How can Europe stress test its reliance on US military exports?

Worries about Europe’s dependence on the United States military industrial base are not new, but they have been exacerbated with the deterioration of the transatlantic relationship under the Trump administration. Some countries, such as Denmark, are already favouring European products over US ones. Multiple reasons for this are debated: the risk of limited US production capacity causing delivery delays, the possibility of Asia being prioritised over Europe as an export destination and finally the (even low probability) threat that critical software updates for American weapons systems could be suspended if relations were to worsen – leading to new vulnerabilities. 

In a new paper, we assess these risks. A new dataset covering all notifications under the US Foreign Military Sales programme since 2008 allows us to establish that Europe has substantially increased its military purchases from the US in the last four years. This has provided critical supplies at short notice, but these purchases have also reinforced US tech leadership and deepened European dependence by slowing the emergence and growth of strong domestic competitors. This dependence is particularly significant for high-tech equipment – including air defence, missiles and fighter jets – and for supporting equipment and services such as advanced software and its subsequent upkeep.

We argue that this strategic reliance on the US – even when relations are warmer – gives the US problematic leverage over Europe in other policy areas, such as trade. European policymakers should assess the extent of US dependence and develop a strategy to minimise its risks; a stress test is needed. As defence budgets rise, European production of key weapon systems must outpace demand to gradually reduce external reliance. Policymakers should review critical technological dependencies, even for procurement directed at national producers, and upgrade Europe’s technological base without increasing external dependence. Given the diversity of national strategic cultures within Europe, building consensus is paramount.