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How can Europe defend itself without the US?

Publishing date: 10 March 2025
Authors: Guntram B. Wolff

With the transatlantic alliance as we know it coming to an end, Europe is scrambling to adjust. Alexandr Burilkov and I have provided a first estimate of what Europe would need to defend itself without the United States.

Ukraine’s security is in the European Union’s core interest as Ukraine defends not only its own territory and sovereignty but also the EU’s. The US decision to pause intelligence sharing and weapons deliveries leaves Ukraine weakened, exposing the country’s vulnerability in the face of a withdrawal of US support.

Military capability across the EU is insufficient to effectively deter Russia from attacking, but across the EU, countries are increasing defence spending. Germany’s likely new government plans to change its constitutional debt brake to exempt defence spending above 1% of GDP from the strict rules and create a €500 billion fund for infrastructure investment.

Today, EU leaders are discussing the European Commission’s proposal to exempt defence spending from the EU fiscal rules and provide €150 billion in loans to EU member states for defence investment.

Policymakers should now focus on three fundamental policy principles:

First, the creation of a single market for defence. Increased competition among suppliers will provide more defence capabilities per euro spent and increase choice.

Second, joint procurement of defence equipment. This would ensure compatible standards across European armies, and make larger orders possible, leading to lower prices per unit.

Third, increased EU-level defence investment and assistance for EU countries. Much of the equipment currently provided by the US cannot be provided by any EU country alone. Satellite-based intelligence sharing or hypersonic missile programmes should become major European investments. Ultimately, national borrowing should be complemented by a European debt-financed fund focused on procuring EU-wide defence equipment and supporting countries most directly exposed.

As Europe increases its borrowing, credible plans need to be made to gradually adjust regular budgets so that deficits can fall, and defence spending becomes a more important part of the budget.

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About the authors

Guntram B. Wolff

Guntram Wolff is a Senior fellow at Bruegel. He is also a Professor of Economics at the Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB).

From 2022-2024, he was the Director and CEO of the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) and from 2013-22 the director of Bruegel. Over his career, he has contributed to research on European political economy, climate policy, geoeconomics, macroeconomics and foreign affairs. His work was published in academic journals such as Nature, Science, Research Policy, Energy Policy, Climate Policy, Journal of European Public Policy, Journal of Banking and Finance. His co-authored book “The macroeconomics of decarbonization” is published in Cambridge University Press.

An experienced public adviser, he has been testifying twice a year since 2013 to the informal European finance ministers’ and central bank governors’ ECOFIN Council meeting on a large variety of topics. He also regularly testifies to the European Parliament, the Bundestag and speaks to corporate boards. In 2020, Business Insider ranked him one of the 28 most influential “power players” in Europe. From 2012-16, he was a member of the French prime minister’s Conseil d’Analyse Economique. In 2018, then IMF managing director Christine Lagarde appointed him to the external advisory group on surveillance to review the Fund’s priorities. In 2021, he was appointed member and co-director to the G20 High level independent panel on pandemic prevention, preparedness and response under the co-chairs Tharman Shanmugaratnam, Lawrence H. Summers and Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala. From 2013-22, he was an advisor to the Mastercard Centre for Inclusive Growth. He is a member of the Bulgarian Council of Economic Analysis, the European Council on Foreign Affairs and advisory board of Elcano. He is also a fellow at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

Guntram joined Bruegel from the European Commission, where he worked on the macroeconomics of the euro area and the reform of euro area governance. Prior to joining the Commission, he worked in the research department at the Bundesbank, which he joined after completing his PhD in economics at the University of Bonn. He also worked as an external adviser to the International Monetary Fund. He is fluent in German, English, and French. His work is regularly published and cited in leading media.

Language: English

About the authors

Guntram B. Wolff

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