How much leverage does US energy give Washington over Europe?

While the European Union cuts reliance on Russian fossil-fuel imports, energy imports from the United States have risen. The US supplies about one-fifth of the EU’s imports of natural gas, crude oil, coal and uranium. This shift comes as Washington reiterates its ‘energy dominance’ objective, framing energy exports not only as commercial flows but also as tools of geopolitical influence. 

Yet the EU depends less on US energy now than it did on Russian energy in 2021. Moreover, the US administration does not, in principle, determine where private energy companies sell their products, unlike in Russia, where the state controls exports. 

The structure of energy markets also limits US leverage. US liquified natural gas (LNG) is shipped by sea and traded globally, so EU buyers can switch suppliers more easily, unlike Russian gas which is locked in by infrastructure. Europe has also cut gas demand by one fifth since the 2022 energy crisis, allowing supplies to last longer.

Oil markets are even more global and diversified, limiting any single exporter’s leverage, and strategic oil reserves can be released in emergencies. Coal is also widely traded and declining in Europe’s energy mix. Nuclear energy supply chains are diversified across the fuel cycle and EU-US dependence is mutual.

Washington’s direct leverage over the EU is thus limited, it can still affect Europe indirectly. For example, prices spiked after the US-Israel attack on Iran in March 2026, just as Europe faces the challenge of refilling its gas reserves after winter. The real challenge for Europe is exposure to volatile global fossil-fuel markets, where geopolitics can affect global prices.

To ensure the EU’s energy security, the solution lies in continuing to reduce fossil-fuel demand and building up strategic gas reserves to weather short-term disruptions.