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How can Europe lead a ‘coalition of the middle powers’?

Publishing date: 18 May 2026
Authors: Niclas Poitiers

The 20 January Davos speech by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney calling for a ‘coalition of the middle powers’ resonated with many countries looking for ways to regain stability in the international order. At the 4 May European Political Community meeting, Carney directly called on Europe to play a leading role in rebuilding the international order.

This sentiment will flatter Brussels, which has lately prioritised building strategic autonomy in domains such as defence, finance and digital. However, if the European Union is serious about playing this role, it will need to rely on a more subtle aspect of European soft power: the predictability and relative openness of the EU’s process-focused policymaking culture.

The EU policymaking process is often seen as a hinderance to European interests, and it will indeed have to adapt or risk being outmanoeuvred by more nimble players. Nevertheless, reform should seek to maintain its predictability – a major asset in a volatile geopolitical environment. Since the EU lacks the financial and military clout of traditional superpowers, the attractiveness of its ecosystems will rest on its openness to third countries.

This means that while the EU should be reciprocal in its bilateral relations, it needs to avoid undermining its credibility with beggar-thy-neighbour approaches and exert restraint when protecting its industries. Policies such as the Industrial Accelerator Act or the upcoming Chips Act 2.0 should be designed with the explicit goal of integrating partner economies, as should the next iteration of Horizon Europe. As a trading power, positioning itself at the centre of international economic networks would also bring tangible benefits to the European economy. The EU’s openness and predictability may yet serve as the stable international anchor that Carney called for.