What lessons can Ukraine learn from the Gulf?

The US-Israeli attack on Iran has already, due to Iranian retaliation strategy against the broader Gulf region, wreaked havoc on global energy markets as European LNG prices have risen from about €30/MW to now €50. The most significant impact, however, may be on the adoption and evolution of air defences.

The Gulf Arab states now face the military challenge that Ukraine has sustained for years – having to defend themselves against hundreds of drone attacks. Consequently, the Gulf region, the Trump administration and European governments keen to reduce the risk to energy markets and infrastructure from Iranian drone strikes are now urgently seeking access to Ukraine’s expertise and innovative air defence technology.

Only Ukraine has developed and produces the type of cheap interceptor drones that will enable the Gulf states to defeat low-cost Iranian drones in a cost-effective manner, saving far more expensive interceptor missiles to counter Iran’s far less numerous ballistic missiles. This sudden demand for its technology from its allies and very wealthy Gulf states offers Ukraine a huge opportunity to bargain for access to weapons Kyiv itself desperately needs.

In return for sending technological expertise and interceptor drones to the Gulf area, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has asked for Patriot air defence missiles, and could also pressure the Trump administration and European governments to supply Kyiv with other, much needed, longer-range weapons to strike deep inside Russia.

Events in the Persian Gulf have thus put Ukraine’s military air defence innovation at the centre of attempts to prevent Iran from destabilising global energy markets and could yet yield important advantages for Kyiv in its fight against Russia’s invasion.

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