How will population ageing affect the EU?

Populations are ageing across the European Union and this demographic transition will have wide-ranging effects on European economies. The working age population is projected to decline in 22 of 27 EU countries between 2023 and 2050. The EU as a whole is projected to enter a period of steady population decline from 2026.

While all EU countries will get older, this transition will not be uniform across countries and geographical areas. In a Policy Brief published in March, we look at differences in projected population trends between Southern, Eastern, Northern and Western EU areas, as well as between countries.

Eastern European countries are expected to experience the sharpest population decline between 2023 and 2050, with an average yearly decline of 3.2 people per 1,000 residents, followed by Southern European countries with 0.4 per 1,000 residents. Western and Northern European countries, on the other hand, are projected to experience average yearly population growth of 1.1 and 2.6 people per 1,000 residents.

Looking at the drivers behind total population change, two counteracting trends emerge. Average yearly natural population change, the difference between births and deaths, is projected to be negative in all four country groups over the same time frame. The most negative change is expected in Eastern and Southern countries. Net migration, on the other hand, is projected to be positive in all groups, and weakest in the East, while strongest in the South. In other words, populations are projected to grow solely in areas where net migration is large enough to counteract low fertility.

These different trends should be taken into account when designing policies to respond to population ageing.

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