How should the EU balance short-term gas needs with long-term climate goals?

What options does Europe have to ensure long-term energy security in the context of short-term supply concerns?

About a quarter of the European Union’s total energy use is met from natural gas, notwithstanding the transition towards renewable energy.

Most of this natural gas is imported. Norway is now the largest supplier, providing one-third of the EU’s gas, while the United States provides a quarter in the form of liquified natural gas (LNG), recently hitting record monthly LNG exports to Europe. Gas still comes from Russia via one pipeline and as LNG, though Russia’s share has dropped from 43% of gas imports in 2021 to 13% so far in 2025. The EU plans to phase out Russian gas by 2027, with new measures to be announced on 17 June.

Europe currently faces supply concerns, with some uncertainty about preparedness for next winter. The EU ended winter 2024/2025 with lower gas reserves than in the past two years, while Ukrainian storage is at record seasonal lows – 8% of capacity. Reverse gas flows from Europe to Ukraine have increased above usual seasonal levels. Simultaneously, summer gas prices are surpassing winter levels, increasing storage refilling costs.

Securing enough affordable gas for next winter is challenging. Gas purchasing decisions are company-led and price-driven, with no EU-wide coordination. The fragmented approach creates a risk that long-term supplies will be locked in beyond 2030, when EU demand will decline. Locking in new supplies could also make the EU dependent on other suppliers, as it was previously on Russia.

To move beyond such uncertainty, Europe has a range of tools for the longer term. More deployment of domestic renewable energy generation would reduce reliance on external suppliers. Cutting gas demand would also mean the EU can become more selective about its gas suppliers. Tools such as carbon pricing can limit gas exporters’ pricing power and shift value to the EU through revenues from emissions allowances. Tariffs could discourage reliance on risky or concentrated suppliers. Formulating a plan for long-term energy security requires the EU to make coordinated strategic decisions on gas supply and policy.

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