points) and 25-39-year-olds (+12 percentage points). This time, 16- and 17-year-olds will be able to vote for the first time in five countries that have lowered the voting age in the hope of raising participation (Austria, Belgium, Germany, Greece and Malta).

The youth vote mobilised largely around climate change and environmental degradation in 2019, creating a green wave that raised the European Union’s ambitions to create the European Green Deal. This time around, combatting climate change is still among their top priorities, along with fighting poverty and exclusion, whereas the older generations care more about health and economic growth. Watch out for mobilisation of young voters because it matters for the green agenda as well as future participation in European elections.

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About the authors

  • Heather Grabbe

    Heather Grabbe is a Senior fellow at Bruegel, as well as visiting professor at University College London and KU Leuven. The focus of her research is the political economy of the European Green Deal and how the climate transition will change the EU’s international relationships and external policies.

    She is a political scientist who has served as director of the Open Society European Policy Institute in Brussels, and earlier as deputy director of the Centre for European Reform in London. She conducted academic research at the European University Institute, Chatham House, Oxford and Birmingham universities, as well as teaching at the London School of Economics. From 2004 to 2009 Heather was senior advisor to then European Commissioner Olli Rehn, responsible in his Cabinet for policy on the Balkans and Turkey. She has written extensively on the political economy of EU enlargement, the EU’s external and neighbourhood policies, and the evolution of new policy agendas in climate, digital and the rule of law. Her columns appear in the Financial Times, Politico and other quality media.

    Heather earned her PhD at Birmingham University, and her first degree in politics, philosophy and economics at Oxford University, where she also had a post-doctoral fellowship. She is fluent in English, French and Italian, with working level German.

Keyword
WhyAxis newsletter
Language
English

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