How can the EU affordably rearm itself?

The reemergence of expansionist Russian military aggression to the EU’s east and the ongoing reorientation of the US’ national security focus towards China have made a significant and permanent increase in European defence expenditure inevitable. The ‘peace dividend era’, which began in the early 1990s, is over. Our ageing continent, which is rightly proud of its high, and rising, social spending levels, now needs to adapt to a new security environment through a cost-conscious rearmament strategy.

In an upcoming paper, I outline the key role Ukraine can play in the EU’s affordable defence buildup. The EU must help Ukraine win the war against Russia and grant the country EU membership, integrating its rapidly growing military production capacity into the emerging pan-European defence sector. The following factors make Ukraine a potential key player in EU rearmament:

1) Ukraine will have by far the lowest military production costs in the EU by the end of the war due to its wage and investment cost structure.

2) War-time necessity has taught Ukrainian military producers to integrate cheaper commercially available parts and materials into new low-cost weapons systems.

3) Europe’s largest defence manufacturers are already setting up production facilities in Ukraine to produce heavy weaponry, and commercial logic will see them establish additional production facilities there after the war.

4) Ukraine’s domestic military production and ability to deliver low-cost weaponry in a timely manner is already being scaled up by EU governments through the ‘Danish model’.

5) Ukraine’s future status as the EU’s de facto security provider against Russia will help to overcome other EU countries’ concerns about sharing the most advanced military technology with Ukraine.

Ukrainian victory in the war against Russia and Ukraine’s integration in the EU are the best means to drive down rearmament costs for the EU. With the right support, and through sectoral EU defence integration, Ukraine can become the EU’s arsenal of democracy.

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