What Europe can expect of Trump: a timeline

When Dwight D. Eisenhower said “plans are worthless, but planning is everything”, he meant that plans often prove useless when they are overtaken by events. But, he added, “if you haven't been planning you can't start to work, intelligently at least”. In this spirit of his guidance, we offer a speculative timeline of what European policymakers might face from the return of President Trump: 

Immediate:

Trump has expressed clear policy preferences on some measures – and they can be implemented quickly through executive orders.

• Withdrawal from the Paris Agreement
  Rejoining the global climate deal was one of the Biden administration’s first executive orders. It would be symbolic to reverse this decision immediately. Another reason to announce withdrawal early is the Paris Agreement’s three-year exit period.

• Expansion of support for Israel
  Non-financial support for the Israeli government, such as diplomatic backing and military posturing, could come early; more financial support depends on control of the House of Representatives.

 Short term (spring to summer 2025)

Some measures are a priority for Trump but may be somewhat complex to put in place – for example because Senate approval is needed for appointments and there may be legal challenges.

• Trump tariffs
  Few policy preferences are as clear as Trump’s wish to impose tariffs. Business lobbying for exemptions and the appointment of a new US trade representative might delay them.

• Start of deportations 
  Deporting illegal migrants is a clear priority, but the financial interests of certain sectors could be harmed and implementation could prove tricky. Extension beyond symbolic measures might take some time.

• New Ukraine strategy
  The complexity of an issue involving trade-offs from Trump’s perspective means a new Ukraine strategy might take time to emerge. He has said he doesn’t want to pay for European security, but the US has both a hard-power interest in not ceding influence and a financial interest in continuing arms sales to Ukraine.

• Dismissal of public-sector employees 
  Re-implementation of a rule introduced at the end of Trump’s first term that allows large-scale dismissal of civil servants (Schedule F) will take time, with regulation introduced by Biden delaying the process.

• Scrapping of non-business-oriented climate funding
  Scrapping the Inflation Reduction Act would hurt business interests in Republican states. In the short-term, defunding of other climate policies (eg funding for agencies and research projects) is more likely.

Medium term (2025-2026)

Lower priority and more complex measures.

• Appointment of new administration officials
  Staffing the administration with loyalists will take some time, as will a reduction in the headcount of agencies disliked by Trump (such as the Environmental Protection Agency).

• Tax reductions
  Further tax reductions are a priority for Trump but are complex legally and politically. Control of the House of Representatives would be required. Implementation of international tax agreements (the Base Erosion and Profit Shifting agreement) is unlikely to advance.

• Scrapping of funding for national science projects 
  Climate and environmental sciences will likely face budget cuts, as might science more generally.

• Disruption at health agencies
  Trump intents to put anti-vaxxer Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in charge of federal health agencies. This could lead to significant disruptions to their functions.

• Scrapping of environmental regulations

  Given Trump’s distaste for environmental regulation, a number of rules can be expected to be abandoned, going hand-in-hand with the dismantling of regulatory agencies such as the EPA.

• NATO defence spending

  During his first administration, Trump pressured NATO members to increase defence spending. We can expect a repeat linked to his Ukraine strategy.

• Deregulation of crypto
  Cryptocurrencies featured in the Trump campaign and their deregulation is likely, eg by directing the Securities and Exchange Commission to treat cryptocurrencies more favourably.

• Digital regulation
  Given that Elon Musk is set to play an important role in the next administration, we can expect his unconstrained approach to social media to receive a boost, along with deregulation. Big tech companies disliked by Trump, such as Alphabet, might face legal challenges from the government (eg through competition policy). 

• More aggressive China policy
  Further escalation of US-China tension seems likely, not just in terms of tariffs. 

Longer-medium term (2026-2028)
Policies during the second part of Trump’s term.

• Deregulation of financial services
  This can be expected in line with the theme of deregulation and destruction of the administrative state.

• Fed appointments
  Jerome Powell’s terms as Federal Reserve System head chair ends in 2026 (his term as governor ends in 2028). The terms of two other governors end in 2026, and another ends in 2027.

• New judicial appointments 
  Continuation can be expected of the first Trump administration’s policy of using judicial appointments to shape the US legal system for the long term.

• Funding for multilateral institutions 
  Given Trump’s tit-for-tat worldview, US funding cuts could await multilateral institutions that provide global public goods.

• Reallocation of US military assets
  A new US foreign policy is likely to lead to a change in the deployment of US military assets.

While this timeline is speculative, a theme emerges from it: an expectation that the US will withdraw from leadership on climate, multilateral economic institutions and global security. For EU policymakers, the challenge will be to fill the vacuum.